If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

I wont say I told you so, but right from the start I said we'd likely have to carry on paying something. I don't have a problem as long as it is proportionate and nothing like the £8-9bn pa now

What do you deem proportionate?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Let's lighten the mood a little.
Because I for one understand that today - the day Article 50 is finally presented to the EU - could be very distressing for some of the vehemently pro-remain advocates here in these forums.

So, a tongue-in-cheek look at 12 people/things that ruined the EU:

But let’s just suppose that, when the European leaders sat down for lunch at the Quirinal Palace, some of them had a little too much of the pinot grigio and waxed nostalgic about the days when the idea of a united Europe was still young and promising and beautiful. And then they talked about this week and how British Prime Minister Theresa May would send her goodbye letter and they started slurring their words, saying Grexit, Brexit, Frexit, and they finally admitted to each other that something has gone horribly wrong.

http://www.politico.eu/article/12-people-things-that-ruined-the-european-union-viktor-orban-treaty-of-rome-boris-johnson-antigone-loudiadis-francois-mitterand-christoph-blocher-edith-cresson/

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

Is that the moving of goalposts I see already?

In the run-up to the referendum good old "Remoaners" like me were told we would get a great EU deal as they needed us more than we needed them.

Many of us silly old Remoaners also pointed out that we fully expected the EU to get the blame from the more enthusiastic Brexiteers if such a deal didn't materialise.

You could at least wait until the final deal becomes apparent before becoming starting down that path.

To all the politicians who supported Brexit, you promised people the world, you won, now get on with delivering it.

We all need you to make a success of this somehow, no matter how likely we think that is to happen at present.

Problem is so many prominent Remaoners are batting for the EU and effectively empowering it to offer poorer terms. The EU might chose to exploit this disunity in the hope a bad deal would give the Remaoner like Hessletine and Blair an opportunity to alter the political climate and keep us in afterall.


This places us in the position of having to accept we must walk away and go WTO if need be otherwise we will be seen as weak


Personally WTO is my preferred option anyway - total freedom and autonomy and again note lots of nations exporting perfectly well into Europe under WTO. Port delays etc are another Remoaner myth. Supply chains etc can all be worked around


Tariffs already wiped out by fall in Sterling's value. We would collect double the tariffs the EU would

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Problem is so many prominent Remaoners are batting for the EU and effectively empowering it to offer poorer terms. The EU might chose to exploit this disunity in the hope a bad deal would give the Remaoner like Hessletine and Blair an opportunity to alter the political climate and keep us in afterall.

Not batting for the EU at all, just realistic as to our negotiating position.

Personally WTO is my preferred option anyway - total freedom and autonomy and again note lots of nations exporting perfectly well into Europe under WTO. Port delays etc are another Remoaner myth. Supply chains etc can all be worked around

Spoken as someone who's never dealt with trade or supply chains. We can only work around supply chain delays by increasing lead times (or compensating by ordering early and warehousing), neither of which are great for a lean, nimble economy.

WTO also then means we need to make agreement with the entire WTO regarding any new terms. If you thought making a deal with the EU27 was bad...

Conrad

BTW - I've just heard first hand that armed police are swarming over Westminster Bridge..... sirens going off.


Might just be that PMQs is due though?

Arklight

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

You're very late with that - as well as being very wrong, yet again.
This is becoming a habit.

FYI the LSE rejected Deutsche Boerse's planned merger on 27th February this year because of EU demands to sell of the Italian trading arm; this was widely commented-upon in this thread.
Here's just one link though:
http://www.bnn.ca/lse-dashes-deutsche-boerse-merger-hopes-by-rejecting-eu-demand-1.681913



BTW, the LSE has not collapsed in the month following that news.
In fact this is supposedly the fifth attempt at merger:
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/29/deutsche-boerse-lse-merger-plans-rejected-by-eu-regulators.html

Keep on trying to talk down the UK in your various failed ways though; correcting your errors and misconceptions is becoming an increasingly amusing distraction.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/29/brussels-kills-lse-deutsche-boerse-merger/

"Brexit effectively killed this deal off nine months ago so it’s fitting that EU competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager delivered the coup de grace just a couple of hours before the UK triggers Article 50," said ETX Capital analyst Neil Wilson.

"It brings to an end a fairly dubious history of proposed mergers for LSE at the same time. Its future looks to be, like Britain’s, outside of Europe."

This is in every paper today so I'm looking forward to your explanation as to how they are all wrong and you are right.

It seems like many Brexit proponents, your colossal self belief may not entirely correlate to your actual ability.

Which is why many of us aren't as confident in the future you are creating as you are.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Arklight wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/29/brussels-kills-lse-deutsche-boerse-merger/



This is in every paper today so I'm looking forward to your explanation as to how they are all wrong and you are right.

It seems like many Brexit proponents, your colossal self belief may not entirely correlate to your actual ability.

Which is why many of us aren't as confident in the future you are creating as you are.

My earlier post makes very clear exactly what happened and when.
The beliefs were in print in media around the world at the end of February - they're not mine.
Here are more:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-boerse-m-a-lse-idUKKBN1650WI

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/london-stock-exchange-deutsche-borse-merger-latest-european-commission-block-eu-approval-unlikely-a7601226.html

Carry on with your disparagement though.
It makes it so much easier for those with an open mind to see exactly how limited the thoughts of others can be.

What you fail to grasp is just why the German Deutsche Boerse are quite so keen to get their hands on the LSE?
And why this interest is heightened now, with Brexit underway?
Let's see if intelectual ability is capable of interpreting these facts?
Or why the original planned merging with German interests would be better than your critical suggestion of NASDAQ?

This could be interesting; I await with anticipation.

Filo25

Conrad wrote: »

Problem is so many prominent Remaoners are batting for the EU and effectively empowering it to offer poorer terms. The EU might chose to exploit this disunity in the hope a bad deal would give the Remaoner like Hessletine and Blair an opportunity to alter the political climate and keep us in afterall.


This places us in the position of having to accept we must walk away and go WTO if need be otherwise we will be seen as weak


Personally WTO is my preferred option anyway - total freedom and autonomy and again note lots of nations exporting perfectly well into Europe under WTO. Port delays etc are another Remoaner myth. Supply chains etc can all be worked around


Tariffs already wiped out by fall in Sterling's value. We would collect double the tariffs the EU would

Just to comment on the first bit.

There is currently no effective political opposition in this country at all, Labour are an absolute shambles and that won't be changing anytime soon.

It gives Theresa May free reign to do whatever she wants to do, and so far that appears to be whatever the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory Party and some of the more right of centre press wants her to.

May shows no sign of being particularly influenced by any Remain leaning instincts so lets not try to blame any of us who think this path may not happen to be particularly economically wise if we subsequently prove to be correct.

On this supposedly happy day for many of you, there appears to be a lot of attempts to start blaming others for some bizarre reason, unless some of you aren't quite as optimistic about the future as you claim.

In any case its time to stop playing politics and the blame game and time to start working towards actually delivering something.

davomcdave

Interesting piece in the Grauniad on the sugar market post-Brexit:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/27/brexit-sugar-beet-cane-tate-lyle-british-sugar

Maybe gives an insight into some of the challenges facing the EU, UK and RotW in sorting out trade in the Brave New World. Yes I know it's got a bit of a silly remainer flag waving thing going on but if you look past that to the substantive points it has some interesting things to say especially about subsidies to farmers outside the EU and dumping on international markets.

NZ is the only country I am aware of that has an actual free market in agricultural products although I am happy to concede that perhaps some smaller or poorer countries that I am unaware of do too.

The point the article makes about nobody in the British Government having had to think of this really for 40 years seemed pertinent. That's one of the places that Brexit could go seriously off the rails; nobody has done this before so it's all an experiment. It could turn out great, it could be a disaster or, most likely, it could be somewhere in the middle.

Time will tell.

kabayiri

It's all an experiment. The creation of exotic finance products before the GFC was an experiment. The Euro was and still is an experiment. The EU is still an experiment. So called globalization is an experiment.

You could argue that the time to discuss trading with the world is now. The world is awash with energy production. There are plenty of food producers like Argentina keen to sell more to the UK too. There is massive manufacturing capacity in places like China.

Let's not be too insular. A problem for the UK is a potential opportunity for other states around the world.

I notice that Germany talks a good EU game, but she has signed some truly massive deals directly between Germany and other countries like China. When Cameron was crowing about a £1.5bn trade deal with China, Germany was doing a deal worth over 10bn Euro. How much trade is Germany boosting with the likes of Greece?