If we vote for Brexit what happens

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

Yet when it's suggested that the uncertainty of Brexit affects investment in the UK it's dismissed as unpatriotic scaremongering.

Sturgeon is creating instability far beyond the realms of Brexit. The unknowns extend far beyond trade agreements etc. If I was in business in Scotland I would ensure that I had an established foot inside the door of England.

TrickyTree83

One country and group of people have the institutions to make their breakaway from a union a success, the other does not. The two situations are not comparable if you actually look at the details rather than the headlines.

Incidentally there's an article today on BBC news about the side scrambling to rectify the trade imbalance they have in relation to their desire to leave their union. Many years too late given they should also have been doing that prior to 2014. Second rate politicians with second rate plans and policies.

wotsthat

setmefree2 wrote: »

But anyone investing in England, Wales and Northern Ireland knows that in 10 years, say, we will be using the pound and that we'll be on a UK WTO schedule. Who knows what Scotland will be doing?

We have no idea what our trading relationship with the EU will be and, if Scotland leaves the UK, we don't know the terms of that either.

Yes, I agree investment in Scotland will be (badly) damaged if, they increase uncertainty by going independent but let's not kid ourselves that the uncertainty of Brexit isn't significant for the UK.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

I'll use what the Brexiteers see as a killer argument in favour of Scotland. There are plenty of countries that aren't part of the EU and do just fine. By the same logic there are plenty of countries that aren't part of the UK and do just fine.

very true

Scotland will be worse off leaving the UK for the same reason the UK will be worse off leaving the EU. Dramatically reduced free trade at least for a period of time.

scottish people receive a heavy subsidy in comparison to the English which will disappear when they have independence
If they join EU they will almost certainly be a contributor rather than a beneficiary.

Economic damage is inevitable in both cases. Brexiteers and Scottish Nationalists either don't care or believe the benefits over the longer term will be worth it.

My view is Scottish Nationalists mainly belong to the former and Brexiteers the latter.

The EU is a protectionist organisation that does NOT practice free trade.
We don't know the trade arrangements between an Iscotland and the UK either within or without the EU so we don't know whether the element of free trade will increase, decrease or stay the same: in iscotland case we don't know what currency they will use, what their fiscal policies will be or whether they will be within or without the EU.

In the case of the UK and brexit we do know the currency, we know broadly the fiscal and monetary policies but we don't know how much free trade there will be: we do know the UK will be free to offer tariff free trade with the rest of the world which are are currently unable to do.

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Sturgeon is creating instability far beyond the realms of Brexit. The unknowns extend far beyond trade agreements etc. If I was in business in Scotland I would ensure that I had an established foot inside the door of England.

Yes, there's an inverse relationship between uncertainty and investment.

The relationship isn't affected by location.

setmefree2

wotsthat wrote: »

I'll use what the Brexiteers see as a killer argument in favour of Scotland. There are plenty of countries that aren't part of the EU and do just fine. By the same logic there are plenty of countries that aren't part of the UK and do just fine.

Scotland will be worse off leaving the UK for the same reason the UK will be worse off leaving the EU. Dramatically reduced free trade at least for a period of time.

Economic damage is inevitable in both cases. Brexiteers and Scottish Nationalists either don't care or believe the benefits over the longer term will be worth it.

My view is Scottish Nationalists mainly belong to the former and Brexiteers the latter.

The uncertainty created in the UK is about tariffs and paperwork (as goods go through customs.) Eventually this will be sorted out.

The uncertainty being created in Scotland is about currency, the banking system and the rule of law - before you ever get to tariffs, quotas and paperwork.....and even if they vote to stay - investors are going to think - oh well, those Scots have said they won't have another vote - it's once in a generation vote- but clearly that's not true. So Sturgeon and the SNP are creating neverending uncertainty. Our uncertainty will end.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

Yes, there's an inverse relationship between uncertainty and investment.

The relationship isn't affected by location.

presumably you are expecting a massive falloff of foreign purchases of London property.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

In the case of the UK and brexit we do know the currency, we know broadly the fiscal and monetary policies but we don't know how much free trade there will be: we do know the UK will be free to offer tariff free trade with the rest of the world which are are currently unable to do.

Yes, the uncertainty of the UK post Brexit is less than iScotland post independence. The UK will be in a better position than iScotland. Whoopee doo!

I hope the UK will be in a position to offer tariff free trade with the world and, IMO, it's the only red line the UK to try and protect trade with the EU at least in the short term. However, it's not certain that (a) we will be able to offer tariff free trade with the world or (b) we will offer such trade if the opportunity arises.

i.e. there's still uncertainty and it will affect investment. Presumably you aren't putting your own money into ventures that are reliant on the UK offering tariff free trade with the whole planet. No thought not.

Kohoutek

CLAPTON wrote: »

what's your point
the UK doesn't have a financial services industry that depends upon full access to the single market to be competitive.

We'll have to disagree if that's your view.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

presumably you are expecting a massive falloff of foreign purchases of London property.

Not really. If I was a foreigner thinking about buying a London place I'd note there's zero hint that post Brexit Britain is going to be less respectful of ownership rights. And there's a sale of UK assets.

If I was a foreigner thinking about building a car plant to service the UK and European markets I'd be having a harder think about that.

I'm sure I don't need to explain this but Brexit is going to create uncertainty in some areas more than others.