If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

Hi Clapton.
Please help me. Can you list those few "knowns"
Just to help my understanding.
Thank you.

some 'knowns'
1. there will be months of negotiations
2. any adverse changes in the economic spectrum will be blamed on the BREXIT.
3. poor weather and any minor natural disasters will be made 'worse' by not having the strength of the EU behind us
4. the SNP will demand an independence referendum
5. The EU will still be holding a 'final' meeting to 'solve' the refugee crisis
6. The Greek economic situation will still be unresolved
7/ Argentina will demand the Malvinas back
8. Corbyn will still be labour 'leader'

angrypirate

CLAPTON wrote: »

some 'knowns'
1. there will be months of negotiations
2. any adverse changes in the economic spectrum will be blamed on the BREXIT.
3. poor weather and any minor natural disasters will be made 'worse' by not having the strength of the EU behind us
4. the SNP will demand an independence referendum
5. The EU will still be holding a 'final' meeting to 'solve' the refugee crisis
6. The Greek economic situation will still be unresolved
7/ Argentina will demand the Malvinas back
8. Corbyn will still be labour 'leader'

Just to add
9. Leaving the EU, the UK overnight will become the EUs biggest trading partner.
10. Nigel Farage gets made redundant.
11. WTO membership ensures that the EU is not allowed to be discriminatory against the UK with regards to unreasonable constraints and trade barriers

Also - dont believe 3 in the slightest. All funds and help that the government provided to help the Xmas 2015 flooding victims has come from the UKs coffers.

Thrugelmir

Events in Calais may help focus peoples minds. If refugees continue to stream into Europe unchecked and unverified at the rate they are. Can only be a matter of time before there's a serious event.

Sapphire

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Events in Calais may help focus peoples minds. If refugees continue to stream into Europe unchecked and unverified at the rate they are. Can only be a matter of time before there's a serious event.

'migrants' – I don't think any of the people squatting in the French camps can be classified as 'refugees', given how many countries they roamed through to get to French coastal areas. They appear to be largely African economic migrants with a violent bent. :cool:

It is a mystery to me why the French have allowed them to stay on their soil, rather than expelling them. I guess this will eventually happen with one violent incident too many – here or elsewhere in northern Europe.

thequant

Sapphire wrote: »

'migrants' – I don't think any of the people squatting in the French camps can be classified as 'refugees', given how many countries they roamed through to get to French coastal areas. They appear to be largely African economic migrants with a violent bent. :cool:

It is a mystery to me why the French have allowed them to stay on their soil, rather than expelling them. I guess this will eventually happen with one violent incident too many – here or elsewhere in northern Europe.

Deffo Migrants, The always lose their passports, but never their Iphones.

I suspect as they have to constantly access different mobile networks as they swarm through Europe. That when they eventually they get here, they use the only asset and usefull skill they have to set up business.

A mobile phone unlocking shop.

kabayiri

I see the IN camp were on telly earlier.

Sir Michael was telling us that leaving would be a loss to the UK economy of £133bn.

The OUT camp were telling us that we would be better off to the tune of £77bn.

It's always nice when alternative economic assessments back up other assessments

...or perhaps, they should all be on Jackanory (or Jacque-anory si tu prefere).

This will all play out like the SNP referendum. Look how harmonious that result was taken by all. No bitterness at all afterwards!

angrypirate

gfplux wrote: »

Did you not understand that the "no change" option meant just that. To continue with our membership and except all the changes that the EU put in place.

Yes currency does fluctuate and I did not want to fudge any figures. I just quoted the snap shot on the day.
However the pound has declined (long term) against the Euro. I am interested in understanding what will happen to the pound/euro rate if we leave. Selfishly I am interested in a strong pound

I have pounds and live in the Euro zone

Ok, in my opinion, immediately following the results, the pound will initially fall as markets fear the unknown.

Due to the sheer volume of trade the UK has with the EU, European industry within the EU (the likes of Audi, BMW, Siemens, Bosch) will put pressure on the European Parliament and a free trade agreement is quickly drawn up. In a relatively short space of time I imagine the UK will agree on a number of trade agreements with various large countries from the commonwealth as well as the US and China.

In time big international companies will see the UK as a gateway to Europe but with the added advantage of not being constrained by EU bureaucracy.

Due to the diversity of our customers we'll be seen to have a robust and resilient economy (ie our China & India exports will boom and help us when the EU economy struggles, our EU and China exports will help when India struggles etc etc) - we wont be reliant on one customer (European exports).

The pound will get a lot stronger against the Euro (if it still exists by then) and this will be exaggerated further when the deferred Greece issue rears its head again.

Shakethedisease

I posted a little bit about this on another thread, but it's far more suited here for those interested.

On Monday, the think-tank Open Europe convened various members of the great and good to role-play two scenarios – in the morning, David Cameron’s attempts at getting a new EU deal, and in the afternoon, the negotiations that would follow the British public’s rejection of it. The first half was a debate. The second was a lynch mob.

The day began with protestations of goodwill all round. Sir Malcolm Rifkind, playing Britain, set out the main areas that Cameron hopes to make progress in. The representatives for Spain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Ireland, Sweden and the EU institutions (played by a variety of similarly experienced figures, including Enrico Letta, former Italian PM, and John Bruton, former Irish Taoiseach), expressed their love for the UK, and their certain belief that a deal could be done....


....That, however, wasn’t the box office bit. That came after lunch, when Sir Malcolm was replaced by Lord Lamont, the former Chancellor, with a mandate to negotiate the terms of Brexit.

http://capx.co/eu-war-games-brexit-feasible-but-talks-will-be-messy/

thequant

mayonnaise wrote: »

You can't imagine how big a favour the French are doing us by allowing UK border control on French soil.
That will of course end with a Brexit, and move the camps from Calais to Dover and Folkestone instead.

That is very true, but I doubt the french ferry companies, eurotunnel and the ports of calais and dunkirk will economical survive when we start tit for tat border restrictions when they start waving people through. C.f. Danish-Swedish border at the moment.

angrypirate

mayonnaise wrote: »

You can't imagine how big a favour the French are doing us by allowing UK border control on French soil.
That will of course end with a Brexit, and move the camps from Calais to Dover and Folkestone instead.

Really? Havent you noticed that when you fly, the border of the country you are flying to doesnt control whether you get on the plane? Rather its the staff of the airline. Thats because anyone who doesnt get into the destination country is sent on a plane back and its the airline who pays.

If you say to the channel tunnel / ferry companies that anyone on your ferry attempting to cross that border will be returned at a cost to the company, Im sure the ferry companies / chunnel will do a perfectly good job.