If we vote for Brexit what happens

vivatifosi

davomcdave wrote: »

You don't seem to believe in simple bookkeeping either.

If you put up the costs across an industry then the companies that were making a small profit will go bust unless they are sheltered from competition. You have already stated that you want Brexit to put up costs for British farmers so you want British farmers to go bust.

You are entitled to your opinion of course but I don't see how Britain becomes a better place by sending farmers bankrupt.

If tariffs are set high enough then I guess your idea of expensive solutions would work but it would mean much higher prices for households' food. In that case great, I guess at least. Instead of cheap Italian tomatoes we dig big holes in the ground in which to grow expensive British ones. I mean that doesn't seem like a great solution to me but hey, British tomatoes, wooooo!

We get 54% of our food from the UK, 27% from the EU, 4% from each of Africa, Asia, N america and s america. 2% from rest of Europe and 1% from Australasia.

An easy win in terms of food security would be to support UK farms on CAP terms at least in the years post Brexit. It also makes great sense, both for us and the EU, to continue to buy food from the Eu. It makes no sense for either side to introduce tariffs when from the UK side it would impact food security and from the EU side cause an even greater drain on CAP.

I can't see why we wouldn't recruit overseas workers to do picking.

cogito

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Good grief - and you accuse us of a 'counsel of despair'....

So our very own Tory politicians are so useless they'll take any excuse to "do nothing" eh?

You seem to be highly confused on this topic - I live in an area with less than 2% unemployment - when are all the legions of Liverpudlians going to come marching up the road looking for jobs?




Really? What 'better leverage' will voters have?



Wages will not rise - immigration has increased wages on average for most people - and wages at the bottom have risen faster than inflation since the minimum wage was introduced.



There's zero chance of bringing immigration down to Cameron's discredited target of tens of thousands a year. Not a hope in hell.

The country needs significant ongoing immigration and even the leading Tories like Davis and Rudd have now admitted it.

Even Theresa May admitted today that free movement is likely to continue for some time....

I'm confused. If you have less than 2% unemployment, why do you need immigrant workers. What are you going to give them to do?

melanzana

What, no tariffs, free trade within EU, overseas workers welcome....

Would someone tell me what the point of Brexit is, if the status quo is going to have to be more or less maintained. Well for food security issues anyway, and probably everything else.

idkwhattosay

I'll tell you. Brexit is about re-building the British Empire.

British royal family and the politician elite have enough of being an equal, they wan't to lead. That's what this is all about. 40 or so years in the EU hasn't brought as much power to the UK as originally thought and having power is tough to forget. The leader role has been 'stolen' by Germany and now it's time for UK to move on and once again be its own master. There will be free-trade deals with the Commonwealth I can bet you and not only that but with the former colonies as well. UK wants to influence the world again and dominate it, just like Germany dominates Europe.

It's got nothing to do with immigration, if anything there will be even more immigrants in the UK, not less. Anyone who isn't mentally challenged knew that before the referendum even took place. That was just a show for less educated and it worked, but now even those people will have to learn that the reality is much different from an illusion. It's going to be bad for the next 10-15 years but after that UK will be back on track and ready to profit from its decision. That's my estimate. The sad part for a lot of people though is that they won't be part of anything European anymore. But anyway, London is a place to make money, not to live a family life isn't it?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

cogito wrote: »

I'm confused.

We know.

If you have less than 2% unemployment, why do you need immigrant workers. What are you going to give them to do?

That statement shows a fundamental misunderstanding of economics and the labour market.

How are businesses supposed to grow and expand without access to workers?

How are businesses supposed to replace and ageing and retiring staff without access to quality workers? (and when unemployment is 2% it's a safe bet those 2% are mostly unemployable)

Business needs a ready pool of labour to draw from - the UK is already mostly at full employment (economically speaking) as unemployment at 4.7% and wages over the last few years rising faster than inflation demonstrates.

A labour market much tighter than that is incredibly bad for the economy - for productivity - for business growth - and therefore for society.

melanzana

idkwhattosay wrote: »

I'll tell you. Brexit is about re-building the British Empire.

British royal family and the politician elite have enough of being an equal, they wan't to lead. That's what this is all about. 40 or so years in the EU hasn't brought as much power to the UK as originally thought and having power is tough to forget. The leader role has been 'stolen' by Germany and now it's time for UK to move on and once again be its own master. There will be free-trade deals with the Commonwealth I can bet you and not only that but with the former colonies as well. UK wants to influence the world again and dominate it, just like Germany dominates Europe.

It's got nothing to do with immigration, if anything there will be even more immigrants in the UK, not less. Anyone who isn't mentally challenged knew that before the referendum even took place. That was just a show for less educated and it worked, but now even those people will have to learn that the reality is much different from an illusion. It's going to be bad for the next 10-15 years but after that UK will be back on track and ready to profit from its decision. That's my estimate. The sad part for a lot of people though is that they won't be part of anything European anymore. But anyway, London is a place to make money, not to live a family life isn't it?

Bravo! So right, in a very entertaining and informative (ironic and subtle....) way!

So at the end of the day it's a my "insert word" is bigger than yours" na na na na na.

Such infantile reasons for keeping everything the way it always was, just without an EU symbol on the reg plate and the passport.

Anyway, how many millions will be spent redesigning the passport, driving licenses, legislation, trade deals again?

All to end up where we were in the first place.

vivatifosi

melanzana wrote: »

What, no tariffs, free trade within EU, overseas workers welcome....

Would someone tell me what the point of Brexit is, if the status quo is going to have to be more or less maintained. Well for food security issues anyway, and probably everything else.

Not sure whether you were asking this question of me or not, but I was writing about food security, hence answering.

I'm probably the wrong person to ask, as I voted remain. However it is clear that whatever the outcome is, it is likely to be a compromise between two sides. Issues like food security should be easy to solve: we buy EU foods and there is no reason not to in the future, and there would be foot shooting involved if any tariffs were involved.

There are of course thornier issues, such as banking, which I expect to be much more fought over.

The outcome, whatever it is, is unlikely to please everyone who voted leave; not least because people voted leave for a whole host of different reasons. Much the same as the people who voted remain were not homogeneous.

Filo25

Interesting piece in the FT, which doesn't share the optimism of some in here on the likelihood of achieving an ambitious trade deal with India.

https://www.ft.com/content/5fef7796-1914-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87
"india dents uk trade hopes with lapsed deal"

I thought it was an interesting read anyway

BobQ

Filo25 wrote: »

Interesting piece in the FT, which doesn't share the optimism of some in here on the likelihood of achieving an ambitious trade deal with India.

https://www.ft.com/content/5fef7796-1914-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87
"india dents uk trade hopes with lapsed deal"

I thought it was an interesting read anyway

Yes very interesting. I think the reliance on the Commonwealth has been very overstated by the Leave side and we will have to make the best of it. A few nations (Australia, New Zealand, US and Canada) for example may give a free trade a fair hearing in deference to our shared culture. But much of the Commonwealth does not look favourably on the UK. After all history shows how we treated them and now may be seen as payback time. Why should India whose people were subjugated and murdered by the likes of General Dyer think kindly of us unless they have a lot to gain from it? It may be the past but the British establishment still rule the nation today.

davomcdave

vivatifosi wrote: »

We get 54% of our food from the UK, 27% from the EU, 4% from each of Africa, Asia, N america and s america. 2% from rest of Europe and 1% from Australasia.

An easy win in terms of food security would be to support UK farms on CAP terms at least in the years post Brexit. It also makes great sense, both for us and the EU, to continue to buy food from the Eu. It makes no sense for either side to introduce tariffs when from the UK side it would impact food security and from the EU side cause an even greater drain on CAP.

I can't see why we wouldn't recruit overseas workers to do picking.

But if you do that you miss out on a point of Brexit which is to stop, or vastly reduce, low and unskilled migrant labour.

AIUI, one big benefit of Brexit is wages for poor people will be bid up as they will no longer be competing against immigrants for jobs. Obviously that will push up costs for farmers and send the least efficient ones bankrupt unless we introduce a system of additional tariffs. TBH I can't imagine that the French will be particularly keen to have tariff free trade in food with the UK after Brexit. They are the world's second biggest food producer (the US is the biggest) and export half of their production outside the EU from behind their tariff wall. I expect they will be very keen for the British to sit outside it.

As we've already got the Spanish voting against any Brexit agreement because of Gibraltar we can't afford to upset many more big countries. The majority required by QMV includes a majority of population as well as of countries. It's one of the reasons I think we'll end up with track wreck Brexit. The Spanish won't vote for anything at all because of Gibraltar, the Polish (and others) won't agree to anything without FOM and the French are going to be nearly impossible to negotiate with on agriculture. I just can't see any sort of agreement that is going to be acceptable to the Brits going through and that's before we discuss the 'divorce agreement'.

The German exporting manufacturers may be a powerful voice in Europe but they are nothing like the only one. We've already seen plenty of vested interests in the UK piping up with what Brexit needs to look like. The same thing will be going on in Europe, every single industry body in every single country will be in the ear of the relevant minister, trying to get a Brexit that they feel benefits them. In many cases that will look protectionist.