If we vote for Brexit what happens

vivatifosi

I am not as negative as you on Brexit davo, but I agree that Brexit is not going to be straightforward. Let me be clear on this. I voted remain and were I to go back in time and vote again, I'd still vote remain.

Nevertheless, we are where we are and Brexit is happening. So I'm trying to find the middle ground. In spite of all the concerns, I don't believe that we will fall out of the EU without a deal. It just isn't in anybody's interests. However I do believe that what we end up with won't meet everyone's aspirations re Brexit. It can't possibly, as they are too disparate... from sovereignty to immigration.

My personal belief remains that farming is one of the easier areas to reach a deal. We don't even produce enough food to feed ourselves and we need their food just as much as it will leave even bigger milk lakes, tomato mountains or whatever if we don't buy from them.

Food should be easy imo. Similarly I hope Ireland will be, as the will is there on both sides and returning to the troubles is in nobody's interest. I still think that there will be real sticking points though, and that among these will be banking and possibly Gibraltar. Those are the points that could hurt a lot more. I genuinely don't believe food will be a flashpoint. I also hope that the UK will have a transitional arrangement (say EEA Swiss style) to enable time to iron these things out, rather than going over the edge.

Tromking

vivatifosi wrote: »

However I do believe that what we end up with won't meet everyone's aspirations re Brexit. It can't possibly, as they are too disparate... from sovereignty to immigration.

I'm of the opinion that just as our ongoing EU membership has dominated our political discourse for the last 40 odd years, our new non-membership will do the same for opposite reasons.
Its the lot of the UK to be terminally troubled by its relationship with the rest of Europe it seems.
I don't like the fella, but I think Verhofstadt was spot on today when he talked of a young British politician sometime in the future making the case for and probably succeeding in taking the UK back into the EU.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Tromking wrote: »

I'm of the opinion that just as our ongoing EU membership has dominated our political discourse for the last 40 odd years, our new non-membership will do the same for opposite reasons.

Agreed.

I genuinely don't think there will be any coming together of society - this issue will continue to bitterly divide the UK for decades to come.

I think Verhofstadt was spot on today when he talked of a young British politician sometime in the future making the case for and probably succeeding in taking the UK back into the EU.

Highly likely.

The frustrating thing is that it probably won't be on as good a terms as the ones we're pointlessly giving up now.

And Britain will suffer a "lost decade" or two in the meantime of economic prosperity being lower than it otherwise would have been.

What a waste...

CKhalvashi

Tromking wrote: »

I'm of the opinion that just as our ongoing EU membership has dominated our political discourse for the last 40 odd years, our new non-membership will do the same for opposite reasons.
Its the lot of the UK to be terminally troubled by its relationship with the rest of Europe it seems.
I don't like the fella, but I think Verhofstadt was spot on today when he talked of a young British politician sometime in the future making the case for and probably succeeding in taking the UK back into the EU.

Completely agree with this, however Leave hasn't won yet.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The frustrating thing is that it probably won't be on as good a terms as the ones we're pointlessly giving up now.

And Britain will suffer a "lost decade" or two in the meantime of economic prosperity being lower than it otherwise would have been.

What a waste...

Completely agree with this too.

If the Cons lose in 2020, there may be a case where the UK doesn't leave permanently. This may be especially likely if the talks of a new centre-right party materialise and enough Tories join it. We'll still be in transition then, and probably be negotiating a trade deal, so it would be interesting to see what would happen if a new party said 'Oh, by the way, we're remaining after all'

There may also be a case where whoever wins in 2025 decides to take the UK back in, where not enough regulation will have changed to make re-joining an immediate issue.

Either way, I can easily see 10 years being shaved off the age of our Parliament come the next election if the Tories plan goes wrong.

My constituency has a large number of Conservative Remainers on one side, and a large number of disillusioned Labour Leave voters on the other, so this could be interesting.

davomcdave

vivatifosi wrote: »

I am not as negative as you on Brexit davo, but I agree that Brexit is not going to be straightforward. Let me be clear on this. I voted remain and were I to go back in time and vote again, I'd still vote remain.

It's not necessarily that I'm as negative as I'm painting things, I'm just finding it increasingly frustrating the lalalala approach being taken to things.

If you push up wages you push up costs and in competitive, low margin markets that is a very big problem. It's okay to say, "People will get to earn a living wage" but the second and third order effects are just as real as the first order ones.

The success of this website shows the number of people out there that are very price sensitive. How many people are actually going to be prepared to pay an extra 10p or 20p a kilo for carrots that were picked from a farm-in-a-hole by Peter rather than from a regular farm-not-in-a-hole by Piotr? Not many is my guess and that means our British carrot farmer going bust and Peter losing his now high paying carrot picking job.

Unfortunately for Peter but fortunately for Piotr, in a globalised world, low productivity workers in low margin industries simply can't gain high wages. Given that the cost of transport is low and tariffs are low or non-existent Peter is going to have to get some skills if he wants to improve his lot. If we reverse globalisation then that's great but it's going to mean a lot of upheaval, possibly more equality and probably three grand for an iPhone.

The fact is that Peter's standard of living has probably improved quite a bit through globalisation as his non-housing essential costs have fallen substantially and the price of fripperies has fallen a fair bit too, hence the ubiquitous unemployed family of chavs with a gazillion inch TV in the front room. For some reason he doesn't feel rich but TBH I put that down to Instagram cultcha. We constantly have our noses rubbed in it as to how the extremely rich live and it's hard for many to accept that they can't have that lifestyle too despite working extremely hard in some cases.

davomcdave

Tromking wrote: »

I'm of the opinion that just as our ongoing EU membership has dominated our political discourse for the last 40 odd years, our new non-membership will do the same for opposite reasons.

The membership of the EU hasn't dominated the political discourse for the last 40 odd years though:

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21720093-until-referendum-britons-were-unbothered-european-matters-brexit-solution-search

mrginge

davomcdave wrote: »

If you push up wages you push up costs and in competitive, low margin markets that is a very big problem. It's okay to say, "People will get to earn a living wage" but the second and third order effects are just as real as the first order ones.

Of course one can argue that an increase in cost of any resource incentivises business to drive productivity and efficiency gains.

Pushing up wages is not necessarily bad if your starting position is that they are currently too low.
But we should ask this as a societal question rather than from a narrow business viewpoint.

There are as always many competing factors in play here. Over-reliance on one type of resource is often a short term cash cow but rarely a long term strategy for growth. Some correction is inevitable.

davomcdave

mrginge wrote: »

Of course one can argue that an increase in cost of any resource incentivises business to drive productivity and efficiency gains.

Pushing up wages is not necessarily bad if your starting position is that they are currently too low.
But we should ask this as a societal question rather than from a narrow business viewpoint.

There are as always many competing factors in play here. Over-reliance on one type of resource is often a short term cash cow but rarely a long term strategy for growth. Some correction is inevitable.

I agree, increased wages pushes businesses to spend money on capital spending (capex) rather than wages.

For a business like strawberry farming picking capex can't replace labour as machines can't currently pick strawberries. As a result we see creative destruction happen instead: the strawberry farm sees increased costs which it can't pass on to the supermarkets. The strawberry farm goes bust and is replaced with a business or something else that can use the land more profitably under the new, changed circumstances. The strawberry farmers and their employees lose their jobs and perhaps can get new jobs with the new owners or perhaps not.

Ultimately wages represent productivity and British productivity is low. I heard a comparison with France today which said that the average worker in France can spend Friday in bed and still produce more in a week than a British worker.

Do you have something in mind when you say Britain is over-reliant on a single industry?

Conrad

As Brexit beds in and we thrive in our new found confidence and independence, the vast bulk of people will become comfortable with the new status quo, there will be no going back.

People are so hung up on the minor benefits of the SM. People trade, companies trade, a trade agreement is just a minor square of icing, and as Moody's have concluded, the City will thrive without Passporting, trade deal or no trade deal.

Those that seem to think the answer to everything is an endless tide of immigration suffer a lack of imagination and latteral thinking.

Herzlos

I really hope so. But none of the signs are there.