If we vote for Brexit what happens

Rinoa

From Guido:

Tumbling British exports and an increase in European imports means that the UK’s trade deficit with the EU hit an all time high of £23 billion between November and January.
The trade deficit – the value of exports minus the value of imports – is crucial for measuring British businesses overall performance overseas.
Meanwhile, British exports to the continent are at their lowest since 2009. Divided between the 28 EU member states you get an average gap of over £3 billion per each common market member. Merkel might not want a free trade agreement, but German businesses will…
Buried away in the ONS’ official data is an increase in EU imports of £674 million in January, while British exports rose a paltry £12 million. This includes a massive £300 million import bung for the Netherlands, while flagging economies Italy and Spain were able to flog us £100 million worth of pasta and sangria each.
They need us more than we need them…

BobQ

Rinoa wrote: »

From Guido:

The point is not whether they export more to us than we do to them. The UK exports 45% of its exports to the EU. In % terms the EU's exports to us are about 10% of the exports of the EU.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

The point is not whether they export more to us than we do to them. The UK exports 45% of its exports to the EU. In % terms the EU's exports to us are about 10% of the exports of the EU.

the point is that it is mutually beneficial for the trade to continue.
the only people who would stop the trade continuing are the EU27 leaders and so doing harm to their own people.
These EU leaders are the people you wish to determine your laws and regulations.

gfplux

CLAPTON wrote: »

Your considered view is that the BMW workers (or other EU workers who export to the UK) who stand to lose jobs with be primarily concerned about the domino effect rather than job loses.
Interesting although I'm a little doubtful.

Missed again Clapton. Keep it up.

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

Missed again Clapton. Keep it up.

ok
so you have stopped debating and simply posting facile nonsense

no problem.

BobQ

CLAPTON wrote: »

the point is that it is mutually beneficial for the trade to continue.
the only people who would stop the trade continuing are the EU27 leaders and so doing harm to their own people.
These EU leaders are the people you wish to determine your laws and regulations.

Of course it is in the interests of both for trade to continue. But it is more in our interest than theirs. In any negotiation, we are likely to get a less favourable deal than the EU.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

Of course it is in the interests of both for trade to continue. But it is more in our interest than theirs. In any negotiation, we are likely to get a less favourable deal than the EU.

Is this what the EU does when negotiating with all countries smaller than itself; e.g. developing countries, Aus, New Zealand, Canada etc.
No fair play?
Do you find this an attractive feature of the people you choose to make your laws ? You definitively want these people to rule over you?

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

Of course it is in the interests of both for trade to continue. But it is more in our interest than theirs. In any negotiation, we are likely to get a less favourable deal than the EU.

EU imports exceed exports from the UK. The EU needs our trade. Given the current poor performance.

cells

The UK would still be a strong rich country even if the EU wanted to 'teach us a lesson'. One of our biggest imports for most countries are cars and if the EU does not accept the UK exporting services to them then the UK can put up a tarrif on German and European Cars.

maybe the UK will just become a more domestic economy.

For instance instead of building 2 million cars, exporting 1.5 million of them, and importing 2 million cars we may just import less and export less.
We might find we reduce our exports to 0.5 million and consume internally 1.5m of the cars built in the UK and import 1 million cars. So imports go down 1 million and exports go down 1 million. Overall GDP is about the same but exports/imports down.


Also a lot of UK exports must be IP software and media.
How would an angry germany stop the imports of say smartphones which have some UK IP inside of them? They are service exports that no barrier can stop.

Also I think our biggest trading partner is ireland and vice versa. How could the EU say no to UK trade when it would hit one of its members much much harder than it would us?



If we could keep free movement of people between the UK and Germany/Francce/Spain/Italy/Poland then I would vote leave but since this is more of a vote on immigrants than on economics I am leaning towards voting to stay

cells

Also trade is a lot more fluid than people imagine. I used to work for a business and we used to import machinery from Italy and Germany and Spain but could have moved to American and Chinese supply without too much problem.

We probably import a significant (but small in ££ terms) base foodstuffs from the EU and again it would be simple to just buy off the Americans or Argentina or a whole host of nations. We import in £££ more processed foods eg wine cheese chocolates etc again nothing to stop us consuming domestic production or buying from other nations

Also if the EU did want to shoot itself in the foot there is no doubt our service industry would contract. Thats definitely bad. However our manufacturing industry would take up a lot of the slack. Instead of importing so many cars the UK could just use the cars built in the UK and potentially expand more production here. The demand for cars wont go away so if the germans dont want to buy our services the economy will rearrange itself to import less german goods.


Also we import quite a lot of electricity from france and the Netherlands. If we stopped doing that we could just utilise the power stations we have at higher capacity. We would stop importing £1B of EU eletricity and would instead pay £300m to the russians or Americans for coal/gas

and of course the net contribution to the EU budget is quite significant.


Overall on an economic argument I think Im 60% exit 40% stay.
However on an immigrants I dont like em argment im 10% exit 90% stay