If we vote for Brexit what happens

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

As the Norwegian experience tells us, a Brexit would simply mean the UK adopting EU rules as decided by the remaining 27 members.

What's the betting the EU would not react to a 'vote to leave' result?

I think they would. It strikes me as a reactive organisation.

Turkey has been pushing for admission into the EU club for years, yet it is only fairly recently that things have been happening.

It does look like the EU is reacting to external events.

Whether you are in the Remain or Leave camp, you will struggle to argue with the contention that this is one of the worst times for the EU to have to deal with a Brexit. It's not like they don't have a load of other pressing issues to deal with.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

the norwegian solution is totally inappropriate.

I am fully willing to go for the Australian solution and suffer the consequences whatever they may be : maybe it will tempt you to return home

Our sovereign government will retain control over non-EU immigration - to September 2015 that policy allowed 191,000 (net) migrants.

It's a racing certainty that post Brexit the UK will allow free movement of EU nationals as part of the exit negotiations - to September 2015 that was 172,000 (net) migrants.

Anyone voting to leave because they think it'll automatically reduce immigration is going to be very disappointed. Our status in/out is a minor factor as far as I can see.

You're getting the chance to start negotiations to leave and that's it - if the Norwegian model is inappropriate you might be less than happy.

mayonnaise

kabayiri wrote: »

Whether you are in the Remain or Leave camp, you will struggle to argue with the contention that this is one of the worst times for the EU to have to deal with a Brexit. It's not like they don't have a load of other pressing issues to deal with.

Definitely, a vote to leave would be a blow to the EU, not as major as the blow to the UK economy in case of a Brexit, but a blow nonetheless.
But I don't see why they can't deal with these 2 issues at the same time; the refugee issue and figuring out trade tariffs on EU-rUK trade.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

Our sovereign government will retain control over non-EU immigration - to September 2015 that policy allowed 191,000 (net) migrants.

It's a racing certainty that post Brexit the UK will allow free movement of EU nationals as part of the exit negotiations - to September 2015 that was 172,000 (net) migrants.

Anyone voting to leave because they think it'll automatically reduce immigration is going to be very disappointed. Our status in/out is a minor factor as far as I can see.

You're getting the chance to start negotiations to leave and that's it - if the Norwegian model is inappropriate you might be less than happy.

It is clear that all three main parties have been de facto pro EU and pro immigration for the last 20 years; the tories rhetoric is different of course, but their actions are pro immigration as evidenced by the high non-eu immigration.

I believe we should cut immigration to low 10,000s but I would agree that this is unlikely with the current generation of politicians.

in the future : who knows, when the next severe downturn comes sentiment may change and control of our own destiny will be useful to steer a different course.

Rinoa

Generali wrote: »

As the Norwegian experience tells us, a Brexit would simply mean the UK adopting EU rules as decided by the remaining 27 members.

Instead of looking at Norway's deal, we should look to the Canada deal recently negotiated. 92% of agricultural and 99% of non-agricultural tariffs will be removed.

But Canada won't be signing up to any EU rules and the deal doesn't rely on free movement of labour.

From your earlier link on Norway (Very interesting BTW) one pertinent quote stood out for me:

“When it comes to the size of economy, the population - Norway is a more peripheral player in the European context than the UK would be. Britain should be able to throw its weight around to a much greater degree.”

I believe we have more bargaining power than the remain camp cares to admit.

CLAPTON

so it appears the new break through deal between EU and Turkey, will be that Turkey citizens gain free movement of people with the schengen area.

how is that going to work?

kabayiri

mayonnaise wrote: »

Definitely, a vote to leave would be a blow to the EU, not as major as the blow to the UK economy in case of a Brexit, but a blow nonetheless.
But I don't see why they can't deal with these 2 issues at the same time; the refugee issue and figuring out trade tariffs on EU-rUK trade.

I think you can negotiate a good deal out of them.

Turkey is asking for twice the amount of aid for the refugee crisis that was offered just before Christmas! It will get it too.

It makes Camerons concession roadshow look pathetic and badly timed.

Rinoa

CLAPTON wrote: »

so it appears the new break through deal between EU and Turkey, will be that Turkey citizens gain free movement of people with the schengen area.

how is that going to work?

Dunno, but it just shows how pragmatic the EU can be.

Which augurs well for the UK after Brexit.

HornetSaver

Rinoa wrote: »

I believe we have more bargaining power than the remain camp cares to admit.

Hard to argue with that, and the Remain camp is undeniably guilty of scaremongering already. Though the portrayal of an easy journey from where we are to where we would like to be post-Brexit is what has the majority of those on the fence skeptical, and appears to me to be the main barrier to a Leave vote.

Contrary to perceived wisdom in British referenda, the British public are more intelligent than either side of a binary vote give them credit for. The tendency of British floating voters to go for the "safer" option is not in my opinion fear, or ignorance, but lack of information on what the more radical of the two options would mean in the short-to-medium term (i.e. the next decade or so). That is ultimately what sunk the Scottish referendum. It felt as though the majority of voters in their heart of hearts wanted independence, and judging by previous and subsequent election results you'd also have to say that the majority preferred the SNP's vision for the direction of the country's policies than those of the Westminster parties. But floating voters simply did not have enough credible information to judge how long the limbo years would last or what they would entail.

happylucky

CLAPTON wrote: »

so it appears the new break through deal between EU and Turkey, will be that Turkey citizens gain free movement of people with the schengen area.

how is that going to work?

Yes, this was announced at the end of last week in the Turkish press, but I think it's just been brought forward by a couple of months.

http://todayalanya.com/en/the-eu-visa-free-regime-for-turkey-will-come-into-force-in-the-autumn/

Since January, new regulations have also been (suddenly) introduced to align driving licence stuff to the EU/UK system.

It would therefore seem that these events were not direct consequences of the most recent discussions.