Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

1961Nick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Have I finally lost it?

I'm sure I heard something on the radio earlier about the government creating a dedicated climate change department (or something like that), but can't find anything now!

There was something on the news last week about a Minister for climate change?

Martyn1981

1961Nick wrote: »

I agree that the cost of manufacturing the car would increase, but hybrid may be the only option for a manufacturer with a vehicle that's less than half way through it's anticipated life. Lead times are long enough anyway, but a clean sheet new technology design could take 5 years or more.

What I'm saying, is that Hybrid could be the only way of preserving the sales of existing vehicles & the mid-life facelift could be the ideal time to do it. The economic viability will favour vehicles with a high list price & profit margin.

Yep, I get the theory, but what I'm pointing out is that the market appears to have already decided, and the result is falling PHEV sales and rising BEV sales.

Manufacturers 'PHEVasising' their existing production sounds like a good idea, but if that results in a higher cost vehicle, and one that in TCO terms will cost even more than an ICE, then that will simply shift the market further in favour of BEV's.

We can theorize all we like, but it appears (I think?) that the market (and economics) has already decided, and I'm not sure how that trajectory can now be changed.

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

With regards to the idea of plug in Hybrids not being a good idea well you would say that you are a vested interests with your share holdings in a pure BEV company

My TM3 downpayment is currently invested in Tesla stock so I'm with Mart on this one!:rotfl:

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

I agree that the cost of manufacturing the car would increase, but hybrid may be the only option for a manufacturer with a vehicle that's less than half way through it's anticipated life. Lead times are long enough anyway, but a clean sheet new technology design could take 5 years or more.

What I'm saying, is that Hybrid could be the only way of preserving the sales of existing vehicles & the mid-life facelift could be the ideal time to do it. The economic viability will favour vehicles with a high list price & profit margin.

The types of hybrid I'm talking about would need at least about 20-25KWH battery packs so the petrol side can be a compact fixed speed cheap generator not a fully fledged petrol engine transmission gear box clutch etc just a fixed speed generator. If better batteries are produced in the future or super capacitors become affordable then a smaller pack of perhaps 10-15KWh might be viable.

I think the car industry will move to think. Pure BEV class vehicles with small petrol generator to charge up the batteries when they fall below 5%

This generator would be a small petrol engine probably around the 400cc mark like in motorbikes coupled to a 15KWe generator so the generator can charge up the batteries at 15KW speed

This generator can add 60-65 miles of range by turning on for an hour

100 mile electric range would get most people 98% annual mileage in electricity
The cost of the generator would be low
Worse case probably take the whole thing out and replace with a brand new one for £1k
But likely these would last the lifetime of a car as they may only be in for a handful of hours per year

1961Nick

JKenH wrote: »

I can’t remember seeing this on here before but some heavy reading for anyone interested.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839555/CCS0819884374-001_Government_Response_to_the_CCC_Progress_Report_2019_Web_Accessible.pdf

Linky won't work

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Yep, I get the theory, but what I'm pointing out is that the market appears to have already decided, and the result is falling PHEV sales and rising BEV sales.

No plug in hybrid as I describe yet exists
The existing hybrids are full petrol engine and power train plus supplement from battery and electric motor. What I am describing is a full BEV with supplement from a petrol generator. No transmission no clutch no gears just a compact cheap constant speed generator

Manufacturers 'PHEVasising' their existing production sounds like a good idea, but if that results in a higher cost vehicle, and one that in TCO terms will cost even more than an ICE, then that will simply shift the market further in favour of BEV's.

We can theorize all we like, but it appears (I think?) that the market (and economics) has already decided, and I'm not sure how that trajectory can now be changed.

Your just asserting nonsense as fact
Imagine a model 3 but with 100 mile range
It would cost about £30k rather than £48k for the 310 mile version

Add a generator to this model 3, not a petrol engine a compact 15KW generator let's say it costs £1-2k as an optional extra

How is the cost of maintenance of this vehicle any worse than the £48k long range model?
The generator is only on for 5-10 hours a year for the very few trips you do that are over 95 miles

In fact the £32k cost Vs £48k cost means you have literally £16k you can spend on maintenance and it would still be cheaper.

JKenH

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Yep, I get the theory, but what I'm pointing out is that the market appears to have already decided, and the result is falling PHEV sales and rising BEV sales.

Manufacturers 'PHEVasising' their existing production sounds like a good idea, but if that results in a higher cost vehicle, and one that in TCO terms will cost even more than an ICE, then that will simply shift the market further in favour of BEV's.

We can theorize all we like, but it appears (I think?) that the market (and economics) has already decided, and I'm not sure how that trajectory can now be changed.

It may be that BEV sales are outstripping PHEV sales which are falling but there may still be a market for hybrids/range extenders.

Someone who only has the option to charge at home or at work may like the idea that if he occasionally needs to go outside his usual charging pattern he doesn’t have to worry about finding a charger, setting up a payment app etc. Think about some of us non techy old folks.

I’ve mentioned before someone we know who refuses to do online banking, or have a smart phone and always pays cash.

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Yes to all, but there's a big but, and as always it's the one that can't be beaten, economics.

100% agree
So what sounds more economical to you
80KWh battery pack to give 320 mile BEV range

Or 25KWh battery pack + small motorbikes class motor generator to give 100 mile Electric + 400 mile petrol range?

The difference of 55KWh battery pack is huge
At a cost of just £300 per KWh it's £16,500 difference in battery pack costs
Just to confirm the cost difference between a standard range plus and a long range Tesla model 3 works out to £330/KWh

Let's say the generator costs £1,500 you then have

100 mile pure BEV + Generator allowing 400 miles extra range for £X. Or
320 mile pure BEV for the same £x + £16.5k battery -£1.5k generator

Who is going to pay £15,000 more for the 320 mile BEV you are trying to peddle?
How is the cost of such a car cheaper to insure or repair when it costs £15,000 + interest to purchase??

Martyn1981

1961Nick wrote: »

With regards to the idea of plug in Hybrids not being a good idea well you would say that you are a vested interests with your share holdings in a pure BEV company

My TM3 downpayment is currently invested in Tesla stock so I'm with Mart on this one!:rotfl:

The comment is also completely backwards, I'm not saying PHEV's will fail because I own Tesla shares, I own Tesla shares because PHEV's are failing.


Going back a post, I asked how the trajectory can be changed, and it occurs to me that it could be done by bringing in sweeping legislation to force the supply of 'electrified' vehicles much sooner (leading to vast PHEV production), and perhaps some sort of subsidy to help cover the cost to buyers.

The benefits of this would be enormous, as a potentially, faster way of shifting more miles onto leccy, but again, it would be a massive move, and also a half-measures move, so perhaps government intervention should remain focused on BEV's and encouraging battery production investment.

And also, with the economics swinging in favour of BEV's, it might even be a losing battle (to force PHEV's) if BEV costs continue to fall. [Lot of guesswork and speculation in there.]

GreatApe

JKenH wrote: »

It may be that BEV sales are outstripping PHEV sales which are falling but there may still be a market for hybrids/range extenders.

Someone who only has the option to charge at home or at work may like the idea that if he occasionally needs to go outside his usual charging pattern he doesn’t have to worry about finding a charger, setting up a payment app etc. Think about some of us non techy old folks.

I’ve mentioned before someone we know who refuses to do online banking, or have a smart phone and always pays cash.

This idea is a very good idea it's not just about range it's about cost and also weight of vehicle

A long range Tesla costs about £48k
A medium range Tesla costs £39.5k
Now imagine a low range Tesla it would cost around £31k

Have an optional extra to add a generator to any and all of those models for say +£1k

Well I'd go for the £31k version and add the generator making it £32k
It would do 98% miles electric and offer the same useability as the highest price £48k battery only version

This £16k lower price point means many more people can afford it
This £16k lower price point will mean the insurance is cheaper
This £16k can be out down on the mortgage saving £400 a year in internet
And in 15 years time when both cars are in the skip you still have your £16k not spent on the more expensive version