Britain and the EU

Generali

Graham_Devon wrote: »

There are quite a few polls on this and they vary quite significantly.

So as you understand polls, you'll understand differing selection.

A survation poll last week put those wanting out of the EU ahead of those wanting to stay in, at 51% leave, 49% stay.

Hard to tell with polls, but the general feeling (in my opinion) is that there is a slight shift, not only in the press but also on the question time clapometer towards more and more taking issue with the EU in light of more recent events.

Looks at the article and it shows the ranges that Carry on Getting Mugged by Brussels and Stomp Off in a Huff have been getting. Remain has polled above Leave on a very consistent basis with that Survation poll being very much the outlier.

Short of an unprecedented disaster, I don't see enough changing over the next couple of years to see the polls shifting by the pretty big chunk needed for Leave to win it.

Sapphire wrote: »

Of course I know how polls work. What's with the aggro.? :EasterBun

No aggro it just seems a bit of a daft post really. Most people haven't been polled, that's how polls work.

Sapphire

Generali wrote: »

No aggro it just seems a bit of a daft post really. Most people haven't been polled, that's how polls work.

No less daft than yours, then – what was the point of your original post? Mine in reply was just to convey that it was a bit early to poll people, given how far away we are from a referendum, and in the light of the illegal migrant invasion and the repercussions from that on voters' intentions, which will probably depend on whether the invasion is stopped (and how soon), or not. Immigration is the key issue for many voters that I speak to, who are also not keen on Merkel and Junkers's bullying tactics, and who do not want to be part of a United States of Germany. :cool:

Generali

Sapphire wrote: »

No less daft than yours, then – what was the point of your original post? Mine in reply was just to convey that it was a bit early to poll people, given how far away we are from a referendum, and in the light of the migrant invasion and the repercussions from that on voters' intentions, which will probably depend on whether the invasion is stopped (and how soon), or not. :cool:

I would counter that with the point that most people have probably made up their minds about the merits or otherwise of being in the EEC/EC/EU after 40 years.

I don't think I've ever met someone who is 'meh' on the EU, everyone seems to be either for or against.

Remain is about 10-15% ahead in the polls so Leave needs to get almost 70% of the undecideds in order to win.

I agree that it's possible that the migrant crisis or indeed some other crisis will intervene to upset the apple cart between now and the vote but it isn't the most likely outcome and crises are generally few and far between.

As for the migrant crisis specifically, the UK has agreed to take 20,000 I believe I am right in saying. Australia has agreed to take in more than 30,000, has less than 40% of the population of the UK and is not an EU member. Canada, which has about 60% of the population of the UK, has agreed to take 46,000 Syrian refugees and is not an EU member.

Clearly the Syrian migrant crisis is not related to the UK's membership of the EU. It is a humanitarian crisis caused by war, geopolitics and extremes of poverty.

I didn't mean for my post to be rude BTW. Lots of people seem to think that because they haven't been polled specifically, their views aren't represented. Unless they have particularly extreme or bizarre views, they will have been.

Generali

Here is a list of all the polls taken on the EU referendum:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/eu-referendum

To take the polls since the wording of the question was confirmed, the average for Remain and Leave after don't knows are taken out are 53.4% and 46.6% respectively.

The averages including don't know are 43.9%, 38.3% and 17.6%.

Only one of the ten polls has shown a lead for Leave that is greater than the margin of error for the poll (one further poll has shown a Leave lead that is within the margin of error, i.e. meaningless).

The polls seem to be settling in to a 55-45 Leave-Remain margin. That's huge in a two horse race. Most US presidential races are tighter than that for example with losers by more than 10% being notable for their awfulness (think Mondale and McGovern). Even Jimmy Carter managed to lose by less than 10% of the popular vote!

Sapphire

Understood, Generali. However, I do still think that the migrant invasion – which now extends even to migrants invading a British air base, something that I would have thought could be extremely dangerous for our security – has drawn people's attention to the EU and made them focus on it a lot more than they used to. A lot of people have remarked on how useless the EU has been in stopping the influx of people – which, given the potential for tens of millions to attempt to invade Europe, could have a catastrophic impact on the European continent. Before this happened, I'd say most people were fairly indifferent to the EU, bordering on not liking it very much because they thought it was a cash cow in terms of taxpayers' money being used for fripperies (among some good things), but not knowing very much about it. I have to say that any merits of the EU have never been clearly spelled out (it's all pretty vague).

Anyway, we'll see…

Generali

Sapphire wrote: »

Understood, Generali. However, I do still think that the migrant invasion – which now extends even to migrants invading a British air base, something that I would have thought could be extremely dangerous for our security – has drawn people's attention to the EU and made them focus on it a lot more than they used to. A lot of people have remarked on how useless the EU has been in stopping the influx of people – which, given the potential for tens of millions to attempt to invade Europe, could have a catastrophic impact on the European continent. Before this happened, I'd say most people were fairly indifferent to the EU, bordering on not liking it very much because they thought it was a cash cow in terms of taxpayers' money being used for fripperies (among some good things), but not knowing very much about it. I have to say that any merits of the EU have never been clearly spelled out (it's all pretty vague).

Anyway, we'll see…

I simply don't see how leaving the EU settles the problem with large numbers of refugees coming from the MENA region (poor and often violent) to Europe (rich and peaceful). Furthermore it's hard to see what could be done short of killing people. When you have people that determined and desperate to leave where they are then I suspect your choice is to shoot them or accept them.

The merits of the EU are mostly financial: freedom of movement means labour can be allocated more efficiently being able to move with price signals and the free market is a great enabler of free trade, the benefits from which are generally estimated to be huge if hard to measure directly.

wotsthat

Sapphire wrote: »

Understood, Generali. However, I do still think that the migrant invasion – which now extends even to migrants invading a British air base, something that I would have thought could be extremely dangerous for our security – has drawn people's attention to the EU and made them focus on it a lot more than they used to. A lot of people have remarked on how useless the EU has been in stopping the influx of people – which, given the potential for tens of millions to attempt to invade Europe, could have a catastrophic impact on the European continent. Before this happened, I'd say most people were fairly indifferent to the EU, bordering on not liking it very much because they thought it was a cash cow in terms of taxpayers' money being used for fripperies (among some good things), but not knowing very much about it. I have to say that any merits of the EU have never been clearly spelled out (it's all pretty vague).

Anyway, we'll see…

Have a look at this..

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06077/SN06077.pdf

In 2013 47.2% of migrants to the UK were from outside the EU i.e. The UK has complete discretion about whether to allow entry.

The balance didn't all come from the EU either - 14.5% were Brits.

Most of the migrants to the UK are here by invite - the UK government has complete discretion. It's ironic really that immigration is going to be the main issue because UK government policy has dramatically more impact than the free movement we enjoy within the EU.

Also, it shouldn't be beyond government to, within reason, 'select' which EU migrants we take and stay within EU rules. That we don't do more is also down to UK policy.

Leaving the EU won't make much of a difference to migration unless there's a change of UK policy or the economy tanks

leveller2911

Generali wrote: »

I don't think I've ever met someone who is 'meh' on the EU, everyone seems to be either for or against.

I agree, the EU is a bit like Marmite, like it or hate.

Remain is about 10-15% ahead in the polls so Leave needs to get almost 70% of the undecideds in order to win.

I don't believe the polls for one minute. With my business I meet the public on a daily basis with a cross section of society but the majority would be professional middle class and I can count on one hand the number of pro EU voters and two of those worked for the EU. I'm yet to meet a single working class person who is in favour of staying in. This is purely anecdotal and opinions may change nearer the time but overall the general consensus from the people I meet hasn't changed over the past decade.

I agree that it's possible that the migrant crisis or indeed some other crisis will intervene to upset the apple cart between now and the vote but it isn't the most likely outcome and crises are generally few and far between.

The migrant crisis will be like a bed sore , it will get worse before it gets better with the Winter giving tempory lull and this is mainly down to the lack of a coherant plan by the EU.

Clearly the Syrian migrant crisis is not related to the UK's membership of the EU. It is a humanitarian crisis caused by war, geopolitics and extremes of poverty.

I don't agree .

It is linked to the EU membership because the migrant crisis has bought to the surface the problems with the total lack of a coherant political system and decision making process. The EU is like a huge oil tanker, its slow,cumbersom and take an eternity to change tack and turn around. This along with the way in which the Merkal has acted unilaterally on the migrant issue has caused a long term rift within the EU. When the Germans and French tell small Eastern European states to tow the line or their subsidies could be at risk has put a huge question mark over the democracy of the EU and its future path.

Generali

leveller2911 wrote: »

It is linked to the EU membership because the migrant crisis has bought to the surface the problems with the total lack of a coherant political system and decision making process. The EU is like a huge oil tanker, its slow,cumbersom and take an eternity to change tack and turn around. This along with the way in which the Merkal has acted unilaterally on the migrant issue has caused a long term rift within the EU. When the Germans and French tell small Eastern European states to tow the line or their subsidies could be at risk has put a huge question mark over the democracy of the EU and its future path.

I don't see how quitting the EU resolves that problem, if anything it makes it worse. At least the EU has a series of structures and institutions, albeit flawed ones, which enable decisions to be made in some kind of an organised way.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

I don't see how quitting the EU resolves that problem, if anything it makes it worse. At least the EU has a series of structures and institutions, albeit flawed ones, which enable decisions to be made in some kind of an organised way.

hard to describe Merkel's unilateral invite for the world to come to Germany as a 'kind of organised way'.