If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

Pirate, most of what you say may or may not happen, but this is really pie in the sky.

"In time big international companies will see the UK as a gateway to Europe but with the added advantage of not being constrained by EU bureaucracy."

When where big international company's constrained by EU Bureacracy. If they are at a gateway means you have to consider that same EU Bureacracy if you want to pass inside the gates. Further what big International company would want to be outside the gates.

mayonnaise

It's all a bit pie in the sky if you ask me.

Straight after Brexit, the EU is going to offer us the sweetest free trade deal, we won't be making contributions anymore, we'll be picking the cream of the crop in immigration while Brit expats will continue to roam free all over Europe and on top of that, multinationals will be flocking here just because we exited the largest free trade area in the world. Sure.

angrypirate

gfplux wrote: »

Pirate, most of what you say may or may not happen, but this is really pie in the sky.

"In time big international companies will see the UK as a gateway to Europe but with the added advantage of not being constrained by EU bureaucracy."

When where big international company's constrained by EU Bureacracy. If they are at a gateway means you have to consider that same EU Bureacracy if you want to pass inside the gates. Further what big International company would want to be outside the gates.

Is it really? The fact we will be able to negotiate quickly our own trade deals with countries that we already have ties to, like Australia, Canada, South Africa and other former commonwealth countries. The UK provides them with a location physically close to the EU, with EU knowledge yet somewhere without the requirement for a lot of the red tape. Some simple examples

Employees want to work longer hours - fine - no EU working time directive that the Employer needs to arrange paperwork for opt out for.
The company needs to buy in chemicals in quantities different to metric - fine.
Companies need to put up signage in the office / factory but it no longer needs to confirm to strict EU standard signs and can be common sense based instead.
Catering companies can buy cumumbers and bananas that are curved not straight.
Companies can buy locally produced farming produce not in standardised containers - fine.

You may say these are all little things, but they add up and believe me these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Being out of the EU would allow our government to support our steel industry (own by foreign companies) by cutting the Green energy levies that has made them so internationally uncompetitive. We know the Government would do this as they are currently lobbying the EU for approval who are (as usual) dragging their feet.

So tell me, is it really pie in the sky that being out of the EU may help make the UK be a desirable location for foreign companies?

antrobus

mayonnaise wrote: »

It's all a bit pie in the sky if you ask me.

Straight after Brexit, the EU is going to offer us the sweetest free trade deal, we won't be making contributions anymore, we'll be picking the cream of the crop in immigration while Brit expats will continue to roam free all over Europe and on top of that, multinationals will be flocking here just because we exited the largest free trade area in the world. Sure.

I share your scepticism.

angrypirate

antrobus wrote: »

I share your scepticism.

In the event of a leave vote, we wont leave the EU the day after the referendum. There will be years of negotiating before we exit the EU. And one of that will be some a trade agreement. Most of the countries in the EU have a trade surplus with us. With the EU economy already having been declining over the last few years, would the EU really "cut off their nose to spite their face" and risk further years of a declining economy?

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

It's all a bit pie in the sky if you ask me.

Straight after Brexit, the EU is going to offer us the sweetest free trade deal, we won't be making contributions anymore, we'll be picking the cream of the crop in immigration while Brit expats will continue to roam free all over Europe and on top of that, multinationals will be flocking here just because we exited the largest free trade area in the world. Sure.

it would seem reasonable that EU will do what is in its own best interest.
The EU doesn't seem adverse to trading with countries outside its own boundaries e.g. China, India, SE Asia, AUS, NZ,USA, S America etc: why would it bankrupt some of its own companies deliberately by refusing bi-lateral trade with the UK.
It would be reasonable for a deal on existing immigrants : would the EU want their own citizens repatriated due to EU intransigents rather than the UKs?
Its likely there would be a reduction in inward investment at least for the short term but in exchange we get to trade with the rest of the world.

mayonnaise

CLAPTON wrote: »

it would seem reasonable that EU will do what is in its own best interest.

We shouldn't underestimate the determination of 'the powers that be' in Brussels to keep the EU project going.
Allowing one country to walk away, letting that country keep all the benefits of being in the free trade area, but none of the drawbacks, would effectively be the end of the EU.
And the argument that having a trade deficit with the EU puts us in a strong negotiation position while 50-odd percent of our exports go to the EU while a mere 7-8% of EU exports are to Britain is once more pie in the sky.

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

We shouldn't underestimate the determination of 'the powers that be' in Brussels to keep the EU project going.
Allowing one country to walk away, letting that country keep all the benefits of being in the free trade area, but none of the drawbacks, would effectively be the end of the EU.
And the argument that having a trade deficit with the EU puts us in a strong negotiation position while 50-odd percent of our exports go to the EU while a mere 7-8% of EU exports are to Britain is once more pie in the sky.

It seems reasonable for the EU to act in their own self interest and in accordance with international law and agreements they have signed e.g WTO rules etc.
They have chosen to trade with most countries of the world.
The 7% -50% argument seems a poor one to me.
I don't expect to have all the benefits and none of the disadvantages but a trade arrangement like they have with many other countries.

Is the EU so rich and with such low levels of unemployment it would welcome a 7% fall in exports. The 7% won't be spread evenly throughout the EU but concentrated in specific areas which will have political impacts on the affected areas.
Also of course, although you feel that the EU will prove to be a vicious, vindictive NAZI like organisation, we might be pleasantly surprised.

mayonnaise

angrypirate wrote: »

Employees want to work longer hours - fine - no EU working time directive that the Employer needs to arrange paperwork for opt out for.
The company needs to buy in chemicals in quantities different to metric - fine.
Companies need to put up signage in the office / factory but it no longer needs to confirm to strict EU standard signs and can be common sense based instead.
Catering companies can buy cumumbers and bananas that are curved not straight.
Companies can buy locally produced farming produce not in standardised containers - fine.

You may say these are all little things, but they add up and believe me these are just the tip of the iceberg.

And despite these EU imposed rules and regulations, companies have been flocking to the UK for the last 40 years to set up their European HQ here. Remarkable.

mayonnaise

CLAPTON wrote: »

It seems reasonable for the EU to act in their own self interest and in accordance with international law and agreements they have signed e.g WTO rules etc.
They have chosen to trade with most countries of the world.
The 7% -50% argument seems a poor one to me.
I don't expect to have all the benefits and none of the disadvantages but a trade arrangement like they have with many other countries.

Is the EU so rich and with such low levels of unemployment it would welcome a 7% fall in exports. The 7% won't be spread evenly throughout the EU but concentrated in specific areas which will have political impacts on the affected areas.
Also of course, although you fell that they EU will prove to be a vicious, vindictive NAZI like organisation, we might be pleasantly surprised.

I hope you're right, Clapton, but we've seen before how the politics trump the economics in the EU.