If we vote for Brexit what happens

bugslet

BobQ wrote: »

The National Farmers Union would find that unacceptable. Those CAP grants and a lot of cheap labour would be a blow of they lost it.

In the Times there was a letter published from a farmer following an article titled 'Farmers back the EU'. He pointed out that many didn't and rounded off by saying that 'one certainty had escaped their collective notice: being in the EU has done nothing to prevent the worst agricultural crisis in many decades enveloping UK agriculture'.

Generali wrote: »

To protect 'the project'.

If the UK leaves then there has to be a very real risk that Greece would follow pretty much straight after. Would you then bet against Spain and Italy going before the end of the decade?

I reckon the UK leaving is an existential risk to the EU and as such the EU will put self-preservation well ahead of the well-being of EU citizens. We've seen that the EU is prepared to put in place some pretty brutal rules in Greece. Preventing free trade with the UK would be chicken feed by comparison. Add to that the fact that the French and Germans have been desperate for years to smash The City and you have a potentially toxic mix.

Neither of us can say what will happen but there is a very real risk of this happening which I don't think can be blithely dismissed.

I think that is correct to some degree - and there's no way of knowing how far the EU would want to push it. If we vote in though, I think that likewise they will use that to erode whatever concessions we have currently or hope to have in the future. Either way, there's a downside.

CLAPTON wrote: »

just love the idea that you want to stay for the 'right' reason whilst people who want to leave are doing it for the 'wrong ' reasons


.

As I mentioned before, if you have seen your wages cut, or your market share reduced because of the EU, it's difficult to sell the EU project to those people. I'm not sure leaving the EU will automatically mean that wages are restored, in fact I doubt it, but try telling someone that, whose wages were cut from £11.00 to £7.50 because that's what you can get a Lithuanian truck driver for.

Generali

bugslet wrote: »

I think that is correct to some degree - and there's no way of knowing how far the EU would want to push it. If we vote in though, I think that likewise they will use that to erode whatever concessions we have currently or hope to have in the future. Either way, there's a downside.

Oh I agree there.

We can never know the future. What we can do is try to assess the risks and see where they really lie.

Nobody has made a claim that this referendum is a one-off and it is perfectly reasonable to say that any backtracking on the treaty to be would require or be met by another referendum. The UK is Sovereign and so can do what it likes.

The problem that Brexitiers face is that they have no clear view of the future, just a bunch of vague promises that it's okay, we can join the EEA or sign the same treaty that Canada did. Well actually there is no agreement that either of those things can happen and there is a perfectly reasonable chance that a vote for a Brexit will be met with a simple statement: "Don't let the door hit your Arsenal on the way out".

.string.

Generali wrote: »

...
TBH, it wouldn't surprise me if the EU's days are numbered anyway. The arguments that you hear on this thread are exactly the same that people say in bars and caf!s in France and probably across the rest of Europe with the possible exception of the small, poor countries that are recipients of the largesse of the German taxpayer via Bruxelles. The Project has moved ahead without taking the Europeans along with it and quite honestly I think the UK will be better off being around to shape what comes out of the rubble as if they are they can probably get pretty much the Europe most people want: a single market without all the crap from Brussels and Strasbourg.
..
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That's my view also. If the EU is going to break up then being inside at that moment, isolated to a large extent, thanks to the recent agreement negotiatedby Cameron, from the financial implications of the EURO zone, we would be be well placed to shape and join anyç new grouping which would emerge. Outside 'we would be seen as a major factor causing the breakup of the EU and not in any position at all to expect favours.

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

Very few politicians seem to have read Ricardo and pretty much none of the electorate. There simply aren't votes in free trade, quite the reverse in fact....

The interesting thing about Ricardian affects on trade is that they apply equally well to labour as to anything else. The efficiency gains that would accrue from having the global free movement of people are staggeringly large.

Here is a paper that reviews that reviews the state of play.

Large numbers of people born in poor countries would like to leave those countries, but barriers prevent their emigration. Those barriers, according to economists’ best estimates to date, cost the world economy much more than all remaining barriers to the international movement of goods and capital combined.

http://www.cgdev.org/files/1425376_file_Clemens_Economics_and_Emigration_FINAL.pdf

And when I say "staggering", I mean it. You are talking about gains in the range of 67% to 147% of world GDP.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

To protect 'the project'.

If the UK leaves then there has to be a very real risk that Greece would follow pretty much straight after. Would you then bet against Spain and Italy going before the end of the decade?

I reckon the UK leaving is an existential risk to the EU and as such the EU will put self-preservation well ahead of the well-being of EU citizens. We've seen that the EU is prepared to put in place some pretty brutal rules in Greece. Preventing free trade with the UK would be chicken feed by comparison. Add to that the fact that the French and Germans have been desperate for years to smash The City and you have a potentially toxic mix.

Neither of us can say what will happen but there is a very real risk of this happening which I don't think can be blithely dismissed.

I am told that the word on the street in Holland and Germany is that they are sick of the Brits complaining and would now rather we just left. They think that most of the repercussions will be felt by us and they are hoping their leaders will stick it to us in Brexit negotiations. The don't care if this hurts them too.

Of course rather like us with the Scots complaining, they don't get a vote.

It would be funny if the thing that unites the EU is a common dislike of England.

Sort of.

CLAPTON

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I am told that the word on the street in Holland and Germany is that they are sick of the Brits complaining and would now rather we just left. They think that most of the repercussions will be felt by us and they are hoping their leaders will stick it to us in Brexit negotiations. The don't care if this hurts them too.

Of course rather like us with the Scots complaining, they don't get a vote.

It would be funny if the thing that unites the EU is a common dislike of England.

Sort of.

Presumably the dislike of the Europeans in the bars will quickly show itself in the total cessation of their wish to come to the UK.
Presumably too those already here will start flocking back to the EU countries
House price collapse in London by Easter?
We will soon see.

CLAPTON

antrobus wrote: »

The interesting thing about Ricardian affects on trade is that they apply equally well to labour as to anything else. The efficiency gains that would accrue from having the global free movement of people are staggeringly large.

Here is a paper that reviews that reviews the state of play.

Large numbers of people born in poor countries would like to leave those countries, but barriers prevent their emigration. Those barriers, according to economists’ best estimates to date, cost the world economy much more than all remaining barriers to the international movement of goods and capital combined.

http://www.cgdev.org/files/1425376_file_Clemens_Economics_and_Emigration_FINAL.pdf

And when I say "staggering", I mean it. You are talking about gains in the range of 67% to 147% of world GDP.

I think that your figures are probably an underestimate and that free movement of people could achieve even better returns.
However I see some practical difficulties.

A. I believe such a huge change in the world today would cause world wide wars, probably with deaths in the 1000s of millions
B. this would lead to a collapse in world trade and massive reduction in world GDP


So for the moment I vote against any such experiment
Now, when there is world peace for a few decades, when religion is dead maybe we should start to experiment

gfplux

CLAPTON wrote: »

It is clear that all three main parties have been de facto pro EU and pro immigration for the last 20 years; the tories rhetoric is different of course, but their actions are pro immigration as evidenced by the high non-eu immigration.

I believe we should cut immigration to low 10,000s but I would agree that this is unlikely with the current generation of politicians.

in the future : who knows, when the next severe downturn comes sentiment may change and control of our own destiny will be useful to steer a different course.

We get the Politicians we deserve.
We get the Government when we DONT vote but we then can't complain (but do)
We get the Government when we DO vote but at least we can complain (but who listens?)

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

I believe we have more bargaining power than the remain camp cares to admit.

What has that got to do with anything.
we HAVE negotiated. The deal is what the deal is. We will not being back to the table for more. When you vote to Divorce the party being left will NOT renegotiate.

gfplux

mwpt wrote: »

Would you be willing to change your mind on this? I don't see it myself.

It is self obvious that the UK could forge a way for herself as a nation outside of the EU. And it's fairly obvious that she could choose a path as similar or as different to Norway, or Switzerland, or Australia, or Canada, or whoever, as she pleases with the varying levels of advantages or disadvantages. The argument trying to show we'd be worse off 'because Norway' doesn't hold water with me.

Having said that I actually have no idea if we would be worse or better off but I tend to believe worse off. We (*) have been very successful as part of the EU and as far as I'm concerned, why would you selfishly think that now that times are just a bit tough, we'll throw our partners the finger and !!!!!! off. I find it a little shameful.

On top of that, the more free movement of people, the more integrated, the more we move to be a global people, the better. Leaving the EU would be a backward step in all of these regards.

Finally, selfishly, I just flat out would not want to give up the ability to live, work, retire in any one of the 27 other beautiful countries we are part of in the union.

I understand why people may want to vote out but strongly disagree that they're doing it for the right reasons.

(*) As I've mentioned often, I'm not native here, but consider myself part of 'we' since this is now my home.

Nice piece of common sense. Thank you.
I can only add that leaving the EU could bring us closer to the USA of Donald J Trump. Frankly that in itself is a good reason to stay in.