If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

Would you similarly expect decisions made by the UK to be able to be vetoed by Hertfordshire? What about decisions made by Herts, should St Albans or Hitchen be able to overrule them?

If not, why should the UK be uniquely placed to overrule the larger body? If so then we need to rethink the constitution in a pretty fundamental way because I don't think that you'll ever get Hitchen, Wood Green and Llanelli to agree on everything.

completely logical

which is why we need to leave the EU

BobQ

CLAPTON wrote: »

What job loses are these?

Well those would be the ones Marr asked BoJo who, amongst his other bumblings, refused to deny there would be job losses (there may be or may not was his reassurance)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b073gj26/the-andrew-marr-show-06032016

Many countries in the EU have very high unemployment rates which would probably be reduced if they had free trade, their own currency and democratic control over their own destiny.

"probably" - your confidence is noted.

You make it clear you have no regard for and place no value on democracy : that is your choice but many don't share that view.

I have a lot of regard for democracy, but do not believe that opting out of a free trade area we helped to create in order to try and negotiate 50 odd bilateral agreements that are unlikely to be better and could be worse.

Bo Jo believes in free trade with the EU but will not deny that that involves paying to maintain the regulatory frameworks. I do not believe him.

Anyway I don't mind being as poor as USA or Aus, NZ etc who seem to be able to manage their own affairs in a democratic manner.

[/QUOTE]The pound could crash by as much as 20% if Britain decides to leave the European Union, Goldman Sachs has warned.

Goldman (GS) is the latest in a growing array of big companies warning investors about the potential cost of a so-called 'Brexit.' The bank said leaving the EU would weigh on Britain's economic outlook and make investors wary of investing in the country.

"An abrupt and total interruption to incoming capital flows in response to a 'Brexit' could see the [pound] decline by as much as 15-20%," analysts at the bank said in a note to clients.

The pound has already weakened sharply since November when the issue of British membership in the EU came into focus, the bank said.

It has dropped nearly 6% against the dollar and 8% against the euro in the last 6 months. It's now worth about $1.46.
[/QUOTE]

http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/04/news/economy/uk-europe-brexit-pound-goldman-sachs/

BoJo seems to be incapable of separating the single market from the fantasy suspicions he harbours about a European Super State

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

Well those would be the ones Marr asked BoJo who, amongst his other bumblings, refused to deny there would be job losses (there may be or may not was his reassurance)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b073gj26/the-andrew-marr-show-06032016



"probably" - your confidence is noted.



I have a lot of regard for democracy, but do not believe that opting out of a free trade area we helped to create in order to try and negotiate 50 odd bilateral agreements that are unlikely to be better and could be worse.

Bo Jo believes in free trade with the EU but will not deny that that involves paying to maintain the regulatory frameworks. I do not believe him.

The pound could crash by as much as 20% if Britain decides to leave the European Union, Goldman Sachs has warned.

Goldman (GS) is the latest in a growing array of big companies warning investors about the potential cost of a so-called 'Brexit.' The bank said leaving the EU would weigh on Britain's economic outlook and make investors wary of investing in the country.

"An abrupt and total interruption to incoming capital flows in response to a 'Brexit' could see the [pound] decline by as much as 15-20%," analysts at the bank said in a note to clients.

The pound has already weakened sharply since November when the issue of British membership in the EU came into focus, the bank said.

It has dropped nearly 6% against the dollar and 8% against the euro in the last 6 months. It's now worth about $1.46.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/04/news/economy/uk-europe-brexit-pound-goldman-sachs/

BoJo seems to be incapable of separating the single market from the fantasy suspicions he harbours about a European Super State

yes but which job loses ?

and I often use the words like 'probably' then dealing with the future like many realistic people.

I am aware many people support 'stay' just as there were many people who supported 'must join the euro'.
By all mean tell me which job loses but its pointless just to give me a list of people who wanted to join the euro.

I've already explained in some detail about how I see the job situation after brexit.

we will have to see how the pound's value changes : but a lower value may be just what is needed to help correct the trade imbalance.

Tell me : if the pound goes back up before the referendum will you accept that as the markets judgement and vote brexit?

michaels

BobQ wrote: »

.....

Responding to a comment about how The US, Aus and NZ can cope without being part of the EU with something on a totally different topic (currency speculation) - you are a SPAD and I claim my £10....

BobQ

kabayiri wrote: »

There are 2,500 job losses just announced from Npower. They can't blame that on a Brexit can they?

Tens of thousands of UK jobs have gone in IT and contact centres to places like India; Malta; and the new kid on the block - South Africa. All while we are in this thing called the EU club.

Tell me what the EU can do about this trend? What will the EU be able to do about the next wave of automation which is a decade away at max?

You can pretend that the EU protects the average person's job if you like, but it doesn't hold up.

I have never said that the EU stops employers from basing jobs abroad and neither can it. What could Britain along do about this problem outside of the EU?

The EU does provide a reasonable employment law framework for the 28 nations. When those advocating Brexit speak of removing bureaucracy this is an area where they contemplate reducing regulation (although they do use other words like "freeing the UK from the constrains of over regulation"

http://www.cipd.co.uk/pm/peoplemanagement/b/weblog/archive/2015/06/01/how-a-brexit-from-the-eu-could-change-employment-law.aspx

BobQ

michaels wrote: »

Except that we are not in a situation where the number of jobs and the population are flat, both are increasing. Are you certain that with Brexit any reduction in job creation might not be offset by the reduction in new arrivals?


And even if there were increased unemployment, perhaps others would disagree with you over whether that might be a price worth paying for restoring democratic control?

Have a look at the Marr programme on the BBC I Player and judge for yourself. It was not convincing and at times evasive in my view.

BobQ

michaels wrote: »

And should the EU bring in laws that the majority of the British people did not support (for example continuing to run a budget that the auditors refuse to sign off due to corruption, insisting on agricultural tariffs to protect French farmers that add 15% to the average UK food bill) but that the majority of the EU did, would my vote in any of those EU elections make the slightest difference?

Fair point but if you are a Lib Dem supporter in Witley or a Conservative in most of Scotland the same is true.

I am not sure about the rights and wrongs of the EU auditing process but I do know that the populist press often generate stories of corruption when there are none.

The press has repeatedly reported claims of massive benefits fraud in the UK too, sometimes fanned by politicians when it suits them, but when you read the ONS data much of what is called fraud are administrative mistakes by officials in making the payments.

For what it is worth, the EU claims the same thing as the ONS

http://ec.europa.eu/budget/explained/myths/myths_en.cfm

The European Court of Auditors gave a clean bill of health on our 2013 accounting books, for the seventh time in a row. This means every euro spent from the EU budget was duly recorded in the books and accounted for.

It is worth noting that the errors in EU spending are usually administrative mistakes, which are not fraud. According to Commission´s estimations only 0.2% of annual spending may be affected by fraud.

BobQ

CLAPTON wrote: »

yes but which job loses ?

I have answered this.

.

By all mean tell me which job loses but its pointless just to give me a list of people who wanted to join the euro.

I have not given you such a list so it is pointless to say I have

Tell me : if the pound goes back up before the referendum will you accept that as the markets judgement and vote brexit?

No, but I concede if the pound recovers while the polls show leave to be significantly ahead I will be reassured the result is not as damaging as I fear.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

.


I have not given you such a list so it is pointless to say I have



No, but I concede if the pound recovers while the polls show leave to be significantly ahead I will be reassured the result is not as damaging as I fear.

so a falling pound is proof that we should stay
a rising pound is proof we should stay
a constant pound is proof we should stay

makes debate a little pointless

Rinoa

Well, at least Boris was being realistic and honest. More than can be said for 'project fear' on the remain side.

Things will change, that's obvious. There may be short term losers (and also short term winners). But almost certainly we'll need to accept a little short term pain for longer term gains.

On the subject of jobs. Looking around Europe it's clear being in the EU is no guarantee of either prosperity nor high employment. The poorest European countries are all in the EU. 2 of the most prosperous got their 'Brexit' in early by not joining.