If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

davomcdave wrote: »

Interesting piece in the Grauniad on the sugar market post-Brexit:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/27/brexit-sugar-beet-cane-tate-lyle-british-sugar

Maybe gives an insight into some of the challenges facing the EU, UK and RotW in sorting out trade in the Brave New World. Yes I know it's got a bit of a silly remainer flag waving thing going on but if you look past that to the substantive points it has some interesting things to say especially about subsidies to farmers outside the EU and dumping on international markets.

NZ is the only country I am aware of that has an actual free market in agricultural products although I am happy to concede that perhaps some smaller or poorer countries that I am unaware of do too.

The point the article makes about nobody in the British Government having had to think of this really for 40 years seemed pertinent. That's one of the places that Brexit could go seriously off the rails; nobody has done this before so it's all an experiment. It could turn out great, it could be a disaster or, most likely, it could be somewhere in the middle.

Time will tell.

If you can be bothered to look back a few months (I cannot) I did posts on the sugar opportunities and mentioned Tate & Lyle - we had quite a debate about it.


I also have mentioned a few times that Countryfile did a show from NZ farmers in which the farmers said ending subsidy was the making of NZ farming


I don't share your 'somewhere in the middle' synopsis, there is no reason we wont thrive. We didn't approach the Olympics or Paralympics with 'somewhere in the middle' in mind


As I say we make our own luck, we wont be just bobbing along like jellyfish on a tide of indiference

kabayiri

Filo25 wrote: »

Just to comment on the first bit.

There is currently no effective political opposition in this country at all, Labour are an absolute shambles and that won't be changing anytime soon.

It gives Theresa May free reign to do whatever she wants to do, and so far that appears to be whatever the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory Party and some of the more right of centre press wants her to.
...

It's a tremendous right wing opportunity. Scotland is not the only place where nationalism is growing. There's a mass of disaffected UKIP votes just waiting to be scooped up.

Conrad

kabayiri wrote: »

The EU is still an experiment.

Yes, Remainers always imply staying as we are somehow equates with no change, no risk, a settled known future.


Staying in is full of risk.

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

If you can be bothered to look back a few months (I cannot) I did posts on the sugar opportunities and mentioned Tate & Lyle - we had quite a debate about it.


I also have mentioned a few times that Countryfile did a show from NZ farmers in which the farmers said ending subsidy was the making of NZ farming


I don't share your 'somewhere in the middle' synopsis, there is no reason we wont thrive. We didn't approach the Olympics or Paralympics with 'somewhere in the middle' in mind


As I say we make our own luck, we wont be just bobbing along like jellyfish on a tide of indiference

I love your optimism. I just feel that your faith in Britain's civil servants to cut a deal is at best naive because it's the civil servants that do all the negotiating, the pollies just sign off on it.

Arklight

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

My earlier post makes very clear exactly what happened and when.
The beliefs were in print in media around the world at the end of February - they're not mine.
Here are more:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-boerse-m-a-lse-idUKKBN1650WI

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/london-stock-exchange-deutsche-borse-merger-latest-european-commission-block-eu-approval-unlikely-a7601226.html

Carry on with your disparagement though.
It makes it so much easier for those with an open mind to see exactly how limited the thoughts of others can be.

What you fail to grasp is just why the German Deutsche Boerse are quite so keen to get their hands on the LSE?
And why this interest is heightened now, with Brexit underway?
Let's see if intelectual ability is capable of interpreting these facts?
Or why the original planned merging with German interests would be better than your critical suggestion of NASDAQ?

This could be interesting; I await with anticipation.

Yes, I'm afraid your posts aren't quite as gleaming with clarity as you believe them to be.

The Boerse deal was meant to be a merger, headquartered in London. I doubt that will be the case with the American takeover.

I had a wry chuckle at your belief that you have an open mind, by the way.

Moby

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/29/theresa-may-triggers-article-50-with-warning-of-consequences-for-uk “We understand that there will be consequences for the UK of leaving the EU. We know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy. We know that UK companies that trade with the EU will have to align with rules agreed by institutions of which we are no longer a part, just as we do in other overseas markets. We accept that,” she said. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the hazardous path we are about to take.....completely unnecessarily of course!.........but as David Davis has said ..........the eventual deal will be just as good as what we have now???? It's going to be so much fun watching these characters squirming around, pointing the fingers of blame when it all goes wrong. It's like watching a car crash in slo mo.....batten down the hatches folks....hard times are coming.............but at least we've taken back control so our impending poverty and reduction in world influence will be worth it! Meanwhile the Germans go from strength to strength under a liberal progressive internationally respected leader....who is being challenged by the left in Martin Schultz.......another moderate liberal.....look at the types representing us in comparison. Geez who really did win the war!

mayonnaise

Matt_L

Moby wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/29/theresa-may-triggers-article-50-with-warning-of-consequences-for-uk “We understand that there will be consequences for the UK of leaving the EU. We know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy. We know that UK companies that trade with the EU will have to align with rules agreed by institutions of which we are no longer a part, just as we do in other overseas markets. We accept that,” she said. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the hazardous path we are about to take.....completely unnecessarily of course!.........but as David Davis has said ..........the eventual deal will be just as good as what we have now???? It's going to be so much fun watching these characters squirming around, pointing the fingers of blame when it all goes wrong. It's like watching a car crash in slo mo.....batten down the hatches folks....hard times are coming.............but at least we've taken back control so our impending poverty and reduction in world influence will be worth it! Meanwhile the Germans go from strength to strength under a liberal progressive internationally respected leader....who is being challenged by the left in Martin Schultz.......another moderate liberal.....look at the types representing us in comparison. Geez who really did win the war!

Yes, perhaps this doom and gloom you spout will happen in the exact same way as we were told it would if vote leave won..

Remember the thousands of jobs we were told would go? The massive increase in prices? The huge loss of house hold income? The emergency Budget? World War 3? We were promised by the remoaners that this would have happened by now....

Filo25

Matt_L wrote: »

Yes, perhaps this doom and gloom you spout will happen in the exact same way as we were told it would if vote leave won..

Remember the thousands of jobs we were told would go? The massive increase in prices? The huge loss of house hold income? The emergency Budget? World War 3? We were promised by the remoaners that this would have happened by now....

There was no shortage of rubbish spouted by both sides during the debate in the run up to the referendum, it wasn't a campaign which reflected well on any of our politicians.

Arklight

The truth is probably somewhere in-between. We'll adapt in the end and the world won't end.

It's an absolutely massive headache in the meantime to achieve such a modest outcome.