If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

And she should be worried; there's no clean way out of this.

We will be a sovereign nation trading with the EU and world, nothing to get worked up about.


You've sort of stuck in a loop of familiarity, with respect, but there's no need to view the world as it used to be.


Even on WTO I wont lose a seconds sleep, trade will go on, there will be no cliff edges.

CLAPTON

davomcdave wrote: »

British women, including immigrants who tend to have a higher fertility rate than people born in Britain, have a fertility rate of 1.92. To see a picture of what the fertility rate might look like without immigrants giving birth Scotland, which has fewer immigrants than England and Wales, has a fertility rate of 1.67.

As the death rate per couple is ultimately 2 that predicts population declines unless people live enough longer to make up the difference. I think that means each generation would need to live 16% longer than the last so life expectancy at birth would need to rise from the current 81.5 to 94.5 over the next 25-30 years, then to 110 over the next generation and on to over 127 in about 80 years time.

Good luck saving enough between the ages of 20 and 65 to last you for 62 years.

why do you see a world with fewer people, less pollution, better housing, more resource per person, better transport as being a negative?

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

We will be a sovereign nation trading with the EU and world, nothing to get worked up about.


You've sort of stuck in a loop of familiarity, with respect, but there's no need to view the world as it used to be.


Even on WTO I wont lose a seconds sleep, trade will go on, there will be no cliff edges.

Where does any of that tie in with May showing any kind of confidence/understanding of what's going on?

Whatever happens with Brexit, the world will not stop turning. That doesn't mean the team in charge is competent.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

Where does any of that tie in with May showing any kind of confidence/understanding of what's going on?

Whatever happens with Brexit, the world will not stop turning. That doesn't mean the team in charge is competent.

As opposed to the remain camp you mean?
Who are repeatedly being proven to be both propagandist and incorrect in their predictions whilst the FACT is that the economy is doing just fine so far.

The world will indeed keep on turning.
Whatever happens with Brexit does not mean that the team in charge is incompetent either.
Time will tell and until it does all anyone can do is observe.

Other than some posters in these forums of course who appear to thrive on the "headless chicken" approach.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Where does any of that tie in with May showing any kind of confidence/understanding of what's going on?

Why on earth would she not be confident? There is nothing to fear, she is well abreast of all the issues and lets not forget her most important other is a City Man of good repute in addition to the talent she worlds with daily.


There is very little to negotiate, we will be a sovereign nation. Trade is the main area as well as rights for citizens living abroad.

Herzlos

Why isn't she so confident then? What's going on between your absolute assurance and her evasive approach to details? Why is she stalling for so long? Why has she told no-one anything meaningful even in private?

I also suspect there will be a lot more negotiation than you seem to think; this isn't going to be a 2 minute meeting where May goes "WTO?" and gets 27 "Aye"s.
I'll be surprised if we can make an agreement on a top level deal before we run out of time and go to WTO.

setmefree2

NZ-EU Trade Deal in Deep Trouble

Monday, 9 January 2017, 11:12 am
Press Release: New Zealand First Party Fletcher Tabuteau MP
New Zealand First Spokesperson
for Trade and Commerce
9 JANUARY 2017

NZ-EU Trade Deal in Deep Trouble Following European Court Opinion
New Zealand First questions the priorities and sensibilities of the new Prime Minister about the proposed NZ-European ‘free trade’ deal after a stunning opinion from the European Court of Justice.
“It has been several weeks since the European Court of Justice’s Advocate-General, Eleanor Sharpston, released an opinion stating that the European Union’s (EU) proposed deal with Singapore must be ratified by all 27-member states,” says Fletcher Tabuteau, New Zealand First Spokesperson on Trade.
“It means any deal with New Zealand would not only have to negotiate the current triple-lock of the Council of the European Union, the European Commission and European Parliament, but negotiations will also have to include 27 national parliaments, and at least five regional and linguistic parliaments in Belgium and at least five upper chambers. New Zealand has already had a hard time trying to become a member of the free-trade block and this process makes it even more difficult.
“Given the all-powerful European farmer lobby likes New Zealand like a hole in the back of the head, our deal with EU isn’t going to go very far, very fast. The Irish, Polish and French, even the Germans have concerns about allowing NZ dairy into their free-trade deals.
“If we continue to snooze we’ll lose, which is why we need to face facts and put our energies into a more likely trade deal with the United Kingdom.
“New Zealand has already started the conversation with the United Kingdom over trade deals, and New Zealand First believes this should be a priority. Once the UK exits the European Union, a trade deal between New Zealand and the UK should be ready to go immediately,” says Mr Tabuteau.


http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1701/S00013/nz-eu-trade-deal-in-deep-trouble.htm

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

NZ-EU Trade Deal in Deep Trouble

So glad we're leaving it's cloying embrace, no wonder growth has been at the bottom of the global league.
Leave global free trade to the UK and like minded grown-up nations.

Herzlos

Are you not worried about how hard they seem to be to negotiate? We provide a lot of things that NZ does as well, so why do we assume the EU will be less hostile to competition from us?

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

I also suspect there will be a lot more negotiation than you seem to think; this isn't going to be a 2 minute meeting where May goes "WTO?" and gets 27 "Aye"s.
I'll be surprised if we can make an agreement on a top level deal before we run out of time and go to WTO.

I favour a very hard line, we offer the EU free access to our markets and the vital city funds, plus continue to offer an outsized military and intelligence contribution, but if they want to throw a hissy fit and hamper their trade, well so be it, we go WTO


Years of squabbling at the EU talking shop would be a waste of energy and divert focus.


There's a possibility free trade will just carry on tbh whilst the EU makes it appear the UK faces years of uncertainty during a negotiation, but in reality trade carries on as is indefinitely.