If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

Hammond Enjoys Budget Respite as U.K. Fiscal Deficit Narrows

• Deficit at 1.8 billion pounds, least for a February since 2007
• Borrowing flattered by accounting changes, one-time effects

The budget deficit last month was 1.8 billion pounds ($2.2 billion), the best performance for any February since 2007, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. Revenue surged 7.1 percent from a year earlier and spending rose just 0.5 percent.
It left the deficit in the first 11 months of the fiscal year at 47.8 billion pounds, comfortably on course to achieve the Office for Budget Responsibility’s full-year forecast of 51.7 billion pounds.

The budget watchdog slashed its 2016-17 projection this month from 68.2 billion pounds. While the economy’s unexpected buoyancy since the June Brexit vote has boosted tax receipts, the Treasury is also benefiting from factors that are not expected to be repeated. These include an estimated 4 billion-pound dividend-tax windfall.

The deficit in 2017-18 is forecast to grow to 58.3 billion pounds -- or 2.9 percent of GDP

Revenue Boost

Revenue was boosted last month by a 14 percent jump in income tax. Corporation tax surged 17 percent, partly reflecting accounting changes, and value-added tax on sales rose 2.5 percent. On the spending side, higher debt-interest costs were offset by lower departmental spending and welfare costs. Overall, the current budget was in surplus, while net investment rose.

In the first 11 months of 2016-17, cash borrowing stood at 52.8 billion pounds, leaving the Treasury almost 20 billion pounds of room to achieve its full-year target of 72.5 billion pounds. It suggests no additional gilt sales will be needed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-21/u-k-s-hammond-gets-good-fiscal-news-after-budget-reversal

always_sunny

kabayiri wrote: »

I think a bigger impact of weak currency will be UK tourism to those traditional European destinations.

The lower buying power might force people in to considering other options.

The renaissance in the all inclusive market could continue, as the tour operators see it as a way of cushioning the consumer from their reduced buying power.

This would keep more of the spend with the majors, and impact the local tourist restaurants who rely on discretionary spend.

What other option? With a weak currency the best option would be domestic travel but unfortunately the choice within the UK is limited.

I know folks are going to list the million and one locations in the UK, but reality is a week in Margate ain't going to cut it.
It is pretty factual that beside London, the rest of the UK does not attract much tourism.
I wonder how many are going to Hull given that it's the City of Culture 2017!

StevieJ

always_sunny wrote: »

What other option? With a weak currency the best option would be domestic travel but unfortunately the choice within the UK is limited.

I know folks are going to list the million and one locations in the UK, but reality is a week in Margate ain't going to cut it.
It is pretty factual that beside London, the rest of the UK does not attract much tourism.
I wonder how many are going to Hull given that it's the City of Culture 2017!

We get a few people visiting Chester Zoo, oh and too many visiting Chester racecourse (via the pubs).

kabayiri

always_sunny wrote: »

What other option? With a weak currency the best option would be domestic travel but unfortunately the choice within the UK is limited.
..
I wonder how many are going to Hull given that it's the City of Culture 2017!

Shorter holidays
Fewer holidays abroad. We take a second break in places like the Lake District now.
Lower quality accommodation.
All inclusive/half-board : eating out abroad is expensive.

It's funny you mention Hull. My friend from Hertfordshire is planning a long weekend break in Hull because of the city of culture thing.

The Uni there is planning to rent out student accommodation when the property is vacant too.

Are you not tempted?

always_sunny

kabayiri wrote: »

Shorter holidays
Fewer holidays abroad. We take a second break in places like the Lake District now.
Lower quality accommodation.
All inclusive/half-board : eating out abroad is expensive.

It's funny you mention Hull. My friend from Hertfordshire is planning a long weekend break in Hull because of the city of culture thing.

The Uni there is planning to rent out student accommodation when the property is vacant too.

Are you not tempted?

I honestly cannot say that I am tempted.
By the time I drive up to Hull I could drive to Paris, train from London is almost 3 hours and pretty much the same cost of an EasyJet/Ryanair flight somewhere warmer.

Unfortunately that is one of the problem holidaying in the UK is that often it's expensive to reach locations and to stay so going abroad is often cheaper.
People taking shorter breaks, lower quality accommodation, etc are not a sign of 'doing better'.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

always_sunny wrote: »

What other option? With a weak currency the best option would be domestic travel but unfortunately the choice within the UK is limited.

I know folks are going to list the million and one locations in the UK, but reality is a week in Margate ain't going to cut it.
It is pretty factual that beside London, the rest of the UK does not attract much tourism.
I wonder how many are going to Hull given that it's the City of Culture 2017!

Oh another "cup-half-empty" remainer, eh?

Okay, FYI since you insist upon blinkered negativity I will inform you that the variety of holiday available inside the UK is huge, which BTW is why so many from outside the UK visit.
9.2 million of them in three months up to December 2016, according to the ONS.
Oh and before you even think about "I bet less from the EU..." try this:

Visits from residents of EU countries increased by 8%

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourism/dec2016

Now of course choice is more limited in our own country than that of a whole planet but we have a wide variety, look at the next link for an idea of spend and where.
My apologies for not hunting for newer data to educate you but CBA to be honest.
http://www.tourismalliance.com/downloads/TA_390_415.pdf

As for your "week in Margate"

---

why won't it cut it?
Do you think that a foreign holiday is somehow a right?
It isn't.

Hull -

A "staggering" 342,000 people came to Hull to see its first week of City of Culture 2017 events, organisers said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-38552999
A cup of decent coffee in Hull is far cheaper than in Paris - and you don't even need to speak French .

So forgive my scepticism at your post but IMHO you are only showing just how narrow-minded a POV you possess.

mayonnaise

I'd rather spend a weekend in our utility room than a weekend in Hull.

Sapphire

setmefree2 wrote: »

I prefer Cava myself *hic*

I haven't sampled Cava myself – but Prosecco has come along in leaps and bounds since it became popular, with many new varieties coming along.

I think it will be great if we can manage to have a profitable wine industry (I'd certainly buy British wines if they were a little less expensive). However, I doubt if there are any regions in Britain that have the microclimates of Bordeaux or Burgundy, or the conditions to produce the noble rot grape responsible for the likes of – I have to say it – divine Yquem. Hungary has started to popularise the legendary Tokay a bit (I even bought some in Waitrose recently), which was renowned in the 19th century and equalled the great Sauternes, though it is somewhat different in flavour and appearance…

Speaking of which, time for a drink…:dance:

always_sunny

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Oh another "cup-half-empty" remainer, eh?

Okay, FYI since you insist upon blinkered negativity I will inform you that the variety of holiday available inside the UK is huge, which BTW is why so many from outside the UK visit.
9.2 million of them in three months up to December 2016, according to the ONS.
Oh and before you even think about "I bet less from the EU..." try this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourism/dec2016

Now of course choice is more limited in our own country than that of a whole planet but we have a wide variety, look at the next link for an idea of spend and where.
My apologies for not hunting for newer data to educate you but CBA to be honest.
http://www.tourismalliance.com/downloads/TA_390_415.pdf

As for your "week in Margate"

---

why won't it cut it?
Do you think that a foreign holiday is somehow a right?
It isn't.

Hull - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-38552999
A cup of decent coffee in Hull is far cheaper than in Paris - and you don't even need to speak French .

So forgive my scepticism at your post but IMHO you are only showing just how narrow-minded a POV you possess.

Actually nothing to do with cup-half-empty" remainer; I am an EU national and therefore I am neither. Your post is just defensive, so a similar skepticism about your narrow-minded POV. Even based on your link by ONS

"Overseas residents made 9.2 million visits to the UK in the 3 months to December 2016. This was 6% higher than the same 3 months in 2015. The amount spent on these visits was unchanged at £5.3 billion."

Then also says:

"UK residents made 14.6 million visits abroad in the 3 months to December 2016, an increase of 8% compared with the same period in 2015. "

You can see that UK residents go abroad in bigger numbers than Overseas residents come here. Why?
And similarly that Travel Alliance research shows that London attracts the biggest crowds, this fairly known as a fact even pre-Brexit (Brexit in this regard of the argument is irrelevant, perhaps a weaker £ attracts tourist from abroad, that's about it).

The fact that to date, locations in the UK beside London are not a top destination is a reality.
Tourism/Hospitality bodies are concerned about the impact of curbing migration may have on the industry given the shortages for a long time.

I understand you may think that 'Brexit' will fix everything and it's happening so there is no much point talking about anything but after 'Brexit' things won't magically be resolved.

gfplux

Sapphire wrote: »

I haven't sampled Cava myself – but Prosecco has come along in leaps and bounds since it became popular, with many new varieties coming along.

I think it will be great if we can manage to have a profitable wine industry (I'd certainly buy British wines if they were a little less expensive). However, I doubt if there are any regions in Britain that have the microclimates of Bordeaux or Burgundy, or the conditions to produce the noble rot grape responsible for the likes of – I have to say it – divine Yquem. Hungary has started to popularise the legendary Tokay a bit (I even bought some in Waitrose recently), which was renowned in the 19th century and equalled the great Sauternes, though it is somewhat different in flavour and appearance…

Speaking of which, time for a drink…:dance:

Perhaps once Britain has cast of the shackles of the EU the Government could change some of the regulations, subsidies and taxes that are surely holding back the rapid expansion of the British wine industry.
I don't have personal experience but I am sure a chat with a British wine producer would create a whole list of things the British Government could do for all home grown Industries.
Do I think this will happen, frankly I don't know, but it should.

Does anyone have any inside information on the British wine Industry?

After writing the above I found this.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/mar/11/winemakers-urge-chancellor-to-do-his-duty-for-british-vintners

If you read the article it can be seen that the Chancelor could make a HUGE difference after Britain is out of the EU and could do something TODAY in a small way. Will this happen, if not why not.
Surely an opportunity that is being ignored here might be being repeated for other British industry's.