If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

Re: costs I read once that the shipping costs from Beijing to Newcastle by sea were the same as the rail freight costs from Newcastle to Manchester.

That's presumably because of the huge number of containers you can fit on a ship (hundreds? thousands?) Vs the contains you can fit on a train (10-20?).
Plus once you've got it from China -> Newcastle, you'll still need to get it from Newcastle -> Manchester anyway.

davomcdave

spikyone wrote: »

Of course, all of that means that the growth potential in the EU is also lower. All of the world's fastest-growing economies - those with the most potential to support our export market in future - are outside Europe. Our exports to non-EU countries have been consistently growing in recent years, despite our inability to trade on our own negotiated terms with those countries, and the potential for inconsequential regions of Belgium to torpedo deals. Just imagine how much greater our share of exports to non-EU countries could be if we were free to make our own trade deals rather than the ones that suit France and Germany. Not to mention being able to enter growth markets whilst they are still growing.

As for China, it may have a lower GDP per capita than most of the EU, but it also has a larger population than Europe all on its own. If you expect it not to overtake half of the EU in GDP per capita within the next decade or two, I expect you'll find yourself mistaken. Ask yourself, for the UK's future economic prosperity, would you rather be trading with Portugal or China?

Maybe Portugal seeing as they have rather more respect for my intellectual property rights, are a lot richer than the Chinese and are a lot easier to send stuff to as they are much closer.

Chinese GDP per capita is about 1/3rd of the EU's. The World Bank has Chinese GDP per capita growth at a rate of 6.4% and the European Union's as being 2%. If those two figures persist, and there is plenty of evidence and research to suggest that China's GDP and growth figures are wildly exaggerated and that their GDP will slow the larger it gets, it will take 28 years for China to overtake the EU

However the fact is that a country with 1.3 billion inhabitants and a rapidly aging population, thanks to Mao's single child policy, will not be growing per capita output at 6.4% in 30 years time assuming it has managed to maintain that growth in much of the meantime.

Herzlos

China is also a very hard market to sell into, partially due to protectionism and partially due to it's take on things like copyright. Lots of companies have been stung selling stuff into China, finding that if it's successful a clone pops up in quick order and completely under cuts them.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

I think you need to have a word with Conrad.

Keep trying.
Some relevance and indeed contribution to the discussion may yet appear - it is overdue, after all.

mayonnaise

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Keep trying.
Some relevance and indeed contribution to the discussion may yet appear - it is overdue, after all.

Just wanted to offer help addressing your selective reading issues.
Never mind. Carry on.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

China is also a very hard market to sell into, partially due to protectionism and partially due to it's take on things like copyright. Lots of companies have been stung selling stuff into China, finding that if it's successful a clone pops up in quick order and completely under cuts them.

A major influencing factor has been a reluctance to challenge that stance.
Chinese steel-dumping being one prime example.

Here is a list of how many copyright infringements from China the EU has dealt with:

In 2015, more than 80,000 detention cases were registered by Customs. As far as the over 40 million detained articles are concerned, the value of the equivalent genuine products is estimated to be just over 642 million euro.

https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/customs-controls/counterfeit-piracy-other-ipr-violations/ipr-infringements-facts-figures_en

Now see if you can find out how much the EU fined China as a result of these?
Compared to say Apple, or Volkswagen or ............... well, you get the idea.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

Just wanted to offer help addressing your selective reading issues.
Never mind. Carry on.

How kind but will you not first address your own?
I see we still await the valid contribution to the thread.

Now, much though I enjoy you almost Laurel-And-Hardy-esque reposts I for one will not further pollute this thread with inane responses.

Conrad

davomcdave wrote: »

The EU is 7% of the population of the world and almost 24% of its GDP.

The population isn't huge but it is rich. Even poor old Portugal, the forgotten member of the PIIGS, has a GDP per capita that is almost double that of super, soaraway China. Even Poland has a GDP per capita (in PPP $) that is greater than China's.

Only Bulgaria and Romania have a lower GDP per capita than China and Romania's isn't lower by very much

Yes but nobody is arguing we stop trading with this part of the world.


Furthermore 90% of growth over next 10-15 years is expected to come from outside the EU.

Conrad

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Keep trying.
Some relevance and indeed contribution to the discussion may yet appear - it is overdue, after all.

I have used terms such as 'your lot' to be fair!


But as you point out their duality is staggering. They constantly use terms such as Brexshitters, ignorant, racists etc but mainly I notice Brexiteers don't worry too much (I don't mean just here).

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

Yes but nobody is arguing we stop trading with this part of the world.


Furthermore 90% of growth over next 10-15 years is expected to come from outside the EU.

Hmm, 90% of growth is going to come from 93% of the world's population. Maybe the EU isn't quite finished just yet, according to your prediction at least.