If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

Mayonnaise won't like this post.

We have Friends!

UK will be first for trade deal - Donald Trump adviser

Britain will be offered a free trade deal before the rest of the European Union if the Republicans win the US presidential election, Donald Trump's trade adviser has said.
Dan DiMicco said Britain was "a friend" of America and was leaving the EU for the right reasons.

Mr DiMicco said with the present Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) proposals "on hold", Britain would be at the front of the queue for any future trade deal once the UK has left the EU.
His comments contrast with those of outgoing President Barack Obama, who - speaking before the UK's EU referendum in June - said Britain would go to the "back of the queue" for trade deals with the US if it left the EU.
When asked if the US would do a deal with Britain ahead of the EU, Mr DiMicco told me: "Absolutely.
"First off they are our friends, they have always supported us, and we've worked together, and they are leaving the EU in our estimation for the right reasons.
"They have lost control of their economy, the job creation engine, so why shouldn't we be working with like-minded people before we do a deal with anybody else?"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37594928

setmefree2

Forget EU trade deals... Britain needs to crack WTO post-Brexit, say experts

The complexities exist in that while Britain will not need to reapply for access to the organisation, the nation will be required to obtain the unanimous approval of all other members as to its new “schedule” - the tariffs and subsidies committed to by its farmers, manufacturers and service companies post-Brexit.
Currently this would mean haggling Britain’s terms with 163 other states

Maika Oshikawa, the WTO’s head of accession negotiations, said: “The UK is a member in its own right, so it’s not like being kicked out of the WTO.
“This is not a case of applying.
“It’s going to be a unique case and unprecedented. So if anybody is interested in trade, of course it’s an interesting brainstorming exercise.
“I think diplomacy is an important tool in how to approach this.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/718908/Forget-EU-trade-deals-Britain-needs-to-crack-WTO-post-Brexit-say-experts

setmefree2

French National Front leader Marine Le Pen dismissed President Francois Hollande’s hardening stance over Britain’s departure from the European Union, saying the rest of the bloc will pave the way for smooth trade relations.
“There are threats and blackmail but the EU has no interest in breaking commercial relations with the U.K.,” Le Pen said in an interview during a visit to a farm in central France Friday. “There is strong talk but there are negotiations that will benefit Britain. They are already benefiting because they are able take strategic decisions we can’t because of dictates from the EU."
The remarks underline the domestic political pressure on Hollande and other leaders across Europe as they prepare to open formal talks with the U.K. by April. Le Pen, whose party is pushing for France to exit from the euro and the EU, has consistently polled as the front-runner going into the country’s 2017 presidential election.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-07/le-pen-dismisses-hollande-s-brexit-warning-sees-u-k-gaining

setmefree2

EU Doesn't Want Brexit "Negotiations", the EU Wants "Blood Revenge"

Hollande sounds just like a gang leader from South side Chicago ghettos, or for that matter, gangs anywhere.
Gangs maintain their control by coercion and force. Once you are in, you are in for life. If you threaten to leave, they will threaten your sister or your mom. If you Join another gang, they will likely kill you.

http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/2523brexit-2523markets-2523economy-2523EU-2523UK/10/7/2016/id/58504

gfplux

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Why does everyone arguing the remain side come out with this claptrap?

Because one member state, the UK, leaves the EU we are opening pandoras box of European warfare? It's ridiculous.

If there is a war in the distant future on the continent of Europe it will not be because of the UK leaving a political union with 27 other member states of Europe.

Sorry to touch a nerve tricky

gfplux

HornetSaver wrote: »

And there I was under the mistaken impression that that rag stopped praising the Germans in 1938.



I don't.

I'm certain that we will tell the EU the preconditions for any deal other than hard Brexit. I'm equally certain that the EU will tell us that those preconditions cross multiple red lines that they will not budge on (red lines that they have consistently maintained to be red lines, in fairness).

What happens from there remains to be seen - we could compromise towards a soft Brexit, which is the outcome the majority of Brits would want assuming something could be done on immigration (more specifically, the automatic right to live and work here).

But if the Government's recent rhetoric is to be believed, we would effectively respond to the EU's position by saying "fine", and use the rest of the Article 50 timeline to get a head start on new deals with the likes of US, the Commonwealth and China. Such deals really do take years by the way, hence why the Article 50 timeline is so short - it's deliberately designed to make EU exit a decision not to be taken lightly. It is not something you should be able to do on a whim if there is the slightest chance you are going to change your mind.

The net result will therefore be a reasonably short but deep recession, because despite being able to trade with the EU under WTO rules, the economic shock of the actual effects of a hard Brexit will come in a very short period of time, and take a significant period of time to fully grow ourselves back from.

It remains an open-ended question as to whether Brexit will be better over the longer term, due to factors we could not possibly reliably predict yet. 30 years ago who would have predicted China being where it is today? Who would have predicted 9/11 and its aftermath? Who would have predicted the future trend of the British housing market? A unified Germany? The Euro? Peace in Northern Ireland?

What I can say with certainty is that of the two options on the ballot paper in June, Brexit was the one with the greater range of outcomes. At best it was better than we could ever get from being in the EU, but equally, and with equal likelihood, at worst it was worse than it could ever have been. What would ultimately tip those scales in Brexit's favour was the extent to which there was a consensus and a vision of what the future path was and how to get there. And that's what ultimately led me to believe that it was the wrong time to leave. May and Hammond would in normal times be a reassuring factor, but internationally these are not normal times - there is a genuine chance of a President Trump for goodness sake!

Then again if they don't get it right (or, even if they do get it right, are not seen to have done well enough quickly enough), we get Corbyn. As if things weren't precarious enough already!

Thank you. A balanced view rather than the jingoistic foreigner bashing appearing regularly in this thread.

All the present uncertainty is very damaging for both sides but more so for Britain.
I fear that the pound could be mortally wounded and will continue to decline against the dollar and the euro.
Obviously a very weak pound will have enormous attractions for tourists and investors in both property and businesses.
On the down side prices in UK shops will rise significantly.

I am telling everyone that there is a golden window of the next few months to visit the UK before the costs during the visit will out way the currency benefit.

I also agree Britain will not get what it wants from the negotiations. Both sides appear to be hardening their positions this week ahead of the talks but the EU will not move on free movement and that will be the deal breaker in my opinion. Everything else is noise.

Finally my (French) wife who thought she knew your Country well, can not contain her anger at Britain and the unthinkable phrase left her mouth this morning over breakfast........"it was Great Britain but it will become Little Britain very soon"
I apologise on her behalf, not because she is wrong but because it is in bad taste and we all know how good mannered the British are!

setmefree2

EU Tariffs.

If we adopt EU tariffs on the UK's schedule with the WTO you might want to know what a particular EU tariff is - there is a good link here

http://madb.europa.eu/madb/euTariffs.htm#

Pick a country - like the US - which has no trade agreement with the EU (as that will be us), pick your product - say "tomato sauce" - voila tariff 10.2%. So tomato sauce coming in from the EU will face a tarrif of 10.2%....
....I'm guessing our supermarkets will find a new source for sauce in the UK.

nkomp18

Right so you vote for Brexit because you don't like the energy saving regulations, you prefer your washing machine to be energy inefficient and to waste energy and harm the environment. Excellent. Teresa May will agree with you, that whole kerfuffle about human rights is really annoying, she also thinks that not having human rights is better.

Meanwhile the 27 EU countries will need to stick together and do what is best for them. UK is no longer a concern.That's not a "punishment", that's a side effect only caused by UK's actions.

You thought maybe the EU would make some sort of concession and make everything nice and easy, but no. It'll make things incredibly difficult for the UK. That's not punishment. This is solidarity, sticking together, coming out stronger, all for one and one for all, etc

And so it's happening. You're looking at decades of poverty ahead of you. Remember the UK pre 1973? You're going to soon.

The dice has been cast: British and EU consensus on “Hard Brexit”
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/angela-merkel-pushes-hard-brexit-line/

The_Last_Username

gfplux wrote: »

Thank you. A balanced view rather than the jingoistic foreigner bashing appearing regularly in this thread.

All the present uncertainty is very damaging for both sides but more so for Britain.
I fear that the pound could be mortally wounded and will continue to decline against the dollar and the euro.
Obviously a very weak pound will have enormous attractions for tourists and investors in both property and businesses.
On the down side prices in UK shops will rise significantly.

I am telling everyone that there is a golden window of the next few months to visit the UK before the costs during the visit will out way the currency benefit.

I also agree Britain will not get what it wants from the negotiations. Both sides appear to be hardening their positions this week ahead of the talks but the EU will not move on free movement and that will be the deal breaker in my opinion. Everything else is noise.

Finally my (French) wife who thought she knew your Country well, can not contain her anger at Britain and the unthinkable phrase left her mouth this morning over breakfast........"it was Great Britain but it will become Little Britain very soon"
I apologise on her behalf, not because she is wrong but because it is in bad taste and we all know how good mannered the British are!

An interesting POV ........ but not one I personally agree with, for a few reasons:

Firstly the Eurozone itself will change significantly over the next few years.
Forthcoming elections together with substantial financial difficulties across the zone (and other problems, of which migration is just one) will ensure change.
How much change ....... well, I no more have a crystal ball than you but change there will and indeed MUST be.
This has been accepted and recognised by many, both within and outside the EU; indeed many now suggest (as I did back in February maybe?) that even the Euro itself as a currency is doomed.
No, not immediately but doomed it is.

Secondly, there are too many outside the Eurozone who would dearly love to see the EU's powerful position reduced (or even removed completely).
Not just the obvious likes of Russia but the less-obvious; it is also already apparent that The Commonwealth is looking for stronger ties to the UK.
These countries would use the UK (by increasing business) to snub the EU who have already been seen as demanding and a regulatory nightmare; domineering over Greece for example; and over the tit-for-tat appearance of fining global business (like Apple).

Now I'm not suggesting the above will negate the possibility of further negative impacts upon the UK economy as a result of Brexit.
Put simply, who knows?
But to suggest that ALL (or even the majority of) detrimental consequences will be felt in the UK alone is nothing short of preposterous.
The whole world is going through a period of substantial change.
As a direct result of voting for Brexit, there is now a good chance that the UK can weather these changes better than many other countries, and certainly better than if it were still a full EU member.

Myself I look forward to re-reading this thread in - oh, say five years and saying "look, I said so way back in...".

The_Last_Username

nkomp18 wrote: »

Right so you vote for Brexit because you don't like the energy saving regulations, you prefer your washing machine to be energy inefficient and to waste energy and harm the environment. Excellent. Teresa May will agree with you, that whole kerfuffle about human rights is really annoying, she also thinks that not having human rights is better.

Meanwhile the 27 EU countries will need to stick together and do what is best for them. UK is no longer a concern.That's not a "punishment", that's a side effect only caused by UK's actions.

You thought maybe the EU would make some sort of concession and make everything nice and easy, but no. It'll make things incredibly difficult for the UK. That's not punishment. This is solidarity, sticking together, coming out stronger, all for one and one for all, etc

And so it's happening. You're looking at decades of poverty ahead of you. Remember the UK pre 1973? You're going to soon.

The dice has been cast: British and EU consensus on “Hard Brexit”
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/angela-merkel-pushes-hard-brexit-line/

What a load of tosh!

The 27 EU countries never could "stick together" before so what makes you think they will now?

The EU is already seen by much of the rest of the world as being domineering and overly bureaucratic; do you think forcing such a hard-line stance will improve that view and encourage more EU trade?

Is there not a long list of serious difficulties facing the EU without even considering Brexit?

The reality is that - whilst the UK may indeed face difficult times - the whole world is going through a period of substantial change.
The UK is better equipped to deal with this change outside the EU than within.