If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

There was never a groundswell movement to adapt the Euro in the UK.
The libdems were in favour yes, and I vaguely remember Blair and Brown waffling on about 5 economic test that needed to be met, which were never met, then Brown killed it off completely in 2005-06.

Muddling the joining the euro debate with the current debate on potentially exiting the largest free trade area in the world is just another sign of desperation in the brexit camp.

There was a massive groundswell of all the great and good (CBI, BBC, media, countless CEOs , most of the 'well educated' etc) in favour of joining and predicting doom and irrelevance for the UK if we failed to do so.
Blair was welcome known to favour joining, it was only Brown that saved us.

The point about mentioning the euro debate, is that all the same people who supported joining the euro and now 'stayers' and the media is constantly quoting these peoples as some sort of economic gurus whereas they were wrong last time.

Filo25

mwpt wrote: »

<Tangental>

If we had joined the Euro, I believe the HPC mob (and me I guess as an independent) would have got their predicted proper housing crash, even in London, in 2008.

Totally agree, the UK economy is just too different to the Eurozone core countries to make it work, I remember writing as much in my Economics final paper all the way back in 1993, when the monetary union was just an idea rather than a reality, I would love to claim that made me some kind of oracle but let's be honest its pretty obvious to a lot of us.

Had the UK joined the Euro I would be very much on the other side of this debate right now as well.

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

Totally agree, the UK economy is just too different to the Eurozone core countries to make it work, I remember writing as much in my Economics final paper all the way back in 1993, when the monetary union was just an idea rather than a reality, I would love to claim that made me some kind of oracle but let's be honest its pretty obvious to a lot of us.

Had the UK joined the Euro I would be very much on the other side of this debate right now as well.

do you think that that sort of analysis would have shown that it was equally inappropriate for Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal to join the euro?

gfplux

CLAPTON wrote: »

Except for the handouts we give the EU, any other harm the EU will suffer, will be self inflicted by the malice you seem to endorse.
I find it odd that you support and admire these EU rulers who wish to inflict harm on their own people for no gains.

missed again Clapton.
I was speaking of the mood of the "man in the street" not the "rulers"

gfplux

CLAPTON wrote: »

Except for the handouts we give the EU, any other harm the EU will suffer, will be self inflicted by the malice you seem to endorse.
I find it odd that you support and admire these EU rulers who wish to inflict harm on their own people for no gains.

sorry I should have said missed twice.
your first sentence is a big miss. The harm people see is a Brexit will might cause a domino effect.
Perhaps (I don't like saying this, but it's for your own good) you need to slow down, take a deep breath and read other people's posts a second time to get the proper meaning.

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

sorry I should have said missed twice.
your first sentence is a big miss. The harm people see is a Brexit will might cause a domino effect.
Perhaps (I don't like saying this, but it's for your own good) you need to slow down, take a deep breath and read other people's posts a second time to get the proper meaning.

Your considered view is that the BMW workers (or other EU workers who export to the UK) who stand to lose jobs with be primarily concerned about the domino effect rather than job loses.
Interesting although I'm a little doubtful.

Filo25

CLAPTON wrote: »

do you think that that sort of analysis would have shown that it was equally inappropriate for Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal to join the euro?

I don't know enough about the relevant economies to make a particularly informed comment.

From what I have seen though none of them have adjusted to their new fixed exchange rate compared to the rest of the EU particularly well, wages growth has outstripped productivity growth compared to the likes of Germany, and with relatively inflexible labour markets that's not something they have still been able to correct.

Like I say though far from an expert on them!

Sapphire

Filo25 wrote: »

Totally agree, the UK economy is just too different to the Eurozone core countries to make it work.

It's not just the UK economy that is 'just too different', but the economies of mainland European countries are generally incompatible with each other, something that is going to cause the Euro to collapse in the not too distant future. Same sort of argument applies to the political systems of the nations in the EU. With nations democratically electing a variety of political 'systems' (from extreme left to centre and right), they are just too different from each other to make it (a political union) work. They will never agree on all political actions – especially where these affect their sovereignty and democratic rights, as they are now beginning to realise. That's why I think the EU will break up, and why I'm voting for out. The fall-out from the break-up will be increasingly detrimental to Europe the longer this undemocratic club of eurocrats is allowed to exist. No kind of 'ever greater political union' (imposed by Germany) was ever voted for by Europe's citizens. Once we are out, we can adapt trade agreements as necessary, and go our own way politically. :T

Filo25

Sapphire wrote: »

It's not just the UK economy that is 'just too different', but the economies of mainland European countries are generally incompatible with each other, something that is going to cause the Euro to collapse in the not too distant future. Same sort of argument applies to the political systems of the nations in the EU. With nations democratically electing a variety of political 'systems' (from extreme left to centre and right), they are just too different from each other to make it (a political union) work. They will never agree on all political actions – especially where these affect their sovereignty and democratic rights, as they are now beginning to realise. That's why I think the EU will break up, and why I'm voting for out. The fall-out from the break-up will be increasingly detrimental to Europe the longer this undemocratic club of eurocrats is allowed to exist. No kind of 'ever greater political union' (imposed by Germany) was ever voted for by Europe's citizens. Once we are out, we can adapt trade agreements as necessary, and go our own way politically. :T

I do think this overstates the risk of catastrophic breakup of the EU, its hardly the only possible scenario from here, not would I say its the most likely.

Maybe the current challenges lead to a more devolved EU (which I would think most Eurosceptics would welcome) or an increase in the trend towards a 2 tier Europe, with the core countries moving towards increased political economic and political integration, with the peripheral countries reversing that trend, neither of those scenarios would seem awful for the UK.

As stated elsewhere, "good" favourable trade deals for the UK will not be quickly negotiated, the notion that all nations will be motivated by some grand appreciation that the theory of comparative advantage says we are all better off it we trade freely, and therefore agree simple free trade of goods and services is not necessarily backed up by the reality of trade deal negotiations that we tend to see.

angrypirate

Filo25 wrote: »

I do think this overstates the risk of catastrophic breakup of the EU, its hardly the only possible scenario from here, not would I say its the most likely.

Maybe the current challenges lead to a more devolved EU (which I would think most Eurosceptics would welcome) or an increase in the trend towards a 2 tier Europe, with the core countries moving towards increased political economic and political integration, with the peripheral countries reversing that trend, neither of those scenarios would seem awful for the UK.

As stated elsewhere, "good" favourable trade deals for the UK will not be quickly negotiated, the notion that all nations will be motivated by some grand appreciation that the theory of comparative advantage says we are all better off it we trade freely, and therefore agree simple free trade of goods and services is not necessarily backed up by the reality of trade deal negotiations that we tend to see.

Interesting article in relation to the stability of the EU post Brexit here
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/08/whole-of-europe-risks-spinning-into-crisis-if-leaders-mishandle/
Good line at the end
"My point is that the whole of Europe is sitting on a bed of nitroglycerin. It is a fair bet that EU leaders would refrain from reprisals that would make their crisis infinitely worse, but it is only a bet."