If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

ruggedtoast wrote: »

May's transatlantic trade entitlement in tatters as Trump spurns clapped out "Special Relationship" to stand in golden lift with The Toad Farage.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-nigel-farage-first-meeting-donald-trump-speech-trade-us-elections-a7415231.html



Mini Thatcher also only ranked a humiliating ninth in the Pres elects phone call schedule. Ouch, it looks like its going to be tough for Little Englanders outside the EU, unless they go full on fascist and elect Farage as their new UKIP Fuhrer.

We and the USA are one another's biggest investors in spite of NO trade deal.


Hysteria central can calm down again

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Brussels doesn't need a plan; it's role here is entirely reactionary (in that it can only respond to what England wants), and it's position is entirely clear. With no input from May, they've got nothing to do or say.

And just as Brussels has set out a broad stance, so have we, what on earth are the hystericals wanting then?


If they expect more than a broad stance from us, then the hysterical's MUST logically require more than a broad stance from Brussels, for example the kind of fall back positions and points of compromise.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

And just as Brussels has set out a broad stance, so have we, what on earth are the hystericals wanting then?

Brussels has a very clear, specific stance [no special treatment, no single market without movement]. Brexit has, to date, nothing beyond some sound bites and some bloke that made a 3 point plan that essentially said they we'd get full trade concession as is, but we'd close the borders and stop paying them, which even the most stringent Brexiter will admit is never going to happen.

I'm still not sure May *has* a plan, and isn't just hoping it'll go away.

vivatifosi

StevieJ wrote: »

Not sure what point you are trying to make, the pound rejoices every time that Brexit has a setback e.g. High court judgement?

I agree. I am in the USA at the moment. While getting $1.25 to the pound is better than $1.20, it is a whole lot worse than $1.60, which is what it was on average (or thereabouts) for most of the previous years I've been coming here.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Brussels has a very clear, specific stance [no special treatment, no single market without movement]. Brexit has, to date, nothing beyond some sound bites and some bloke that made a 3 point plan that essentially said they we'd get full trade concession as is, but we'd close the borders and stop paying them, which even the most stringent Brexiter will admit is never going to happen.

Ok, so extend your logic there;


You want Mrs May to resile from her stated opening offer, and list alternative positions, thus telling the EU up-front what our bottom line is and how far they can push us.


Mmmm

Conrad

MS MAY - 'Hello Mr Junker, today we are demanding full and free access to the SM, we wont be paying a fee and will be fully sovereign, you can carry on selling to us tariff free, access our fishing grounds and we will maintain a far larger military and intelligence enterprise than other EU nations provide'


MR JUNKER 'Well I am offering you far less, as you stated you would agree to in your talks with Mr Farron who got you to reveal your negotiation geometry to us in advance'

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Ok, so extend your logic there;


You want Mrs May to resile from her stated opening offer, and list alternative positions, thus telling the EU up-front what our bottom line is and how far they can push us.

No, I want May to give a 10 second summary of what she's going to try and get.

Plus, she's the one that's up against the impossible schedule, if she wants to get it done within the 2 years she needs to skip the first round of negotiations where she's asking for unicorns and give the EU a decent starting ground such as "We still want single market, and will keep paying in exchange for only taking migrants that have concrete job offers". That gives the EU something to respond to, but if she starts with "We're not going to pay a penny, want full single market access but no migration" is just going to met with "No. Try again."

She has no cards to show off, no cards to hide, no negotiating power and no time to negotiate.

wotsthat

kabayiri wrote: »

I think they would just issue a list of fairly bland objectives which we already know, accompanied by a rider that explains that everything is subject to negotiations.

I'm not sure it would clarify anything.

It would be nice if we had early EU negotiations followed by a summary of the chief areas of agreement, and of disagreement... from both sides.

I say it would be nice because I am not confident we would get this. Juncker has said before he is not keen on open discussions, preferring things to be resolved behind closed doors.

I don't think we'll see a similar summary from the EU and I don't think Juncker's desire (?) to conduct everything secretly is relevant. Remember we're leaving the EU and one of the reasons is, presumably, we don't like the way they operate. We therefore expect the the UK government to maintain higher standards don't we?

Yes the list might be fairly bland but recently a British Prime Minister went to Europe with the most woolly list of demands and, surprise surprise, he came back declaring success. He's unemployed now. Let's avoid that sort of game with some clarity beforehand.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

MS MAY - 'Hello Mr Junker, today we are demanding full and free access to the SM, we wont be paying a fee and will be fully sovereign, you can carry on selling to us tariff free, access our fishing grounds and we will maintain a far larger military and intelligence enterprise than other EU nations provide'


MR JUNKER 'Well I am offering you far less, as you stated you would agree to in your talks with Mr Farron who got you to reveal your negotiation geometry to us in advance'

Meanwhile back in reality - the menu of options is on the table - there will be no 'Europe-a-la-carte'.

We pick an option and ask for permission to take it - then spend the next two years working out the legalities.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Meanwhile back in reality - the menu of options is on the table - there will be no 'Europe-a-la-carte'.

We pick an option and ask for permission to take it - then spend the next two years working out the legalities.

what menu of options is on the table?