If we vote for Brexit what happens

davomcdave

Herzlos wrote: »

China is also a very hard market to sell into, partially due to protectionism and partially due to it's take on things like copyright. Lots of companies have been stung selling stuff into China, finding that if it's successful a clone pops up in quick order and completely under cuts them.

There was a great piece in the FT a year or so ago about this. It talked about a company that would sell you a knock-off Apple Store. It would take a building and make it look like an iStore.

There was another firm that specialised in making knock off bank branches. People would take their shop takings in or whatever for a few weeks and then all of a sudden the branch would disappear.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

A major influencing factor has been a reluctance to challenge that stance.
Chinese steel-dumping being one prime example.

Here is a list of how many copyright infringements from China the EU has dealt with:

https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/customs-controls/counterfeit-piracy-other-ipr-violations/ipr-infringements-facts-figures_en

Now see if you can find out how much the EU fined China as a result of these?
Compared to say Apple, or Volkswagen or ............... well, you get the idea.

That's stuff coming into the EU from China? I'm talking about the other direction. You can't rely on a lot of tech based trade to China, because if it's successful (and they let you sell there in the first place), there's a high risk that some Chinese company will start selling knock-offs and your sales fall through the floor. You can get away with it for high value luxury stuff (Rolls Royce, for instance) where the target customers can afford to read deal. mid/low end stuff is a different matter though; why would the lower/middle class Chinese people pay 4x as much for your product over an identical Chinese one?

We can still make lots of money from China, via things like consultancy, science and financial services, but it's not going to be a drop-in replacement for what we lose from Europe.

spikyone

davomcdave wrote: »

Maybe Portugal seeing as they have rather more respect for my intellectual property rights, are a lot richer than the Chinese and are a lot easier to send stuff to as they are much closer.

Chinese GDP per capita is about 1/3rd of the EU's. The World Bank has Chinese GDP per capita growth at a rate of 6.4% and the European Union's as being 2%. If those two figures persist, and there is plenty of evidence and research to suggest that China's GDP and growth figures are wildly exaggerated and that their GDP will slow the larger it gets, it will take 28 years for China to overtake the EU

However the fact is that a country with 1.3 billion inhabitants and a rapidly aging population, thanks to Mao's single child policy, will not be growing per capita output at 6.4% in 30 years time assuming it has managed to maintain that growth in much of the meantime.

So you'd rather be selling to a market that's 159th in terms of GDP growth with a population about 1/6th the size of the UK, than one that is 14th with a population of 1.4bn? What about India, 8th in GDP growth, with a population almost as large as China's?

Data from Wikipedia and open to error of course.

Take a look at where all the EU countries are on that list; the wealthy ones start from about 160 or so. You'd have to be pretty naive to think our best future prospects are in trading with the EU. Over the long term we will get better returns by looking outside the EU for our trading partners.

Herzlos

davomcdave wrote: »

There was a great piece in the FT a year or so ago about this. It talked about a company that would sell you a knock-off Apple Store. It would take a building and make it look like an iStore.

There was another firm that specialised in making knock off bank branches. People would take their shop takings in or whatever for a few weeks and then all of a sudden the branch would disappear.

There's lots of stories of companies getting burnt by China. One Japanese train company got a contract to build a train fleet, as long as they built them in China. Went along with it, and after the first order (can't remember how many trains it was, 2 or 3 I think) the Chinese cancelled the rest and used their own local manufacturer to build the rest of the fleet, which were identical apart from the logo.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Re: to your post above, yes there ARE lots of stories of companies getting "burnt" by China.
Why though are you not asking why China is allowed to continue with it's policy of underhanded copyright infringements?

I already gave you examples from the EU.
Why has the EU not fined China when it seems so very keen on fining just about anybody else for comparatively minor infringements?

You post about Japan & trains.
Regarding those trains:

KHI says it deeply regrets its now-dissolved partnership. It planned to sue its previously junior partner for patent infringement, but it backed down recently.

http://fortune.com/2013/04/15/did-china-steal-japans-high-speed-train/
Why did it back down?

Attitudes need to change all round and particularly in China, not just with its attitude towards copyright.
The public (here, in the EU and globally) should be aware that when they purchase anything made in China they are contributing towards this attitude from the Chinese.
Globally, companies should actively pursue Chinese infringements with the full support of international law.

But that won't happen in the foreseeable future without the rest of the world agreeing.
Which looks unlikely.
Meantime the bleating and continued attempts to wring every last sheckle of profitability by using comparatively cheap Chinese labour in vain hopes will continue.

But with a population of approaching 1.5 billion compared to the EU's 450 million or so, and given the increasing disposable incomes and yet still relatively low wages there it's easy to see why anyone would want to sell or manufacture in China rather than in the EU.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

According to this, on Wednesday next week Donald Trump & co. will decide upon the imposition of tariffs on around 90 European products as retaliation for the EU's 20-year and continuing refusal to accept imports of USA beef.

Powerful U.S. farming groups are pushing the Trump administration to hit the EU hard. The EU has a €136 billion surplus with the U.S., making it particularly vulnerable to trade sanctions.

http://www.politico.eu/article/trumps-next-trade-target-europes-scooters-and-cheese/

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Also from Politico today, comments from some EU leaders about what they would change about the union.
Guy Verhofstadt for example saying:

We have defined how much water a toilet can flush, but we haven’t managed to come up with real answers when it comes to foreign policy, security or immigration.

http://www.politico.eu/article/how-to-relaunch-the-european-union-future-brexit/

An interesting read, not necessarily anti-EU btw but more to show that the EU is not as united a front as Merkel & pals would have us believe.

Arklight

spikyone wrote: »

So you'd rather be selling to a market that's 159th in terms of GDP growth with a population about 1/6th the size of the UK, than one that is 14th with a population of 1.4bn? What about India, 8th in GDP growth, with a population almost as large as China's?

Data from Wikipedia and open to error of course.

Take a look at where all the EU countries are on that list; the wealthy ones start from about 160 or so. You'd have to be pretty naive to think our best future prospects are in trading with the EU. Over the long term we will get better returns by looking outside the EU for our trading partners.

This is making the, somewhat optimistic, assumption that Britain outside the EU is going to be able to secure some stellar trade deal with India and China that it couldn't do inside the EU.

Neither India or China are open markets, and British industry has been comparatively unsuccessful at developing either.

India imposes taxes on import cars and other luxuries, at the rate of 125% - and there is precious little access for financial services.

Most of us would rather have a large developed market than a small growing one. If we had to choose between the two.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Another piece on the French election too.

One top diplomat likened the vote to Brexit and last year’s U.S. election. The voters who decided the outcome then, he said, were “those who don’t give a damn anymore about politics.”

http://www.politico.eu/article/french-election-vote-existential-threat-eu-brussels-worried-marine-le-pen/

Fella

Somewhat of an aside but there's a real epidemic lately of Remainers who begin almost any interview with the comment "I voted Remain but I ACCEPT the result". Almost as if this is some magnanimous gesture on their part. Accepting the result doesn't earn special credit! Only the lowest of the low DON'T accept it. It's just that there are a lot of them.