If we vote for Brexit what happens

Filo25

The problem I have with staycations generally is that finding good hotels in the more desirable tourist spots tends to be expensive, that said with the fall in Sterling in recent years that's becoming an increasing issue elsewhere in the world as well.

Its not quite the glory days pre financial crisis when you could go to the US and live like kings at $2:£1

I normally go to the US once a year but its just getting too expensive now with the Dollar where it is, plus you never quite know what immigration rules the Orange One will bring in while you are waiting ot fly!

Will probably do a few weekend breaks in Europe this year and forget about a big holiday unless I see a bit of a bargain, I could use a more frugal year anyway.

Tromking

setmefree2 wrote: »

An EU national who thinks Britain has nothing to offer outside London - bit like saying there is nothing to see in the States outside New York...or France has nothing to offer outside of Paris....a tad ignorant, don't you think?

We shouldn't underestimate the embittered "EU National" his/her continued annoyance at the temerity of the non-metropolitan Brits who voted Brexit.:)
I live in small market town on the edge of Dartmoor and we were rammed with tourists for all of last summer, especially when sterling dropped after the referendum. I recall speaking with a Dutch chap, who out of curiousity took short break in the UK post the referendum and was shocked to see that rather than witnessing a country and its people in sackcloth and ashes, it was the usual happy-go-lucky Britain he`d always admired.

setmefree2

Same Article - great example of Fake News - that is - opinion masquerading as fact

Critical
Fianna F!il's Brexit spokesman Stephen Donnelly was heavily critical of the British government during a D!il debate yesterday.

He said that nine months on from the referendum, "the people who most actively sought this result have not produced a single piece of paper demonstrating any clear positive outcome from this decision".
"For years an increasingly hysterical anti-EU sentiment was allowed to develop, with the EU being the all-purpose whipping boy for those who longed nostalgically for some bygone era of national greatness.

"It culminated in an ugly, dishonest and at times sinister campaign which won a narrow majority for leaving the EU."


Mr Donnelly argued that "in case anyone is fooled by the rhetoric claiming how the economy is going fine, the facts show that deep, long-term damage is under way".
"A massive decline in the value of sterling, and dramatic interventions by the Bank of England have given a short-term injection to the economy. But inflation is on its way and many sectors of the economy have begun to slow," Mr Donnelly said.

Irish Independent

http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/transition-period-on-trade-deals-is-vital-in-brexit-35554280.html

setmefree2

Filo25 wrote: »

Its not quite the glory days pre financial crisis when you could go to the US and live like kings at $2:£1

Indeed. We were lucky enough to have 3 weeks in California in 2007 at $2 to the £1. Couldn't really stay like though could it? And it did hurt our exporters and tourism.

Pound goes up pound goes down - and you tailor your holidays around that.

Turkey and Tunisia will probably be cheap this year.....:cool:

setmefree2

'Transition period on trade deals is vital in Brexit'

A transition period to allow Britain to gradually leave the European Union "must be involved" for any changes to trading relationships, Taoiseach Enda Kenny has said.

Mr Kenny said the talks that would start after Article 50 was triggered on March 29 would be "complex and lengthy".

He said that he hoped to see "greater clarity" on the UK approach to the negotiation process in the coming weeks.
"Our headline priorities are clear. We want to continue to facilitate trade on the island of Ireland and between Ireland and Great Britain, protect the achievement of the Northern Ireland peace process and the Good Friday Agreement and maintain the common travel area," he said.

"We also, of course, want to influence the future direction of the EU itself. I have highlighted and explained our particular priorities in all my meetings with my EU counterparts."
Mr Kenny indicated that he would be the Government's representative at a special meeting of EU leaders on April 29 where the guidelines for the negotiations will be decided.

http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/transition-period-on-trade-deals-is-vital-in-brexit-35554280.html

setmefree2

Welcome to Article 218

Article 50 clearly requires that negotiators “take account of the framework” of a future relationship with the U.K. But EU officials and law experts said that the treaties also effectively block Barnier from negotiating such a relationship — whether that is a free trade deal, some kind of association agreement, or something else.

To do so, Barnier must receive new negotiating directives under Article 218, which governs how accords are reached with “third countries or international organizations.”
“You cannot conclude an agreement on trade with the U.K. on the basis of Article 50 because the aim, the content, of the procedures are different,” said Jean-Claude Piris, who served as director-general of the legal service of Council of the European Union from 1988 to 2010, and worked as a legal adviser during negotiations on the Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon treaties.

If the negotiators overstep their legal authority, Piris warned, the European Court of Justice could invalidate any deal they reach.
“So the directives of the Council to the Commission … will not go on trade,” he said. “And they could be canceled by the court if it did.”
Piris added: “You need to act according to the legal basis given for each procedure.”

While Article 50 deals very specifically with the departure of a country from the EU, Article 218 sets out the procedures by which the EU can make all sorts of agreements including trade deals, strategic-political accords, or environmental agreements. Indeed, when it comes to negotiating a withdrawal agreement for the U.K., Article 50 mostly kicks the action to Article 218 Section 3, which describes how the EU should go about authorizing talks and appointing a chief negotiator.
But the rules under Article 50 and Article 218 are quire different. For instance, while a withdrawal agreement between the U.K. and the EU requires the support of only a qualified majority of EU countries, other agreements often require unanimity. Article 50 has a two-year deadline, while negotiations under Article 218 can drag on for years.

There are other key differences. For instance, Article 50 gives the European Parliament a veto over any withdrawal agreement; Article 218, by contrast, requires Parliament approval for some agreements but only consultation with the Parliament for others.
For this reason, legal experts have concluded the EU could not broker a future relationship with the U.K. under Article 50 even if it wanted to.

Uncharted waters

There are signs that the U.K. has already recognized the legal obstacles to negotiating a future trade agreement, which is why officials have quietly been exploring a back-up plan to use World Trade Organization rules in the absence of a new deal with the EU.

Because no country has ever left the EU, there is little precedent for what lies ahead. But the parameters are starting to come into focus.

http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-michel-barnier-mandate-goal-in-brexit-talks-negotiations-divorce-first-trade-deal-citizens-rights/

setmefree2

Brexit fears mount in Spain

The UK imported 1.5m tonnes of Spanish fruits and vegetables with a value of €1.762bn last year

Maintaining the UK’s relationship with the single market is a top priority for Spanish fruit and vegetable exporters, according to Fepex.As the UK government prepared to kick off Brexit negotiations on Wednesday, the Spanish exporter federation said concerns among its members over the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union were rising.
“Fepex considers it a priority to continue with a single market without borders between the EU and the UK to preserve market access and maintain the homogeneity of legislation, since the phasing out of EU rules could throw up phytosanitary barriers and create competitive distortions,” the association said in a press release.
The UK is Spain’s third biggest export market, taking 1.5m tonnes of fruits and vegetables with a value of €1.762bn in 2016.
Vegetable exports to the UK rose by 11 per cent last year to €815.9m, with cauliflowers, lettuce and tomatoes the three leading products in value.
Fruit exports increased by 7 per cent to €946.4m during the same period. Mandarins are the biggest individual item but the biggest rise in shipments was in raspberries (+38 per cent).
Agricultural union COAG said the cost of the UK leaving the single market would be considerable.
“Walking away from single market is not easy and the ensuing financial losses and trade restrictions would end up hurting everyone,” Jos! Luis Miguel de Diego told Spanish news channel RT.
While the UK was unlikely to change its supply sources in the short term, an unsatisfactory outcome to negotiations could lead to the UK establishing preferential trade deals with other countries such as the Commonwealth nations, Miguel de Diego said.
Meanwhile, Argentina believes exports of fresh fruit and vegetable to the UK could rise sharply in the short term following Brexit. Speaking during a trade mission to London this week, Luis Miguel Etchevehere, president of the Argentine Rural Society (SRA) said the UK's decision to leave the EU created a major opportunity to boost trade between the two nations.
SRA identifed lemons, blueberries, mandarins, topfruit and cherries as potential winners, claiming exports to the UK could reach levels not seen since the imposition of restrictive trade policies imposed by Cristina Kirchner's government.

http://www.fruitnet.com/fpj/article/171734/brexit-fears-mount-in-spain

setmefree2

"Kenya starts off new trade partnership negotiations with Britain

By David Musyoka NAIROBI (Xinhua) -- Kenya has started negotiations with Britain to maintain its market shares as the latter prepares to leave the European Union (EU).
Principal Secretary of International Trade Chris Kiptoo told Xinhua in a telephone interview that informal trade negotiation has started between the two countries.
“We have started talks with UK officials as part of ensuring we have maintained our market once the country formally leaves EU. The talks are going on at both ends, but formal discussion will start once UK formally exits EU,” said Kiptoo.
As time nears for Britain to leave the EU formally, Kenya is compelled to devise new ways to maintain its market share in the EU and in Britain.
Britain occupies the fourth position in terms of export destination of Kenyan goods after Uganda, the Netherlands, and the United States. Out of the total Kenyan exports to the EU market, Britain enjoys a 20-percent share, underscoring the need for the Kenyan government to renegotiate the trade deals."

http://www.coastweek.com/4011-Kenya-starts-off-trade-negotiations-with-Britain.htm

Moby

mayonnaise wrote: »

You made a bit of a mistake revealing you're an EU national, always_sunny.
I'm afraid all your future contributions will be dismissed by the Ultras on this forum as merely those of an EU national, as opposed to a Great British (capital G) National.

Well they'd better not pigeon hole me in that way. .....I'm Welsh, British and European! https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/22/uk-based-airlines-told-to-move-to-europe-after-brexit-or-lose-major-routes

setmefree2

Bit more on that WTO loophole

REVEALED: UK could have free trade with EU for 10 YEARS in loophole keeping barriers down

BRITAIN could enjoy free trade with the European Union for a decade after Brexit thanks to international rules that would see no tariffs imposed for 10 years.

Phil Brown, a trade adviser to PWC, claimed the provision could present a possible solution which would allow a settlement on divorce terms that suits both parties to be achieved.
He said: “It is technically feasible and the question then comes down to politics.”

However this is exactly why Lorand Bartels, a law specialist at Cambridge University, claims the provision laid out in article 24 of the WTO’s general agreement on trade and tariffs would not work.
She said the clause existed to allow signatories to a set free trade agreement time in a bid to reduce barriers to discussion.
However in the UK’s case, there are already minimal barriers form the outset.
She added: “It mistakes what a transition is all about.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/782120/UK-free-trade-deal-European-Union-WTO-loophole-tariffs-Brexit