If we vote for Brexit what happens

Arklight

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Much of your post is at least partially correct.
Here however is a snapshot of trade between India and the UK from The Economist:

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21586829-two-countries-have-close-financial-ties-trade-between-them-feeble-odd-couple

Maybe you too need to stop paying quite so much attention to what is increasingly frequently becoming media propaganda?

I repeat: I'm not expecting a bed of roses and pots of gold.
Neither though do I see the opposite end of the spectrum.
As I say above: "..there is real and large potential.

Great we'll all pay our mortgages with potential at the end of the month.

Fella

Arklight wrote: »

Great we'll all pay our mortgages with potential at the end of the month.

That's all you ever had. Do you think anything whatsoever was guaranteed if we'd stayed in the EU?

Effectively we've swapped an uncertain future that we had little control over for a slightly more uncertain future that we have far more control over.

Arklight

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm only going by the figures available. We know that about half of China is urban, and 76% of them are middle class. We don't know how many of the rural Chinese are middle class, but you're assuming it's the same as the urban.

81% increase of 10 is only 8. I don't know how prolific UK tours are to the Chinese. It's growing yes, but is it meaningful?

Do you have any figures on how many of the rural Chinese are middle class? I'm willing to bet it's a much lower percentage than the urban Chinese.

This article https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-09/here-s-what-china-s-middle-class-really-earn-and-spend

Says that the middle class is about 19% of the population, earning an average of about $11k a year. Only 2% earn enough to pay income tax. Only 4% of Chinese people have a passport. Those 4% spend a lot of money though.

Even assuming no costs for living, $11k a year doesn't let you buy much from the west.

We can certainly make money from China (lots of companies do), but it's a very, very, different market to the EU, and very hard work even for those with lots of experience in the market. Same for India. It's not going to be very easy to replace £x of EU money with £x of Chinese money, despite the population and demographic differences.

Writing off the importance of EU trade because we've got China and India is foolish; EU trade is likely always going to be more important and profitable, unless there's a significant cultural shift in India/China, and I don't see anything being the driver for that. We stand a much better chance with the US.

The Brexit people making all these assumptions about India and China have for the most part, never been there.

5 minutes spent in rural China is enough to see that no one has any money. They aren't mobile and they aren't allowed to travel freely. Something like 4% of Chinese have a passport. You need government permission to even apply for one, it costs hundreds of dollars and expires in a few years.

China is also suffering from a massive demographic time bomb of its own from the one child policy.

As far as geopolitics goes, their big trading partner is America, and they are currently risking a trade war with them over their refusal to open their markets to American companies, or allow the Yuan tp appreciate to the point where Chinese could import American goods.

They really don't give a stuff about opening themselves up to Brexitland and the assumption they do is just yet another in a series of very worrying red flags about the competence of the Leave side to steward us actually leaving.

This is a good report on actual spending power in China:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-09/here-s-what-china-s-middle-class-really-earn-and-spend

This gives an accurate view of how India views the UK:

http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/iain-dale/empire-20-will-go-down-like-a-lead-balloon-india/

Arklight

Fella wrote: »

That's all you ever had. Do you think anything whatsoever was guaranteed if we'd stayed in the EU?

Effectively we've swapped an uncertain future we had little control over for a slightly more uncertain future we have far more control over.

No, we really haven't.

Herzlos

Fella wrote: »

I'm sure that's true but I don't think there would have been legal challenges & protest marches etc.

I'm pretty sure Farage promised protests and a push for another referendum. Things really wouldn't have been any less objectional from that point of view if it was a narrow remain.

If it was clear margin in either direction (say, 60/40) then it'd be completely different.

Fella

Arklight wrote: »

No, we really haven't.

Which part are you disagreeing with?

That the future was uncertain before? Simple fact.

That it's more uncertain now? Simple fact.

That we have more control over our own future now? Simple fact.

So yes, we really have.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Arklight wrote: »

Great we'll all pay our mortgages with potential at the end of the month.

Ooh I tell you what, let's instead do what some on here would dearly love:
Let's all stay inside our comfortable little hidey-hole and never again dare to take a peek outside at the real world.
Safe in ignorance, eh?

Herzlos

I wouldn't say being wary about a huge unknown and wanting to remain with a perfectly functional status quo was ignorance.

Assuming it'll just work because of good old British pluck and some population numbers, on the other hand, could be ignorance.

I mean, I'd love the UK to do even better outside of the EU, but all of my experience leads me to believe that is unlikely to actually be the case.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Arklight wrote: »

The Brexit people making all these assumptions about India and China have for the most part, never been there.

5 minutes spent in rural China is enough to see that no one has any money. They aren't mobile and they aren't allowed to travel freely. Something like 4% of Chinese have a passport. You need government permission to even apply for one, it costs hundreds of dollars and expires in a few years.

China is also suffering from a massive demographic time bomb of its own from the one child policy.

As far as geopolitics goes, their big trading partner is America, and they are currently risking a trade war with them over their refusal to open their markets to American companies, or allow the Yuan tp appreciate to the point where Chinese could import American goods.

They really don't give a stuff about opening themselves up to Brexitland and the assumption they do is just yet another in a series of very worrying red flags about the competence of the Leave side to steward us actually leaving.

This is a good report on actual spending power in China:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-09/here-s-what-china-s-middle-class-really-earn-and-spend

This gives an accurate view of how India views the UK:

http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/iain-dale/empire-20-will-go-down-like-a-lead-balloon-india/

Back in the real world rather than that of premonitions of doom and gloom, regarding increases happening now - and reported by Asia Times:

Chinese tourist spend in London up by over 300%

http://www.atimes.com/article/exclusive-chinese-tourist-spend-london-300/

From China:

2015 saw China move into the UK’s top 10 most valuable inbound tourism markets, propelled by an increase of visits vs. 2014 of +47% and an increase of spend of +18%. This huge increase reflects an underlying growth trend over the last decade: the number of Chinese tourists coming to the UK has more than doubled since 2006 while total spend has multiplied by more than 5 times.
Long known to be the highest-spending global travellers, Chinese tourists’ total spend in the UK last year was £586m. This is +18% y-on-y and the Chinese account for nearly ¼ of all tourist spend in the UK. VisitBritain’s stats show that every 22 additional Chinese visitors to the UK support an additional job in tourism.

http://www.chinatraveloutbound.com/china-becomes-one-of-the-uks-top-10-most-valuable-inbound-tourism-markets/

From Chinese in the UK:

Chinese tourists doubled spending while visiting Britain in the months after the UK's vote to leave the European Union

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017-03/24/content_28670691.htm

Property?

Peter MacColl, head of global capital markets at the property advisers Knight Frank, describes a “surge of Chinese money” into UK property, including cash from state-owned enterprises, corporations and ultra-wealthy individuals.

https://www.ft.com/content/40a42390-c857-11e6-9043-7e34c07b46ef

Investment?

China’s investment in business and infrastructure in the UK has increased by almost 500 per cent in just the past six years, analysis has revealed.
Chinese companies have splurged £3.8bn on 20 mergers and acquisitions so far this year compared with just nine deals worth £666m in 2010 – a rise of more than 470 per cent.

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/chinese-investment-uk-500-per-cent-six-years/


You want more?
Should I move on to India?

Honestly I CBA - if you're determined in your pessimism there isn't much I or anyone else can do for you.
But the prospects are - as demonstrated above - far, far better than your dour POV suggests.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

I wouldn't say being wary about a huge unknown and wanting to remain with a perfectly functional status quo was ignorance.
...

This was and still is a totally disingenuous assessment of the EU.

It's not a status quo at all.

You may have missed them lurching from one crisis to another over the Euro.

They have a porous border to the South East, and an increasingly cantankerous neighbour in Turkey.

They have for the first time in decades a less than sympathetic USA president to deal with.

They have a Russian neighbour willing to stoke the fires along the Eastern border.

How is this a status quo?

None of these is without a solution, but it will involve some pretty serious changes for the EU.