If we vote for Brexit what happens

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

So you think it was between 5-20% overvalued? And are now happy that it's dropped by 18% and likely to go further?

And conversely are you suggesting that an overvalued GBP is or was a good thing?
If so, why.

Herzlos

I'm not; I'm just trying to find out if Conrad has an actual opinion on the value of the GBP or just claiming that it'll be great to lower it.

Overall I think it's a bad thing - it means everything gets more expensive for us. It's not bad for me personally in the short term due to some $ investments that went up by an equivalent amount, but I'm under no illusions that being poorer can never really be counted as improving.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

But everybody - at least everybody with a little financial common sense - knew the inevitability of an overvalued currency.
And we have known the GBP was overvalued since what; 2012?

As a simple matter of arithmetic, the people of Britain were not richer before Brexit. To the contrary, they were living beyond their means.
People could use the strength of the pound for cheap vacations, but as a country, Britain was spending more than it was producing, and, in the process, becoming more indebted to the rest of the world.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/why-the-plummeting-pound-sterling-is-good-news-for-britain-a7353846.html

mayonnaise

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm not; I'm just trying to find out if Conrad has an actual opinion on the value of the GBP or just claiming that it'll be great to lower it.

Whether the pound trades at $2 or $0.02, for Conrad it will be a sign of the dawning of the new age of prosperity and a vote of confidence in our Nimble Post-Brexit Tiger Economy.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

Ex-pats are pawns in the game. The Tories said this months ago. Must be quite a worry for EU and UK citizens - not very nice but there you go.

There isn't an EU President so you'll get to vote for one about the same time you get to vote for the UK's head of state.

The President of the EU council is Tusk
The President of the European Commission is Juncher.

It is completely reason to discuss the status of the expats from all eu states : the Tusk is the man who refused to do so.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

How so?

The EU's stance on everything is pretty clear: It continues as-is until it is discussed after A50. The EU isn't the party referring to ex-pats as "bargaining chips", remember?

I think the EU is being perfectly fair here - they don't want to waste any more time than they need to on our posturing, they want things to be sorted as quickly as possible, and know that if we enter negotiations in advance, A50 won't get triggered for decades and if the UK can't get a good deal they'll just pull the plug on the whole thing and not leave.

Would you start discussing divorce or resignation terms before the other party has committed to actually acting on it?

Any lack of clarity about what's happening is 100% the fault of the UK government.

another hate for the people of the UK post

you know the only people refusing to discuss the matter is Tusk

what exactly is the UK posturing : don't you expect article 50 to be enacted?

Conrad

always_sunny wrote: »

Will this "fair value" make Britons richer or poorer at the end of the day?

According to the evidence, richer and more secure with a better balance of exports and imports.


Inflation is well below target anyway - a rise would be welcome to inflate away debt. We eat far too much as we're always being told, perhaps drop our food consumption a little when food rises. What shall we say, reduce food intake and spend by 20%, will well cover food inflation of say 3% (not all inflation costs are passed on to consumer) and leave spare cash for other things.


Services attract no real imported inflation cost and we are big services exports - for a start

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Overall I think it's a bad thing - it means everything gets more expensive for us. It's not bad for me personally in the short term due to some $ investments that went up by an equivalent amount, but I'm under no illusions that being poorer can never really be counted as improving.

Sooner or later the markets were going to call time on our vast trade imbalance with the EU.


We were funding consumption with credit, instead of producing sufficient goods and services in exchange for hard currency.


Why you think importing masses of tatt that sends hard currency abroad is a plus is quite beyond me, not to mention all the insecure poor paying jobs that it manifested

mayonnaise

Herzlos wrote: »

The EU's stance on everything is pretty clear: It continues as-is until it is discussed after A50. The EU isn't the party referring to ex-pats as "bargaining chips", remember?

When even Farage criticizes the 'bargaining chips' policy...

The outgoing Ukip leader, who is stepping down after fulfilling his political dream of freeing Britain from the European Union, described the Home Secretary’s suggestion as “disgusting”.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/686615/Brexit-Nigel-Farage-Theresa-May-EU-bargaining-chip-migrants-UK-Britain
This will haunt the Tories for decades to come. Utterly shameful.

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

When even Farage criticizes the 'bargaining chips' policy...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/686615/Brexit-Nigel-Farage-Theresa-May-EU-bargaining-chip-migrants-UK-Britain
This will haunt the Tories for decades to come. Utterly shameful.

why don't you think that the EU hasn't guaranteed the residency rights of the UK expat as equally disgusting, and that this will shame the EU for decades to come?