If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

michaels wrote: »

Interesting May is talking a very hard Brexit.

As I believe she is a lukewarm remainer we have to ask why she is not proposing Brexit lite?

I would guess the game theory plan is that a very hard Brexit begins to look both the only option and extremely risky/destructive to the economy and then May would be forced to go to the country for a general election where the official tories rule out hard brexit perhaps in alliance with the non-momentum labour party.

I think we need to workout what the 'players' want to acheive, what they think they can realistically acheive and what strategy they would use to get totheir 'best possible' position.

There is deliberately no mention of trying to satisfy the popular mandate in this analysis.

brexit light, is the dishonest persons way of saying there will be unlimited and uncontrolled migration of the EU and the european court will dictate our laws.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Interesting May is talking a very hard Brexit.

As I believe she is a lukewarm remainer we have to ask why she is not proposing Brexit lite?

Not her decision. So proposals at this point in time are totally valueless. There's zero certainty that they'll be the final outcome. Therefore better to prepare for the worst scenario. Then work forward from there. As the reality materialises into fact.

CLAPTON

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Not her decision. So proposals at this point in time are totally valueless. There's zero certainty that they'll be the final outcome. Therefore better to prepare for the worst scenario. Then work forward from there. As the reality materialises into fact.

control of our laws and of immigration is NOT the worst scenerio but on the contrary, what was voted for.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Increasingly it would appear that a pro-EU stance is at best illogical, possibly delusional and certainly demonstrates an inability to look at a wider picture when answering the thread title; "If we vote for Brexit what happens?"

(Highlighted word for those who insist upon using the "but we haven't left yet" argument.
The post title clearly says "vote", NOT "leave".)

If we jump off a cliff what happens? Nothing yet, we haven't hit the ground yet.

Voting to leave the EU and actually leaving the EU are intrinsically linked.

davomcdave

CLAPTON wrote: »

control of our laws and of immigration is NOT the worst scenerio but on the contrary, what was voted for.

No it didn't, it voted 'Leave the European Union' in answer to the question, "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?". You infer that to mean that a particular set of policies was voted for but actually they weren't, not even if you really wish they were.

It's as likely that people were voting in favour of £350 million a week for the NHS.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

If we jump off a cliff what happens? Nothing yet, we haven't hit the ground yet.

Voting to leave the EU and actually leaving the EU are intrinsically linked.

for people that genuinely believe that the UK has jumped off a cliff or slit its throat and ruined the future of their children and grandchildren : why haven't they already left?
I agree that some are probably too old but the young : why aren't they flooding out of the country; why isn't the population falling by 500,000 per year of more or are they all waiting for article 50 to be invoked?

What about some predictions about the scale of population falls ?

Herzlos

I was using it as an example.

But yeah, I'm waiting to see what happens because I believe I'll be fairly well insulated from what's going to happen, and it'll take some time to enact a move.

I imagine most people will be the same - wait until we know what's happening before reacting to it. For instance, I'll be content with a soft Brexit, it shouldn't affect me. But with a hard Brexit I'll certainly be looking at relocating.

I don't actually think the population will drop much, but what we'll see is talent drain. We'll start to lose the innovaters, big earners and so on, so what we'll see is that the ratio of providers to dependers will drop.

davomcdave

CLAPTON wrote: »

for people that genuinely believe that the UK has jumped off a cliff or slit its throat and ruined the future of their children and grandchildren : why haven't they already left?
I agree that some are probably too old but the young : why aren't they flooding out of the country; why isn't the population falling by 500,000 per year of more or are they all waiting for article 50 to be invoked?

What about some predictions about the scale of population falls ?

British women, including immigrants who tend to have a higher fertility rate than people born in Britain, have a fertility rate of 1.92. To see a picture of what the fertility rate might look like without immigrants giving birth Scotland, which has fewer immigrants than England and Wales, has a fertility rate of 1.67.

As the death rate per couple is ultimately 2 that predicts population declines unless people live enough longer to make up the difference. I think that means each generation would need to live 16% longer than the last so life expectancy at birth would need to rise from the current 81.5 to 94.5 over the next 25-30 years, then to 110 over the next generation and on to over 127 in about 80 years time.

Good luck saving enough between the ages of 20 and 65 to last you for 62 years.

Herzlos

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/moodys-places-u-k-italy-negative-outlook/

Moody’s is about to place Britain and Italy on a negative credit rating outlook amidst a sharp rise in political risk globally, Reuters reported on Thursday.

Political insecurity puts one in four rated sovereigns in a negative outlook, the highest since the peak of the euro crisis, according to Moody’s managing director Alastair Wilson.

The credit agency is focusing on the Brexit strain on the U.K’s economy and looming possibility of elections. “Brexit is negative for the UK from a credit perspective, the question is how negative,” Wilson said.

In Europe, Moody’s rates Britain under triple -A at Aa1; Italy tumbles to Baa2 Italy.

The agency will review the British economy on June 2nd and September 22nd when Brexit negotiations will be at an advanced stage. Then, according to Wilson, London could see its credit rating decline further.

Moody’s is due to review the UK on June 2 and then on September 22. By then formal EU divorce proceedings should have started, and Wilson said the “mood music” of the talks should be enough to decide whether to strip London of its Aa1 rating.

Meanwhile, Italy is facing its banking problems, and the issue at hand is whether the €20bn set aside by the Italian government will suffice. There is also the question of whether Italy will go to the polls, which at the moment would mean that the anti-Euro Five Star party could come to power.

Italy is clearly a systemic issue for the single currency as such, Moody’s estimates.

Political risk is also becoming a factor in France. The French Presidential-aspirant Marine Le Pen suggested on Wednesday that France should leave the Euro, but suggested an ordered Europe-wide retreat to the ECU.

Moody's doesn't seem to be as optimistic about Brexit in terms of credit risk / confidence.

Sapphire

In other words, all countries that have an anti-EU bent are 'at risk of downgrading' – this is obviously EU propaganda. In passing, note source of this 'Moody's report', i.e. a propaganda organ of the EU.