If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

StevieJ wrote: »

I am not suggesting anything, but now you mention it, maybe (shock horror) the electorate were lied to.


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Talking of lies, it is your side that deliberately set out to terrify Europeans already here knowing full well it is not the British way to throw law abiding citizens out.


Your side all morning long in the media today has been spreading myths, lies and fear, it just never stops.


One of the latest childish fear mongering examples is that Lloyds of London will open an office in the EU, which has sent the terrified Remoaners into yet more hysterics.


Financial institutions open up new offices the world over and we argued over and over again that one way around access to the EU is to open satellite / brass plate offices in Dublin etc.

No mention from hystericals like James O'Brien that Lloyds is set to benefit from new global opportunities emerging thanks to Brexit going ahead that will be easier to exploit and maximise once WE are in the driving seat making such deals without EU interference (yes Germany has done some business globally - not relevant and missing the point)

Arklight

Conrad wrote: »

You guys keep missing the point........


You keep banging on about widget safety standards, and yes our own standards will be the same or similar to the EU's, I'm not arguing about widget standards particularly.


I'm saying a plumbers merchant in Tooting ASIDE FROM PRODUCTS - will not be subject to rafts of EU regulation on everything from paternity to working day length, emissions to very over the top regulations around financial services.


Most UK firms do not trade in the EU and in future WE can tailor make policy and determine what is right for these firms.

For goodness sake. The UK already offers enhanced paternity and maternity leave over and above the EU regulations.

The 48 hour working week you are upset about is already subject to yet another UK opt out - the EU, ghastly draconian exploiters that they are, only insist that employers can't sack someone for not actually wanting to work the equivalent of a 7 day week.

Let's see what an actual plumbing company thinks about this:

EU regulations

The vast majority of the EU-made rules and regulations that affect the building industry, and related sectors, have been created for improving health and safety reasons. Designed to ensure boiler installations, wiring, plumbing, new roofs, windows and other essential building components meet minimum standards of safety and security, these regulations have helped to improve the quality of works carried out in private and commercial properties throughout the UK.

As well as improving the quality of the work done on site, EU regulations also help to keep professionals safe while they’re working. Ensuring that employers meet minimum standards of safety and that employees aren’t put in any dangerous situations, these workplace regulations are an important part of running a responsible business.

http://jobworthdoing.co.uk/brexit-mean-uk-regulations/

Gosh, I can't wait for a proper unaccredited gas engineer who's at the end of his British 19 hour shift to come and blow my house up because, taking back control.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

We have indeed triggered Article 50 but you have not answered the question:
Exactly what have we given away?
As of this date - and in all probability until two years have passed we have as yet given away exactly nothing.
You assume what has not yet occurred.
You also assume that there will still be an EU to have MEP's or indeed an EU left at all.

Do you honestly think our position within the EU will be maintained once we've left?

I'm pretty confident the EU will still exist with MEPs by the time we leave & and all trade deals are negotiated in 8-10 years. It may not look the same, but we'll have no opportunity to shape it by that point.

Even if it were to collapse and become something else, we'd likely still not be a part of it. If you're so convinced the EU is failing, why not hang about and be a key state in shaping the new thing?

spikyone

Arklight wrote: »

Or back in the real world. British widget manufacturers will conform to whatever the EU standard is, with no say at all about how that standard is set, because no-one wants a non compliant widget in their product.

Conrad wrote: »

You keep banging on about widget safety standards, and yes our own standards will be the same or similar to the EU's, I'm not arguing about widget standards particularly.

Agree that Arklight has missed the point, and what they are saying is also rather odd. British widget manufacturers will be selling to a great number of countries around the world where they have no say in how the local standard is set. Complying with EU standards when we're outside the EU is no different to our current compliance when selling goods to the US, China, Japan, Australia, or any other non-EU country. We're able to meet their standards perfectly well without any ability to define them ourselves.

To me this has been the most frustrating aspect of Remain supporters' arguments - they frequently seem incapable of imagining that there is a functioning world outside the EU's introspective, protectionist bubble and that in some cases there might even be a better way.

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I don't agree that it does mean poorer quality. It's less government oversight but business can still comply with EU regulation if required or even if desirable. There's nothing stopping them doing that.

Can you give me an example of a regulation small businesses can drop that doesn't affect quality? I'm sure there are some that don't apply or don't provide any benefit, but I can't think of any offhand.

Yes but I think we're conflating a love for the homogeneous rules of the single market with what's important. No one is saying that trading with countries nearby is not important, of course it is and we should all be looking for forge an amicable relationship now, it's mutually beneficial. But having to comply with the rules 100% of the time is different to having to comply with the rules less than 100% of the time.

Agreed, I'm just saying that writing the EU off as only being 7% of the globe is disingenuous, because it's always going to be a disproportionate asset to due to it's physical location, unless matter teleportation becomes a thing. It's our closest and most convenient market. It's also pretty wealthy.

I just don't see this great benefit you do from being able to drop EU regulations at will; some of us can maybe drop some, but it's not going to cut the operational costs of UK businesses by anything significant and likely to cause some problems to some others or at least need to be followed anyway.

Arklight

kabayiri wrote: »

I have a lot of Indian IT contractor friends. Some live here; some in India; some have moved to places like USA.

We had a discussion about more opportunities for Indian companies, after the Brexit vote. Indian entrepreneurs buying into UK business has been happening for some time now. I suspect it will increase now.

I think we will have to shift our focus to the East even more now.

They might want to open here, but India itself is a closed shop for financial services and imposes a 100% luxury tax on premium imports, which reduces what we can sell to them massively.

The trade deal that the Tories are desperate for (to justify their repeated visits to India) has come back from New Delhi with a pre-requisite for Indian immigration to the UK that Brexitland would bust a blood vessel over - so almost certainly won't happen.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

Can you give me an example of a regulation small businesses can drop that doesn't affect quality? I'm sure there are some that don't apply or don't provide any benefit, but I can't think of any offhand.

One that immediately springs to mind is bottled water producers would no longer have to check that their marketing material complied with the EU regulation that prevents them claiming water helps with dehydration. Clearly it's a job or part of a job for some people to check that they comply with something this daft.

Herzlos wrote: »

Agreed, I'm just saying that writing the EU off as only being 7% of the globe is disingenuous, because it's always going to be a disproportionate asset to due to it's physical location, unless matter teleportation becomes a thing. It's our closest and most convenient market. It's also pretty wealthy.

I just don't see this great benefit you do from being able to drop EU regulations at will; some of us can maybe drop some, but it's not going to cut the operational costs of UK businesses by anything significant and likely to cause some problems to some others or at least need to be followed anyway.

Say, 30 or 40 years ago transportation and refrigeration costs were so much higher than they are now. When so many things we purchase are 'Made in China' why is there this argument that it is cost inefficient in the modern age to transport products?

I'm not saying that the 7% isn't important, because they are (for the most part) high wage economies, and so lucrative markets just as we are to the EU. But there is scope to expand on that with the rest of the world. There are other high wage economies around the world with whom our trading relations are poor because of member states in the EU making demands that protect them at our expense.

As I said before, EEA/EFTA would have been my preferred option. It gives me everything I'm looking for from Brexit with minimal fuss. But for some in the UK immigration is a massive issue and the government is trying to address that, I need to respect their views and accept that.

Coming up with a free trade deal that allows us to be similar to the EEA/EFTA, not needing to comply with 100% of the rules 100% of the time, not being barred from going our own way in the trading world because Italy/Spain/Romania/Portugal/France/Sweden/etc... don't agree can only be a benefit to us.

davomcdave

cogito wrote: »

Nonsense. Since when did ISO have anything to do with the EU? It's an independent NGO based in Switzerland which sets standards designed to facilitate international trade. Why would the UK adopt a different set of standards? That makes no sense and sounds like more remainer scare mongering.

I didn't say the ISO had anything to do with the EU.

What I said was that if the UK elects to set its own standards separate from those of the EU, companies that follow that standard will not be able to trade with the EU. They will either have to make two versions of the product or chose which market to sell to.

If you speak to people that export anything with a reasonable profit margin then tariffs are neither here nor there really unless they're huge. An FX rate can move by 10% in a year so a 10% tariff is meaningless unless you're exporting food or something. What kills businesses is different standards in different countries, having to have different production lines to sell to the US, EU and Russia for example.

If the UK is going to continue to trade easily with the EU it must do one of three things:

1. Persuade the EU that any changes it makes to standards are really good and the EU should adopt them too.
2. Decide that changes to standards are so important that making trade with EU countries harder is less important (given the coming implosion and destruction of the EU I suppose that doesn't really matter much anyway)
3. Decide that trading with the world's largest economy (Eurozone) is actually quite important and end up just kinda following the EU's standards while having no input into their makeup (I think we could reasonably call this The Remoaners Premonition).

1 seems unlikely to happen often as it doesn't happen now and lots more countries are not-EU than EU. 2 might happen a lot or sometimes but each time it does it makes trade harder and thus Britain and the EU poorer. 3 seems the most likely outcome to me. I'd be happy to understand why others think 1 or 2 is more likely.

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

The point is that only those firms that wish to sell into the EU (a small minority) will have to abide by EU red tape.


But all those many often small firms that have nothing to do with the EU can be subject to British rules fit for the British market - as we slowly evolve our own rules. That's the point

So companies that want to sell to the British market and the EU market will be forced to have 2 production lines. Hmm, that doesn't sound very profitable. Still it'll mean more jobs. I wonder who will take them given that there aren't very many unemployed people around.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

Do you honestly think our position within the EU will be maintained once we've left?
I believe that the EU will by then be a vastly different entity, making your question irrelevant. Many with greater experience and knowledge than either you or I say the same, both from within and outside the EU itself. As have been posted in this very thread.

I'm pretty confident the EU will still exist with MEPs by the time we leave & and all trade deals are negotiated in 8-10 years. It may not look the same, but we'll have no opportunity to shape it by that point.
As above the general consensus and probability is that - if anything remains - it will be VERY different to that which exists today.
We are already helping to shape it be openly stating our disapproval.

Even if it were to collapse and become something else, we'd likely still not be a part of it. If you're so convinced the EU is failing, why not hang about and be a key state in shaping the new thing?
Ah, do you not remember that Cameron fella touring Europe and trying to suggest a few relatively minor changes?
Do you need reminding how that went?
Have you not seen the blinkered visions and denial discussed by Tusk, Junckers, and many other senior Eurocrats whilst others from individual countries within the EU also ask for reform?
Amongst them the Dutch MEP Hans Van Baalen; former EU President Jose Manuel Barroso; Hungarian PM Viktor Orban; Polish PM Beata Szylon ................ I will stop there or I may use up the entire page but you get the idea, I'm sure.

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