If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Not at all. You seem to quite like asking Remainers to explain something they've never said.

As I'm sick of pointing out; if we don't get a good trade deal, then everybody hurts. But we will hurt more than the EU as a whole because we lose the bigger current market and the bigger potential market. Spain can start selling what we're no longer buying, to the other EU26. We don't have the same luxury as whatever is going to cause Spain to stop buying our stuff will probably also stop the other EU26 buying our stuff.

Everyone needs a good trade deal, but everyone else will get over a bad trade deal more easily that we will. Is there anything in that you don't understand or agree with?

so you believe that Spain can easily sell more to the other EU26 if UK doesn't buy from them?

So why aren't they selling more today : is it they

a. are too rich and can't be bothered?
b. huge shortages of labour stops them ?
c. something else?

posh*spice

Herzlos wrote: »

She's got a working majority of 16, so she'd only need 9 Tory MPs to flip, surely? (assuming everyone else votes against her). If there's something you can rely a Tory MP doing, it's following the money. Where is the money?

There are at least 10 Labour MPs who campaigned for Brexit

setmefree2

Conrad wrote: »

I cant see more than a dozen Tories going against May, I would wager a handful at most.


The danger of a GE is some sort or Progressive alliance with someone capable in charge.

I've read 30 to 40 but I'm guessing nobody really knows.

Filo25

cogito wrote: »

The Fixed Term Parliament Act means no election until 2020, doesn't it?

It can be repealed by a simple majority, so not quite as binding as it appears

cogito

posh*spice wrote: »

There can be a vote of no confidence in government and then a genersl election is triggered.

Yes, in theory but that would require a number of Tories to vote for it and why would they? I'm not even sure that it's as simple as that under the FTPA. Last time a government was defeated in a no confidence vote was the minority Labour government in 1979 after the Liberals withdrew their support.

You could have the bizarre situation where the government brought a no confidence vote against itself to force a general election but Labour vote against it because it didn't fancy its chances of increasing its seats at Westminster.

Filo25

posh*spice wrote: »

There are at least 10 Labour MPs who campaigned for Brexit

And a leader who, judging by his history before assuming the leadership, also wanted Brexit

cogito

Filo25 wrote: »

It can be repealed by a simple majority, so not quite as binding as it appears

Wrong. It needs two thirds of MPs to vote to repeal it.

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

It can be repealed by a simple majority, so not quite as binding as it appears

I believe that an election can only be called early if
-2 thirds vote in favour
or
-a vote of no confidence in the government

Filo25

cogito wrote: »

Wrong. It needs two thirds of MPs to vote to repeal it.

Under the terms of the FTPA it requires a 2/3rds majority to bring down the government, but my understanding is that the easiest way around that would be to repeal the law itself for which a simple majority would suffice

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

so you believe that Spain can easily sell more to the other EU26 if UK doesn't buy from them?

No, and that's not what I said. I said Spain would have an easier time finding new customers from within the EU, than we would from without.