If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

Yes, the uncertainty of the UK post Brexit is less than iScotland post independence. The UK will be in a better position than iScotland. Whoopee doo!

I hope the UK will be in a position to offer tariff free trade with the world and, IMO, it's the only red line the UK to try and protect trade with the EU at least in the short term. However, it's not certain that (a) we will be able to offer tariff free trade with the world or (b) we will offer such trade if the opportunity arises.

i.e. there's still uncertainty and it will affect investment. Presumably you aren't putting your own money into ventures that are reliant on the UK offering tariff free trade with the whole planet. No thought not.

why do you think that the UK won't be able to offer 0 tariff on imports?

CLAPTON

Kohoutek wrote: »

We'll have to disagree if that's your view.

do you deny we trade successfully with the USA?

Thrugelmir

Kohoutek wrote: »

We'll have to disagree if that's your view.

Financial services (investment banking) is contracting. Not the be all and end all it was. Hey days are well over. So wouldn't get too hung up on it.

wotsthat

setmefree2 wrote: »

The uncertainty created in the UK is about tariffs and paperwork (as goods go through customs.) Eventually this will be sorted out.

The uncertainty being created in Scotland is about currency, the banking system and the rule of law - before you ever get to tariffs, quotas and paperwork.....and even if they vote to stay - investors are going to think - oh well, those Scots have said they won't have another vote - it's once in a generation vote- but clearly that's not true. So Sturgeon and the SNP are creating neverending uncertainty. Our uncertainty will end.

Yes the uncertainty for the UK is less, in different areas, and possibly shorter term. We can dance around all you like but if uncertainty affects investment then investment in the UK is being/ will be reduced as a result.

Agreed it's going to be worse for an iScotland but as I suggested I don't think the SNP care. If the SNP convince enough people to create an independent Scotland then I won't care either other than with regard to how any negative impacts impact my (ever smaller) monkeysphere.

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

Yes, there's an inverse relationship between uncertainty and investment.

The relationship isn't affected by location.

Not investment. How a business is to be structured.

As an example. RBS is splitting up into primarily RBS retail , Nat West Retail, Market Trading. Obvious where the individual companies are going to be sited. Scotland gets left with an insignificant regional bank again. Just as it was pre Fred the Shreds years. I'd expect other financial institutions to do likewise.

TrickyTree83

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Not investment. How a business is to be structured.

As an example. RBS is splitting up into primarily RBS retail , Nat West Retail, Market Trading. Obvious where the individual companies are going to be sited. Scotland gets left with an insignificant regional bank again. Just as it was pre Fred the Shreds years. I'd expect other financial institutions to do likewise.

Unless you're Hamish or other pro indy supporters who will say Goldman Sachs, J P Morgan Chase, etc... will be falling over themselves to move to Scotland, where all the talent is, immediately after Scotland becomes independent and 'remains' in the EU, you know because Scotland is already a member, not the UK.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

why do you think that the UK won't be able to offer 0 tariff on imports?

I didn't say I thought that. I said it isn't a certainty - we might leave the EU but stay in the customs union?

Far from ideal but the priorities of the UK negotiating team are, at best, defined but secret or, more likely, nowhere near formulated. i.e. uncertain.

Ballard

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Financial services (investment banking) is contracting. Not the be all and end all it was. Hey days are well over. So wouldn't get too hung up on it.

That's right. Just because services are the biggest U.K. industry doesn't mean that we should worry about it reducing. It would only mean losing relatively highly paid bankers anyway so who cares?

Obviously, that'd mean far less income tax and national insurance but that's a small price to pay to be free of Brussels, eh.

Kohoutek

CLAPTON wrote: »

do you deny we trade successfully with the USA?

Can you define 'trade successfully'?

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Not investment. How a business is to be structured.

As an example. RBS is splitting up into primarily RBS retail , Nat West Retail, Market Trading. Obvious where the individual companies are going to be sited. Scotland gets left with an insignificant regional bank again. Just as it was pre Fred the Shreds years. I'd expect other financial institutions to do likewise.

Changing the structure is simply the method they're using to reduce investment into Scotland.