If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Consider this though: why do YOU think so many Chinese love to study here and/or to visit and shop here in the UK?

We provide good educations and business links, as well as high quality products. I'm not disputing that.

Of course, we're talking about ~95k students out of a population of 1.5bn.

Don't try to equate Chinese incomes to other parts of the world BTW - the disposable income increasing numbers of Chinese have is the driving factor.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/record-number-of-chinese-tourists-flocking-to-london-after-brexit-sparks-plunge-in-the-pound-a3438751.html

It's saying 81% growth, but of how many? How many of the 1.5bn Chinese are visiting the UK?

Disposable income confuses things a bit because of costs of living, but when we're talking about very low (by EU standards) of household income, disposable income still doesn't provide much Western buying power.

Also 76% of over 1.4 billion by 2020 = around 1.1 billion potential consumers - double the 550 million you suggest.

76% of half of the population, brings it back down to the 550mn. Half of China is still rural.

mayonnaise

Fella wrote: »

This line has been used a fair bit but it doesn't hold water. Lots of results are close, that doesn't make them invalid. The Tory election victory was narrow, that doesn't make it any less legitimate.

Would you honestly have refused to accept an equally narrow victory for Remain?

If Remain would have won narrowly, I would have expected the eurosceptics to continue to make the case for a break with Europe.
As Nigel famously said : 'a 52-48 win for remain would be unfinished business'.

Arklight

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I read your post and much of it I will go along with to variable degrees.

Consider this though: why do YOU think so many Chinese love to study here and/or to visit and shop here in the UK?
Don't try to equate Chinese incomes to other parts of the world BTW - the disposable income increasing numbers of Chinese have is the driving factor.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/record-number-of-chinese-tourists-flocking-to-london-after-brexit-sparks-plunge-in-the-pound-a3438751.html

This desire for UK products is in large part at least to do with our perceived qualities and our history.
Something that much of the rest of the world does not have.

Also 76% of over 1.4 billion by 2020 = around 1.1 billion potential consumers - double the 550 million you suggest.
And since numbers are already increasing significantly as per my earlier link, I think it only fair to say that this suggested increase may well continue.

I quite agree that trade to China isn't easy ......... also that there may well not be much of a market for the "mundane" BUT there is real and large potential.
We as a nation have much that the Chinese admire and the possibilities for much-increased trade are real.

We as a nation might want to look into what the Chinese and members of the Commonwealth actually think about us. A level of self awareness that is absent from the Empire 2.0 narrative espoused by Brexiters.

On an individual level, the Chinese and Indians can quite like the British . On a national level they do not.

Eurofighter's bid in India was a case in point. Everyone knew this was dead in the water from the moment it started. Not because there was anything wrong with the product, or the price, or that the Indian air force couldn't afford it.

It's because the Indians would rather have a fleet of egg boxes powered by rubber bands than pass up the opportunity to publicly snub British courting.

The glee with which they turned in favour of Rafale at the last minute and their dismissal of British tech was repeated all over their media.

They did eventually mention that Eurofighter was a consortium, but only insofar as to point out that the Brits don't even seem to be capable of building an entire plane themselves any more. .

StevieJ

The current account deficit is down to 12.1 billion (16.3 expected) from 25.7, that is some good news.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

We provide good educations and business links, as well as high quality products. I'm not disputing that.
Good so far.
Of course, we're talking about ~95k students out of a population of 1.5bn.
Is this number increasing?
What about the tourist consumers?

It's saying 81% growth, but of how many? How many of the 1.5bn Chinese are visiting the UK?
Potentially how many more should be your question - why isn't it?

Disposable income confuses things a bit because of costs of living, but when we're talking about very low (by EU standards) of household income, disposable income still doesn't provide much Western buying power.
And yet it is increasing here in the UK - you acknowledge that yourself above "81% growth".

76% of half of the population, brings it back down to the 550mn. Half of China is still rural.
You're attempting to say that because half the population is rural, they nether spend their money nor travel?
What strange perceptions you have.
I must mention this to the 9 million plus in the UK that are rural.
The article linked does not suggest your srgument either and remember - these people will STILL classified as "middle class" and so still have disposable income.
So we're back to 1.1 billion again.

Responses highlighted in red although by now it really does look very much like you just want to argue for the sake of it, and ignore the figures or interpret them in a skewed manner (as in suggesting that rural people, despite being middle classed will not have money to spend).

As I have repeatedly said, I'm not expecting a bed of roses and pots of gold.
Neither though do I see the opposite end of the spectrum.
As I say above: "..there is real and large potential.
We as a nation have much that the Chinese admire and the possibilities for much-increased trade are real. "

Herzlos

I'm only going by the figures available. We know that about half of China is urban, and 76% of them are middle class. We don't know how many of the rural Chinese are middle class, but you're assuming it's the same as the urban.

81% increase of 10 is only 8. I don't know how prolific UK tours are to the Chinese. It's growing yes, but is it meaningful?

Do you have any figures on how many of the rural Chinese are middle class? I'm willing to bet it's a much lower percentage than the urban Chinese.

This article https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-09/here-s-what-china-s-middle-class-really-earn-and-spend

Says that the middle class is about 19% of the population, earning an average of about $11k a year. Only 2% earn enough to pay income tax. Only 4% of Chinese people have a passport. Those 4% spend a lot of money though.

Even assuming no costs for living, $11k a year doesn't let you buy much from the west.

We can certainly make money from China (lots of companies do), but it's a very, very, different market to the EU, and very hard work even for those with lots of experience in the market. Same for India. It's not going to be very easy to replace £x of EU money with £x of Chinese money, despite the population and demographic differences.

Writing off the importance of EU trade because we've got China and India is foolish; EU trade is likely always going to be more important and profitable, unless there's a significant cultural shift in India/China, and I don't see anything being the driver for that. We stand a much better chance with the US.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Arklight wrote: »

On an individual level, the Chinese and Indians can quite like the British . On a national level they do not.

Much of your post is at least partially correct.
Here however is a snapshot of trade between India and the UK from The Economist:

Far from being a failure, Britain’s economic relationship with India is a mirror image of the Chinese one. Planeloads of bankers and Bollywood stars jet between London and Mumbai on 84 flights a week. Britain’s banks lend more to India than any other country’s, accounting for 28% of the world’s exposure to India, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
Britain is India’s biggest counterparty for foreign direct investment (FDI)—something official figures do not show. The figures omit deals routed via tax havens and downplay the worth of long-standing investments. Adjusted for these factors, Britain is the favourite destination for FDI by Indian firms with about $30 billion invested, or about a quarter of India’s outbound FDI stock. Tata Group’s takeovers of Corus and Jaguar Land Rover explain a chunk of this. Both are crucial for British jobs and research and development. Cyrus Mistry, Tata’s boss, is the most important industrialist in both countries.
In the other direction, British firms have at stake perhaps $85 billion in India, more than any other country and about 30% of all FDI into India. Some are golden-oldie investors such as Unilever; two big banks, HSBC and Standard Chartered; and British American Tobacco, which owns a third of ITC, a smokes-to-biscuits conglomerate based in Kolkata. Newcomers include Vodafone, BP and Diageo, which have used big acquisitions to boost their exposure to India, with mixed results.

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21586829-two-countries-have-close-financial-ties-trade-between-them-feeble-odd-couple

Maybe you too need to stop paying quite so much attention to what is increasingly frequently becoming media propaganda?

I repeat: I'm not expecting a bed of roses and pots of gold.
Neither though do I see the opposite end of the spectrum.
As I say above: "..there is real and large potential.

Arklight

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Responses highlighted in red although by now it really does look very much like you just want to argue for the sake of it, and ignore the figures or interpret them in a skewed manner (as in suggesting that rural people, despite being middle classed will not have money to spend).

As I have repeatedly said, I'm not expecting a bed of roses and pots of gold.
Neither though do I see the opposite end of the spectrum.
As I say above: "..there is real and large potential.
We as a nation have much that the Chinese admire and the possibilities for much-increased trade are real. "

You are very misinformed about China,

The average rural wage in China is about $200 a month.

And no, Chninese rural workers don't travel. If you want to leave your province then you need permission to do so from the local government under the hukou system.

This determines where people are allowed to live and work.

China is a growing market but it isn't the golden goose that Brexiteers think it is, for the UK.

Fella

mayonnaise wrote: »

If Remain would have won narrowly, I would have expected the eurosceptics to continue to make the case for a break with Europe.
As Nigel famously said : 'a 52-48 win for remain would be unfinished business'.

I'm sure that's true but I don't think there would have been legal challenges & protest marches etc.

We should make the distinction between Remainers & so-called Remoaners. I don't believe people who use the latter term are referring to everybody who voted Remain, or who regrets that they lost. I've always presumed it to be aimed at those people (and their supporters) who have done everything in their power to thwart the result of the vote. I.e. & in no particular order, Gina Miller, the Rod Stewart lookalike plumber, Blair, Mendelson, Ken Clarke, Heseltine, Clegg, Farron (& all the libdems), Salmond & Sturgeon (& all the SNPs) etc etc....

davomcdave

StevieJ wrote: »

The current account deficit is down to 12.1 billion (16.3 expected) from 25.7, that is some good news.

Why is it good news do you think? I think it represents a fall in living standards.