If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Has the EU said that once the UK leaves the EU that the rights of UK ex-pats will be honoured?

They can't, because they have no idea what terms the UK will impose. EU based ex-pats will be honoured unless the UK makes that not happen. The UK is the one which explicitly referred to them as bargaining chips, the EU didn't.

Unless May does something spectacularly stupid, EU based ex-pats will be fine, because the EU isn't going to screw them over out of spite. But the EU can't make any promises about what the UK will insist on.

mayonnaise

vivatifosi wrote: »

Who do you think will be running the country if we have a general election asap? It would be Theresa May, exactly as it is now. Labour and the Lib Dems won't make much of an impact and she will grow her majority.

I can see the libdems making decent gains in areas where intelligent remain voters form a majority - as the Richmond and Witney by-elections have shown.

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Do you have inside information that none of us are aware of?

Well the UK are 'frustrated' that negotiations haven't started and the EU say they can't start until A50 is triggered. Potentially they're lying but it seems a reasonable assumption discussions haven't started?

I do sometimes wonder if back door pre-negotiations may have already started but then Hammond pops up and says the government haven't yet determined their approach to the single market i.e. the basics.

If it's true that 6 months after the referendum they haven't a finalised approach to the single market their competence must be questionable. No wonder every time May talks Sterling falls.

It's about time the government stopped using our lives to play politics. There was a referendum and they promised to trigger article 50 in short order - it's time they did so.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

They can't, because they have no idea what terms the UK will impose. EU based ex-pats will be honoured unless the UK makes that not happen. The UK is the one which explicitly referred to them as bargaining chips, the EU didn't.

Unless May does something spectacularly stupid, EU based ex-pats will be fine, because the EU isn't going to screw them over out of spite. But the EU can't make any promises about what the UK will insist on.

The right to reside in the UK can only be granted by the UK government. The right to reside in the EU can only be granted by the EU member states as a whole. Before the UK is outside of the EU those states will need to make a decision. No such decision has been taken so they've not guaranteed anything. The politicians who have gone furthest to say that they will so far is the UK government.

It's all there to read.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/29/donald-tusk-turns-on-tories-in-row-over-rights-of-eu-citizens-in-uk

wotsthat

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

More and more it looks like the so-called cliff edge that some on here suggest the UK is jumping off by choosing Brexit is in fact only a stepping stone across a stream, with green fields of opportunity on the other side.

If anyone said that the UK would fall off a cliff on June 24th by voting for Brexit they were wrong. On the contrary the UK, whilst inside the EU, appears to have out performed their European and third country peers by a good margin over the last few years.

Although the stepping stone across a babbling brook leading to the green fields of opportunity sounds like a motivational poster it remains to be seen whether this will be the case. I hope the standards of evidence to be applied are more rigorous than pointing to the rising sun every day as proof.

vivatifosi

mayonnaise wrote: »

I can see the libdems making decent gains in areas where intelligent remain voters form a majority - as the Richmond and Witney by-elections have shown.

I agree, but I don't think they will win anywhere near enough. Labour has fallen off a cliff and there is no effective opposition. While the libdems could see a bounce back in some areas, there are not enough of them. The most likely scenario is that you end up with a more split minority between the LDs and Lab.

Look at where Labour was strong in the past... they won't win back Scotland. That's a huge loss in seat numbers. They will also lose votes (if not necessarily seats) in pro-Brexit areas to UKIP. Lib Dem could come back from their terrible thrashing in the last election. However, whatever way it is sliced, I can't see the possibility of anything other than a Tory win at the moment.

wotsthat

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The right to reside in the UK can only be granted by the UK government. The right to reside in the EU can only be granted by the EU member states as a whole. Before the UK is outside of the EU those states will need to make a decision. No such decision has been taken so they've not guaranteed anything. The politicians who have gone furthest to say that they will so far is the UK government.

The status of UK and EU citizens was always going to be part of the exit negotiations. The government by now should've triggered article 50 and discussions should be taking place.

The UK are doing what many accuse the EU of doing and that's playing politics. The only reason the UK have done/ said more on the subject is to try and repair the political damage caused by overtly referring to people as bargaining chips. That's quite a difficult position from which the government can claim the moral high ground.

davomcdave

vivatifosi wrote: »

I agree, but I don't think they will win anywhere near enough. Labour has fallen off a cliff and there is no effective opposition. While the libdems could see a bounce back in some areas, there are not enough of them. The most likely scenario is that you end up with a more split minority between the LDs and Lab.

Look at where Labour was strong in the past... they won't win back Scotland. That's a huge loss in seat numbers. They will also lose votes (if not necessarily seats) in pro-Brexit areas to UKIP. Lib Dem could come back from their terrible thrashing in the last election. However, whatever way it is sliced, I can't see the possibility of anything other than a Tory win at the moment.

I'm not an expert but this is the internet so I won't let it stop me.

As I understand how things work there is a bunch of money that goes from our taxes to the Opposition so for Labour there is a tipping point if they keep losing votes. It's possible that they lose Scotland to the SNP, Wales to Plaid Cmwyllwyllwww(sp?), parts of Northern England to UKIP and parts of southern England to the Lib Dems. It's quite possible that the SNP or UKIP or the Lib Dems could end up in second place in that scenario.

If the Fabians are right and Labour ends up on 20% then there's 10% or so of votes to be redistributed among other parties. 20% of the electorate didn't give the Lib Dems many seats back in the 80s. Perhaps the 20% of Labour voters ends up split across a lot of seats or worse concentrated into a very small number of seats.

The riptide of history seems to be running against the Left at the moment and it really is very hard to see them as anything except shark bait in the near future.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

I see today that Le Pen is "upping the ante" and trying trump-like tactics:

France’s far-right presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen has promised to force the country’s carmakers to move production plants back home, Reuters reported today.
“I don’t mind explaining to French companies that they cannot escape tax that they should be paying in France, that they cannot go offshore without suffering the consequences,” Le Pen said in a television interview. “A choice has to be made, a choice of patriotism.”

http://www.politico.eu/article/le-pen-follows-trumps-lead-vows-to-bring-car-industry-back-to-france/


Meanwhile Tony Abbot (the ex-Australian PM) gives what would appear to be very good reasons why the UK should leave the EU customs union:

Mr Abbott said: "The best way to ensure that free trade has few losers, even in the short term, is to begin with much freer trade between like-minded countries with comparable standards of living.
"Free trade agreements with economically advanced Commonwealth countries are the obvious place for Britain to start."

"A market of 2.3 billion people and some of the fastest-growing economies in the world is too big an opportunity to ignore."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/10/former-australian-pm-tony-abbott-says-uk-should-leave-eu-customs/

A_Medium_Size_Jock

It also looks like Turkey is preparing for another "nudge" at the EU for negotiations on membership and on visa-free travel for Turks:

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, speaking at the opening of an ambassadors meeting, said he wanted more chapters in the accession talks to be opened "by lifting artificial obstacles to our EU membership".
A "chapter" is a specific area of negotiation, ranging on issues from human rights to economic cooperation. Cavusoglu did not specify which chapters he meant.
He also said Turkey expects "visa liberalisation for Turkish citizens to be provided immediately", a reference to EU commitments on visa-free travel for nearly 80 million Turkish citizens made in March under an EU-Ankara deal to curb migrants entering Europe.
Progress on visa-free travel has been held up by EU demands -- rejected outright -- that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan amend Turkey's draconian anti-terror laws to ensure they do not breach human rights.
Erdogan threatened in December to cancel the migrant deal, which has dramatically reduced the numbers crossing into Europe via Greece.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/turkey-says-eu-incomplete-without-eyes-better-us-000422099.html