If we vote for Brexit what happens

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

Finally some real news. Next week May will be laying out Britains negotiating position for leaving the EU.
If the Sunday papers are anything to go by the speech is being heavily leaked and lots of talk of a hard Brexit. However I am waiting for the speech. Finally some action. She might even clarify the date at the end of March when she will pull the trigger.
I hate those rumours of a possible delay.

Remainiac 'control freakery' writ large.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You'd blame the EU for an asteroid hitting Earth or a storm hitting Grimsby.

Not quite Hamish, but it's clear a lot of the stuff you say is stated in such a way that you have to spend the next couple of pages dancing around your own words trying desperately to find a position with absolves the EU of anything and everything while avoiding the truth via a play on words (and a play that isn't even that clever, as everyone sees through it) all while having to pretend you are right about everything.

It's abundantly clear that Twinings had a €15m grant to help relocate from the UK.

It's not so clear regarding Cadbury, but you only have to look on Wikipedia to note that it's not clear because it was designed to take part in stages. COmpany takeovers with conditions imposed that Kraft will locate certain companies in certain places. Without agrreing to this, Kraft would have seen the EU denying them authority to do what they wanted to do.

Cadbury itself never got money, but Kraft did and it all amounts to the same thing once you have waded through the mire of smoke and mirrors.

This insistence of hiding behind smoke and mirrors, which you are clearly doing hence having to agree with people who are disagreeing with your own words, doesn't help promote the EU at all.

mrginge

davomcdave wrote: »

In other words hard Brexit and then decide what to do next.

Erm well yes that's kind of the point.

Soft Brexit is a fantasy peddled to those suffering buyers' remorse. It's not on the table for negotiation as it can't be.

Soft brexit is a term relating specifically to 'deciding what to do next'. So clearly it is on the table. Whether we end up there depends on the views of each of the 28.

davomcdave

mrginge wrote: »

Erm well yes that's kind of the point.



Soft brexit is a term relating specifically to 'deciding what to do next'. So clearly it is on the table. Whether we end up there depends on the views of each of the 28.

I think we don't actually disagree, we're just using different words for the same thing. I am using Brexit to mean the process of putting through A50 whereas I think you are using Brexit to mean the whole of the process of Britain leaving the EU and ending at a point of having some sort of governance over what EU-ex Britain and Britain looks like re things like trade, migration and so on.

If I understand you then my hard Brexit can be your soft Brexit at the same time, they are not mutually exclusive.

CLAPTON

davomcdave wrote: »

If I understand you then my hard Brexit can be your soft Brexit at the same time, they are not mutually exclusive.

presumably quote from the ministry of truth

mrginge

davomcdave wrote: »

I think we don't actually disagree.

We don't.

I've said all through this that the govt should prepare on the basis of a hard Brexit and negotiate up from there.

Making a commitment to stay in the SM - like some want, is a fool's tactic. It hampers your ability to get anything that you actually want.

Over the last six months I've become more positive that we can prosper outside the SM. The upsides and opportunities can outweigh the downsides, so we should be negotiating with the EU on that basis.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

An interesting piece in Die Welt today featuring Philip Hammond.
Asked about so-called "cherry picking" the response is:

We aim for a new arrangement on a reciprocal basis. I think Mercedes-Benz, and BMW and Volkswagen would also like to sell their cars in the U.K. market without paying tariffs. I don’t call that cherry-picking. Is it cherry-picking when South Korea does a trade deal with the European Union, is it cherry-picking when Canada does a trade deal with the European Union? We should be able to reach an arrangement to allow, on a reciprocal basis, access to each other’s markets without the political integration that membership of the EU has come to imply.

Further on in the interview:

Welt am Sonntag: At least in Germany, many people still hope that the Brits might come to their senses and in the end decide not to leave the EU.

Hammond: This is not going to happen. Those of us, like me, who campaigned to remain in the EU and to try to reform it from the inside, have moved on. To be very honest, since the referendum we have seen on the European side movement away from the UK positions, suggesting that the underlying driver on the European side is still for more political integration, for a defence component to the European Union, the things that are anathema to the UK. So the vast majority of people, like me, who campaigned to remain have now refocused on campaigning to get the right kind of Brexit and the right kind of future arrangement, so we remain close to the EU, working closely with the EU, but being outside of the construct of the EU.

https://www.welt.de/english-news/article161182946/Philip-Hammond-issues-threat-to-EU-partners.html

The_Last_Username

An interesting read, that Die Welt interview.
Makes me wonder if Philip Hammond reads some of these forums.


I do like the reference to the possibility of the UK becoming a tax haven.
Who says the UK has no bargaining power?

CKhalvashi

mrginge wrote: »

Soft brexit is a term relating specifically to 'deciding what to do next'. So clearly it is on the table. Whether we end up there depends on the views of each of the 28.

This is the point I've been making too.

It's currently in the UK's interests (IMO) to remain in the common market at the moment, as it is where the majority of trade goes with favourable-ish trade deals to some other parts of the world.

It may or not be the case in the long term, at which time the situation should be reviewed. We ideally need to play around with non-EU exports and see what's best rather than jumping in at the deep end, as it's far too risky on the next generation, and they shouldn't be the ones paying for our mistakes, they should be the ones reaping the rewards of our sensible choices.

I'm not rejecting the UK leaving the SM outright, I am saying that it's not a good idea to go rushing into it when there's no guaranteed FTA with the EU. My views on the EASA Single Aviation Market and other bits have been made perfectly clear already, and it's in everyones interests to remain in this and accept the relevant rules to avoid significently harming BA and Easyjet and to improve competition with EU carriers on international (but not necessarily domestic) routes.

CLAPTON

CKhalvashi wrote: »

This is the point I've been making too.

It's currently in the UK's interests (IMO) to remain in the common market at the moment, as it is where the majority of trade goes with favourable-ish trade deals to some other parts of the world.

It may or not be the case in the long term, at which time the situation should be reviewed. We ideally need to play around with non-EU exports and see what's best rather than jumping in at the deep end, as it's far too risky on the next generation, and they shouldn't be the ones paying for our mistakes, they should be the ones reaping the rewards of our sensible choices.

I'm not rejecting the UK leaving the SM outright, I am saying that it's not a good idea to go rushing into it when there's no guaranteed FTA with the EU. My views on the EASA Single Aviation Market and other bits have been made perfectly clear already, and it's in everyones interests to remain in this and accept the relevant rules to avoid significently harming BA and Easyjet and to improve competition with EU carriers on international (but not necessarily domestic) routes.

basically you are arguing to stay in the EU with maybe a few noble platitudes to 'satisfy' the democratic vote to leave.