If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

davomcdave wrote: »

Out of interest how do you think Dimon knows that JP Morgan will be able to service clients from the UK post-Brexit? The fact is that he has no idea. If the EU insists that Euro trades clear in the Eurozone, rather as Australia insists that CHESS settlements are completed in Australia, then a pretty good chunk of JPM will have to move to the EU. Far from all of them and I don't know their business model well enough to know how much but it will be more than a trivial number for an international broker-dealer.

As was pointed out last year, the number expected to move is trivial in the context of the daily staff churn in the City, another fact you guys refused to engage with.


You also refuse to explore all the opportunities Brexit brings and the jobs potential. Why you refuse to engage with the opportunity upsides is anyone's guess.


Here's one of the pieces of evidence your side endlessly ignores, this one from last year;




MOODY’S ASSESMENT OF CITY PROSPECTS;


In a boost to the City, analysts at Moody’s Investors Service have largely dismissed concerns that London would be unable to withstand the consequences of the UK leaving the single market, arguing the loss of passports would be “manageable” for most banks and financial services firms.


While analysts at Moody’s agreed that leaving the EEA was likely to result in the forfeit of passports, they argued that the EU’s forthcoming Mifid 2 directive on financial services regulation, which comes into force in 2018, would make up for much of the loss. Under Mifid 2, the UK will have to adopt an equivalent regulatory regime to the EU, potentially giving firms an alternative access point to the single market


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/19/banks-can-cope-with-loss-of-eu-passports-after-brexit-says-moody/

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

You need to read your links more carefully.

Projects.

If you want to talk actual value, Arklight provided a link earlier in the thread.

https://en.portal.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/united-kingdom/foreign-investment

I do so like to see wriggling in vain attempts.
Rather than one Santander-interpreted report regarding "value" I will go with the Government and also the majority if you don't mind.
Is there a problem with the word "projects" in relation to investment?
Explain why?

India's investments in the UK zoomed nearly 65 per cent in 2015, establishing it as the third largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Britain after the US and France.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/India-becomes-3rd-largest-source-of-FDI-into-UK-as-investments-increase-65-in-2015-Report/articleshow/52042011.cms

According to UK Office for National Statistics, the value of Indian FDI into the UK has registered a notable increase between 2004 and 2013, from £164 million to £1.9 billion. UK attracts more Indian investments than the rest of the EU altogether.

https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/UK-Jan_2016_en.pdf

Last year, India emerged as the third largest investor in the UK.

https://yourstory.com/2016/05/ukti-uk-india-collaboration/

At the same time, India is the third-largest investor in the UK. Indian companies invest more in the UK than the rest of the EU combined. More than 800 Indian companies currently operate in the UK, employing more than 110,000 people.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/tYnGlzIRl946XFhREE9CHL/The-prospects-of-UKIndia-economic-ties.html

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

Remainers have this resigned council of despair attitude, whereas I say we must ensure the unemployed work for their living.

Conrad you can't ensure the unemployed work for a living because they get paid too much to not work - and the solution to that has been 100% within this government and all previous government's control and is nothing whatsoever to do with the EU.

Most people in this country are completely unwilling to move to where the jobs are - so we pay a million people to stay where the jobs aren't. That won't be fixed by Brexit.

mayonnaise

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I do so like to see wriggling in vain attempts.
Rather than one Santander-interpreted report regarding "value" I will go with the Government and also the majority if you don't mind.
Is there a problem with the word "projects" in relation to investment?
Explain why?

I have no problem with the word 'project', but it's meaningless. I would have thought a better measure of inward investment would be actual Sterling value, don't you agree?

So, instead of tapping "India third biggest inward investor in the UK" in your Google and pasting links which once more refer to 'projects' why don't you produce a link to some kind of stat or report which places India 3rd place with regards to inward investment.

Cheers.

Conrad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Conrad you can't ensure the unemployed work for a living because they get paid too much to not work - and the solution to that has been 100% within this government and all previous government's control and is nothing whatsoever to do with the EU.

Most people in this country are completely unwilling to move to where the jobs are - so we pay a million people to stay where the jobs aren't. That won't be fixed by Brexit.

Yes I agree with you it's been in our control, however, having FOM was a great excuse to do nothing.


Once that's removed (and yes it will be significantly curtailed), voters have far better leverage over UK politicians to deliver on getting lots of the unemployed off their bums. The dependency culture is not a given - we made it - we can unmake it given the right political landscape


Furthermore, wages should rise when labour is constrained some, thus giving greater incentive to work. No need to post one of your bar charts on income and immigration btw - they are nonsense for many reasons.


Companies need to get back into engaging with the young and on the job training instead of the lazy 'solution' of tapping into mass immigration. Poor nations need to hang on to their talent you know. You never care how their old folk will fare when abandoned.


And yes I expect total immigration to be bought well down, if not, heads will roll - voters will not in future think the EU is to blame - its clear cut

TrickyTree83

mayonnaise wrote: »

I have no problem with the word 'project', but it's meaningless. I would have thought a better measure of inward investment would be actual Sterling value, don't you agree?

So, instead of tapping "India third biggest inward investor in the UK" in your Google and pasting links which once more refer to 'projects' why don't you produce a link to some kind of stat or report which places India 3rd place with regards to inward investment.

Cheers.

Out of the top 5, how many do you think are EU countries?

And then what about the top 10?

What about the top 90% of FDI, how many EU countries are in that do you think?

(p.s. I have the answers from the OECD .stat tool)

Moby

Brexit is 'catfight in Conservative party that got out of hand', says Verhofstadt And here is an extract from Guy Verhofstadt’s speech. Perhaps it was always impossible to unite Great Britain with the continent. Naive to reconcile the legal system of Napoleon with the common law of the British empire. Perhaps it was never meant to be. But, our predecessors should never be blamed for having tried. Never. It’s as important in politics as it is in life: to try; new partnerships, new horizons, to reach out to each other, the other side of the Channel. I am also sure that - one day or another - there will be a young man or woman who will try again, who will lead Britain into the European family once again. A young generation that will see Brexit for what it really is: a catfight in the Conservative party that got out of hand, a loss of time, a waste of energy, stupidity. Let’s not forget: Britain entered the union as the ‘sick man of Europe’ and - thanks to the single market - came out of the other side. Europe made Britain also punch above its weight in terms of geopolitics, as in the heydays of the British empire. And we from our side must pay tribute to Britain’s immense contributions: a staunch, unmatched defender of free markets and civil liberties. Thank you for that. As a liberal, I tell you, I will miss that.

mayonnaise

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Out of the top 5, how many do you think are EU countries?

And then what about the top 10?

What about the top 90% of FDI, how many EU countries are in that do you think?

(p.s. I have the answers from the OECD .stat tool)

No idea Tricky.
Is India 3rd in your tool?

cogito

Moby wrote: »

Brexit is 'catfight in Conservative party that got out of hand', says Verhofstadt And here is an extract from Guy Verhofstadt’s speech. Perhaps it was always impossible to unite Great Britain with the continent. Naive to reconcile the legal system of Napoleon with the common law of the British empire. Perhaps it was never meant to be. But, our predecessors should never be blamed for having tried. Never. It’s as important in politics as it is in life: to try; new partnerships, new horizons, to reach out to each other, the other side of the Channel. I am also sure that - one day or another - there will be a young man or woman who will try again, who will lead Britain into the European family once again. A young generation that will see Brexit for what it really is: a catfight in the Conservative party that got out of hand, a loss of time, a waste of energy, stupidity. Let’s not forget: Britain entered the union as the ‘sick man of Europe’ and - thanks to the single market - came out of the other side. Europe made Britain also punch above its weight in terms of geopolitics, as in the heydays of the British empire. And we from our side must pay tribute to Britain’s immense contributions: a staunch, unmatched defender of free markets and civil liberties. Thank you for that. As a liberal, I tell you, I will miss that.

Verhofspit really is an idiot. The Single Market was an idea that originated in the UK and is possibly Margaret Thatcher's greatest achievement in seeing it through from conception to birth. Typical of him to suggest that the EU should take the credit. He was right about entering as the 'Sick man of Europe' thanks to industrial unrest and trying to keep dying industries on their feet but the UK addressed that problem, not the EU, the world capital of youth unemployment.

As for making Britain punch above its weight, don't make me laugh.

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

As I've always said, Remainers have this resigned council of despair attitude, whereas I say we must ensure the unemployed work for their living. We have to be more imaginative and resolved to the idea many of the answers are staring us in the face.


Same story with lack of on the job training - we need to re-learn old habits and stop relying on the lazy answer of importing people


Farmers might have to pay a living wage, you know so ALL OF US GET A FAIR SHOT AT LIFE.
If prices rise a bit, well that's a price worth paying for a more cohesive society - and we have an obesity crisis - so if budgets are squeezed, there's a good reason to consume a little less


Instead of throwing up hands in despair, lets explore the answers

Yes, how stupid of me. 48% of the UK's population is a completely homogeneous mass. Do you actually believe this rubbish? I sincerely hope not. How do you think the harvest was brought in before the EEC? It wasn't a bunch of ruddy-faced yeomen earning a living wage while cheerily stacking potatoes into baskets weaved by their wives. Generally the harvest was brought in by poorly paid urban workers who spent their annual holidays living in tents and picking whatever it was needed to be picked.

That source of labour has pretty much all gone. I guess you could get students to bring in the harvest if you messed about with the university year a bit but you appear to dismiss Millennials as being a bunch of sooks that get upset if their iPhones get dirty.

So let's imagine that there is this group of unemployed or underemployed British working class that wants to get out in the fields come rain and shine to sing merry songs in return for an honest day's pay and maybe the odd snaffled strawberry. How much do you think they'll earn and what extra costs have to be imposed on British farmers in your Utopia before they can no longer compete with EU-based farmers who can still access cheap eastern European labour?

We can tell exactly how competitive British farming is at present by the vast amounts of food imported each year. Paying out more in wages isn't going to make British farming more competitive and the more expensive British food gets the more British families will buy cheaper food from abroad.

I suppose you could import your strawberries from India or Canada. How much does it cost in air freight to bring them over? I prefer my strawberries to be fresh rather than a month old by the time they hit the shelves.