If we vote for Brexit what happens

mrginge

Interesting shifts in position.

1. Leaving the EU will be a disaster
To
2. Leaving the SM will be a disaster
To
3. Leaving the SM without a transitional deal will be a disaster.

Perhaps 3 is the actual consensus position we stay at, perhaps further evidence and analysis pushes us further towards the hard brexit position.
I guess we'll only see that when the real negotiations start.

CLAPTON

CKhalvashi wrote: »

No Clapton, I'm making a case for why I feel best to remain in the common market, not necessarily permanently, but for now.

I have no problem with the issue being kept under constant review, and am open to changing my mind when the time is right, and the benefits clearly outweigh the risks.

I'm sorry, but I dont think this is the right time, for reasons already mentioned. I'll go over these again if you wish.

I fully accept that you want to stay in the EU.

I simply suggesting you are totally upfront and say all your argument simply mean STAY.

There is no realist way of keeping things under 'constant review' and you know it. It is simply a way of 'remain' but pretending to be open to alternatives.

CKhalvashi

leveller2911 wrote: »

The EU has needed major reforming for decades so Why did the EU expand Eastwards in 2004 and with every new accession country that joins making reform harder to achieve?.

They are still expanding East with Kosovo,Serbia etc in the pipeline to join.

The common sense approach would be to reform before allowing further countries to join but the EU doesn't do common sense.The problem the EU has is political dogma is seen as being more important than substance and making the lives of its citizens better.

Ask your average German how they feel about the EU after already having to sacrifice much when reunification took priority over their own priorities and then paying towards the EU's Grand Plan for an Eastern Empire.

Serbia could actually be a very good candiate, and in the UKs interest to work with closely Brexit or no Brexit.

Serbia also has a very decent manufacturing base, some of which is government owned and due to be privatised, and EU memberhip would probably see the country become a net contributor very quickly. I can see some of the industry becoming British owned in the not too distant future. The reputation of a lot of these companies is very good.

Kosovo, no idea, Turkey (which I do note you didn't mention) I can't see joining in the next 30 years.

CKhalvashi

CLAPTON wrote: »

I fully accept that you want to stay in the EU.

I simply suggesting you are totally upfront and say all your argument simply mean STAY.

There is no realist way of keeping things under 'constant review' and you know it. It is simply a way of 'remain' but pretending to be open to alternatives.

Remaining in the EU is my preferred option, there's no doubting that, I've never hidden it, and I've never denied the reasons why.

I am, however, open to exploring all avenues, however I think that clear boundaries need to be set for leaving the single market, and once those boundaries are met it should be seriously debated by elected representatives, who will then be charged with putting those plans into action.

As I've said, this is as close to common ground as you're going to get, and one that I genuinely feel is in everyones interests, but I don't feel we're at the stage yet where it should be considered a definite, however I do feel it should be laid out, with clear boundaries for future negotiation.

leveller2911

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Serbia could actually be a very good candiate, and in the UKs interest to work with closely Brexit or no Brexit.

Serbia also has a very decent manufacturing base, some of which is government owned and due to be privatised, and EU memberhip would probably see the country become a net contributor very quickly. I can see some of the industry becoming British owned in the not too distant future. The reputation of a lot of these companies is very good.

Kosovo, no idea, Turkey (which I do note you didn't mention) I can't see joining in the next 30 years.

My knowledge of Sebia is very limited so thanks for the post and I will have a look.

My main point, which you may have missed was that in life if I, my business, country,EU etc has fundamental problems and needs to reform then the way to reform is to do so before allowing more countries to join. By allowing even more countries to join before reforming the EU model makes reform harder to achieve.

Believe it or not pre 2004 I was more pro EU than Anti but for me the EU has never embraced reform or adopted a common sense approach. If there had been less EU dogma and more care about the lives/living standards of the EU citizens then I would have voted Remain..

gfplux

After ALL the comments about Luxembourg, Ireland etc tax havens on this thread we have this....
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-chancellor-philip-hammond-welt-am-sonntag-uk-tax-haven-europe-a7527961.html

I assume we all expected this. There might now be a race to the bottom.

CKhalvashi

leveller2911 wrote: »

My knowledge of Sebia is very limited so thanks for the post and I will have a look.

My main point, which you may have missed was that in life if I, my business, country,EU etc has fundamental problems and needs to reform then the way to reform is to do so before allowing more countries to join. By allowing even more countries to join before reforming the EU model makes reform harder to achieve.

Believe it or not pre 2004 I was more pro EU than Anti but for me the EU has never embraced reform or adopted a common sense approach. If there had been less EU dogma and more care about the lives/living standards of the EU citizens then I would have voted Remain..

I did get the point, I was just counter-pointing back at you

There were about 1000 loss-making smaller government owned companies still to be sold.

Whilst on the face of it that doesn't sound good, you have an established workforce and the ability to expand a UK-based operation to Serbia, where wages are a lot lower than the UK. That in turn, in theory should bring exports up (if using it as a European base post Brexit, or even just as a separate manufacturing hub), which will put Serbia in a good position to become a net contributor.

As far as I'm aware, no other country has this sort of opportunity, which for even a €100k investor could see big returns both in Serbia and the UK. In the right hands, it's a very good idea, and should be well executed, will drive up local wages and help the local economy.

I am in no way suggesting that UK-based jobs (or any jobs in the investor country if not the UK) should go to make way for this, and I'd even go as far (if I were the Serbian government) to ensure that this didn't happen, as it's just not moral. Remember, if UK-owned, the profits will flow back to the UK once the additional expenses (higher wages due to low unemployment etc) have been taken into account.

The pharmaceutical plant in Pancevo should be a good target for GSK (but will be a lot more than the figures above), highlighting the corporate investment potential too in the long term. Same proviso applies re jobs.

kabayiri

CKhalvashi wrote: »

...
There were about 1000 loss-making smaller government owned companies still to be sold.

Whilst on the face of it that doesn't sound good, you have an established workforce and the ability to expand a UK-based operation to Serbia, where wages are a lot lower than the UK. That in turn, in theory should bring exports up (if using it as a European base post Brexit, or even just as a separate manufacturing hub), which will put Serbia in a good position to become a net contributor.
..

Why on earth do we need Serbia?

Look, the world is awash with cheap labour right now. As automation becomes more prevalent that situation is only going to increase.

What can we get from Serbia that we can not get from India; China; Korea; Malaysia; Brazil; Taiwan; list goes on. All these places offer cheaper labour.

Turkey actually makes more sense, in that it is already a sweat shop for many UK companies. It's just a shame they sit in a politically unstable part of the world with significant religious and cultural issues.

CLAPTON

kabayiri wrote: »

Why on earth do we need Serbia?

Look, the world is awash with cheap labour right now. As automation becomes more prevalent that situation is only going to increase.

What can we get from Serbia that we can not get from India; China; Korea; Malaysia; Brazil; Taiwan; list goes on. All these places offer cheaper labour.

Turkey actually makes more sense, in that it is already a sweat shop for many UK companies. It's just a shame they sit in a politically unstable part of the world with significant religious and cultural issues.

maybe because it is mainly white, mainly christian and mainly european

CKhalvashi

kabayiri wrote: »

Why on earth do we need Serbia?

Look, the world is awash with cheap labour right now. As automation becomes more prevalent that situation is only going to increase.

What can we get from Serbia that we can not get from India; China; Korea; Malaysia; Brazil; Taiwan; list goes on. All these places offer cheaper labour.

Turkey actually makes more sense, in that it is already a sweat shop for many UK companies. It's just a shame they sit in a politically unstable part of the world with significant religious and cultural issues.

It's not just the labour aspect I'm looking at here.

The companies in question could serve as a very quick and cheap-ish option for expansion if a British manufacturer was to be in need of a turnkey operaton.

Also, you're not just buying the labour, you're buying expertise, equipment and presumably some contracts, with the ability to move goods quickly into the largest single trading market in the world by road (and the possibility for the product to be on the shelves in Germany, Austria etc within 24 hours of product completion); prime target for turnaround IMO.

When taken as a package, I think that's a very good idea.