If we vote for Brexit what happens

kabayiri

CLAPTON wrote: »

...
I accept there are some that believe the 'demographic time bomb' will cause massive harm to the economy in 30-40 years time. They somehow believe that technology and human engenuity have somehow reached a plateau and there are no further productivity gains to be made from robotics etc.
I don't see any evidence for that view and anyway 30-40 years is a long time and one can always change one's policies in the light of new information in the future

When I first got involved with robotics decades ago, you could argue that there were a number of false dawns.

I simply don't believe this to be the case now.

This next generation will see technological change beyond anything we have experienced.

China has a massive working population to satisfy, and yet she invests billions of dollars in to R&D, including robotics. It is just a matter of time before machines do much of the work we allocate to people.

kabayiri

CLAPTON wrote: »

there is no such thing as a bureaucrat (human being) without an set of beliefs

I understand that.

I just think that a plan suggests arguing over one singular outcome for a future EU/UK.

There could in fact be a whole range of possible relationships, each of which carries benefits and costs to both parties.

Surely due diligence would dictate that they spend time working out the details of those costs.

Rinoa

wotsthat wrote: »

Come on that's a deflection. Theresa May made a speech last night in which she said she wanted the UK to lead the world in free trade. Is it too much to ask if that means she has a vision of the UK in or out of the customs union?

Theresa May probably doesn't know the first thing about negotiating trade deals. If she's smart, which I believe she is, she may well have sought advice from the worlds very best trade negotiators.

What if they tell her "Mrs May, before negotiations with the EU begin it is vitally important that your government must absolutely not provide, even the faintest hint or suggestion as to what your aims or wishes are"

How should she then proceed?

wotsthat

kabayiri wrote: »

No, it's an illustration that the average EU citizen has never really been invited to inspect the detailed plans. In fact, May is carrying on the tradition really.

Juncker is not a fan of open democracy, we know this.

Shouldn't we be providing an example of honest open democracy rather than using Juncker as the benchmark?

kabayiri wrote: »

I can't see how May can have a concrete plan. The political undercurrent when the negotiations begin could change the whole approach from either party.

My plan would be simple. Let non-political bureaucrats from both sides spend hours in backrooms sweating out the nitty gritty of a range of options, without political pride and playing to the gallery affecting things.

Then they should have a break, and present a position statement to their own respective parties.

So in a couple of years we might know what a bunch of unelected officials (we don't like them remember) think Brexit means.

We might need another thread.

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

Theresa May probably doesn't know the first thing about negotiating trade deals. If she's smart, which I believe she is, she may well have sought advice from the worlds very best trade negotiators.

What if they tell her "Mrs May, before negotiations with the EU begin it is vitally important that your government must absolutely not provide, even the faintest hint or suggestion as to what your aims or wishes are"

How should she then proceed?

She'd then go and find a negotiator that knows what they are doing.

wotsthat

Rinoa wrote: »

What if they tell her "Mrs May, before negotiations with the EU begin it is vitally important that your government must absolutely not provide, even the faintest hint or suggestion as to what your aims or wishes are"

How should she then proceed?

She should proceed by saying she's taken advice and she thinks its a matter of vital national importance that the government's aims are kept secret.

Simplicity itself.

kabayiri

wotsthat wrote: »

...
So in a couple of years we might know what a bunch of unelected officials (we don't like them remember) think Brexit means.

We might need another thread.

In a couple of years we will definitely know that we got this whole Brexit thing back to front!

When there is a major business change, like a big merger or acquisition, there is invariably a two phase commit.

Phase one involves all sorts of due diligence; spending lots of time exploring all the costs and possible new structures.

Phase two is the rational evaluation of the different options presented by phase one. One of these is to back out of the deal altogether.


This is a focus on process, not a plan. A plan has a singular end goal by definition.

ruggedtoast

"Please make it all go away" Isn't much of a negotiating strategy.

Her useless government called a referendum, the result of which then left it without the faintest idea what to do.

Mucking around time is over now. In order to plan and run our businesses we need to know what is going to happen.

Are we going to keep free movement or not?
Are we going to keep access to the single market or not?
What will happen to our European friends and colleagues?

Get on with it.

Rinoa

wotsthat wrote: »

She should proceed by saying she's taken advice and she thinks its a matter of vital national importance that the government's aims are kept secret.

Simplicity itself.

That's exactly what she's done.

wotsthat

kabayiri wrote: »

Phase one involves all sorts of due diligence; spending lots of time exploring all the costs and possible new structures.

Phase two is the rational evaluation of the different options presented by phase one. One of these is to back out of the deal altogether.

This is a focus on process, not a plan. A plan has a singular end goal by definition.

That has to be correct simply due to the lack of time. Maybe the initial position will be just be - taking full sovereignty over immigration and justice, with an agreed fee for SM access and keep everything else as is for a period of time?

I would quite the government to give us a clue though. Especially on trade - if that can be sorted the politics can follow.

I think it'll be a while before my human rights are respected and I get a straight banana and a jet powered vacuum cleaner though.