If we vote for Brexit what happens

orwen

nkomp18 wrote: »

It's 2017, I'm amazed there are still religions on earth. Haven't people woken up to the fact that there's on old man behind the clouds...

I don't know, but I've woken up to the fact that a lot of zealously secular people are actually quite puritanical in their references to a supernatural, male supreme being.

Can we get back on topic please? Is it economically in the interest of the United Kingdom to leave the EU?

Reasons for or against appreciated.

Thanks.

CKhalvashi

orwen wrote: »

Can we get back on topic please? Is it economically in the interest of the United Kingdom to leave the EU?

Reasons for or against appreciated.

Thanks.

Yes and no, largely depends on government policy in doing so.

If we're going to maintain full free access of goods and services via an EEA agreement, whilst leaving the Customs Union which would give us relative freedom to make our own trade deals, definitely.

If we're going to maintain access to the single market including compatible standards on a full free trade basis whilst having limited FoM for short periods (for professional services, installations to/from companies etc, works both ways, strict limits to be agreed although flexibility when necessary) and freedom to source both parts and services from other parts of the world, in exchange for the same in return, possibly, depends on many factors.

If we're going to isolate ourselves while serving only select markets that want to trade with us tarriff free and implementing WTO on others, including possibly the worlds richest market of 500 million people, unlikely.

The first is my preferred choice (although possibly the most unlikely) and the second is doable, however it depends how much you trust the current government to do it.

Aim for the second, if necessary go closer to the first and definitely avoid the third is my honest assessment of how the government should be looking at this, trying to take into account the needs of everyone and not just one side.

TrickyTree83

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Yes and no, largely depends on government policy in doing so.

If we're going to maintain full free access of goods and services via an EEA agreement, whilst leaving the Customs Union which would give us relative freedom to make our own trade deals, definitely.

If we're going to maintain access to the single market including compatible standards on a full free trade basis whilst having limited FoM for short periods (for professional services, installations to/from companies etc, works both ways, strict limits to be agreed although flexibility when necessary) and freedom to source both parts and services from other parts of the world, in exchange for the same in return, possibly, depends on many factors.

If we're going to isolate ourselves while serving only select markets that want to trade with us tarriff free and implementing WTO on others, including possibly the worlds richest market of 500 million people, unlikely.

The first is my preferred choice (although possibly the most unlikely) and the second is doable, however it depends how much you trust the current government to do it.

Aim for the second, if necessary go closer to the first and definitely avoid the third is my honest assessment of how the government should be looking at this, trying to take into account the needs of everyone and not just one side.

In bold, as a leave voter, is my absolute ideal scenario. I've outlined it before but thought it prudent just to remind some that the argument is not quite so polarised. Trade was my goal, if it means no SM membership and lesser access via a bilateral deal then so be it, but being free to negotiate deals with anyone else in the world for me was always the prize.

Conrad

This thing about the fake news MSM is a real thing. Just listening to Farages hour long interview with Le Pen on LBC, what a surprise. She's erudite, compassionate, passionate, thoughtful, pro freedom of religion and thought but anti fundamentalism, says to be French and Muslim is completely compitable, has good thoughts on the economy and the nation state, much to say about the Euro and how she will demand complete EU reform taking g it back to a simple trading club only, and with temporary protectionist measures only where a large French firm is on life support.

You would never get this level of illumination in a BBC interview of her.

I highly recommend listening, it's in its final quarter.

CKhalvashi

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

In bold, as a leave voter, is my absolute ideal scenario. I've outlined it before but thought it prudent just to remind some that the argument is not quite so polarised. Trade was my goal, if it means no SM membership and lesser access via a bilateral deal then so be it, but being free to negotiate deals with anyone else in the world for me was always the prize.

Is that even accepting the fact that it would be accepting full FoM?

I don't think that it's the most likely scenario as a result of the government interpretation on the vote, however if 1 in 25 Leave voters thought like you (which I consider a highly plausible option) then it could pave the way to keep the majority happy in leaving the EU.

I think, however, if public opinion pushes it with the condition that negotiations on something similar to the middle option go badly this is where we're going to aim closer to.

TrickyTree83

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Is that even accepting the fact that it would be accepting full FoM?

I don't think that it's the most likely scenario as a result of the government interpretation on the vote, however if 1 in 25 Leave voters thought like you (which I consider a highly plausible option) then it could pave the way to keep the majority happy in leaving the EU.

I think, however, if public opinion pushes it with the condition that negotiations on something similar to the middle option go badly this is where we're going to aim closer to.

Yes, if you were to search my posts prior to the referendum itself you'd see I'd gone on record as saying I have no particular problem with FoM. It's that Italian tomato growers can stop us from signing trade deals that are good for us that I dislike intensely. The protectionism is pretty rife on the continent, some think that protects industry but it just makes it lazy, inefficient and pushes prices up.

CKhalvashi

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Yes, if you were to search my posts prior to the referendum itself you'd see I'd gone on record as saying I have no particular problem with FoM. It's that Italian tomato growers can stop us from signing trade deals that are good for us that I dislike intensely. The protectionism is pretty rife on the continent, some think that protects industry but it just makes it lazy, inefficient and pushes prices up.

I had seen a few posts of that nature, couldn't remember if yours was one of them.

I think we want something very similar, just went in different ways about it, but I do completely agree with the points you make here.

larochelleuk

antrobus wrote: »

Scotland might have some work to do in reducing its budget deficit down to at least something approaching the EU 3% target before the EU lets it join in the first place.

Buzzfeed quotes a senior EU official saying EU membership is a "slam dunk."

mrginge

larochelleuk wrote: »

Buzzfeed quotes a senior EU official saying EU membership is a "slam dunk."

Oh well it's clearly all done and dusted then.

:doh:

TrickyTree83

larochelleuk wrote: »

Buzzfeed quotes a senior EU official saying EU membership is a "slam dunk."

In totality or from a particular aspect, I know what was said I'm just wondering if you do or if you've gobbled up some indy propaganda?