Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

1961Nick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Nope, GA as usual flies in the face of logic and reality.

Already BEV's are coming out cheaper on a TCO (total cost of ownership) basis v's ICEV's, whereas PHEV's are more expensive.

And of course a PHEV locks us into FF's, the very thing we are trying to avoid, and prevents the potential of very long lives as the ICE components will wear.

So more expensive, the worst (as well as best) of both worlds, and continued FF consumption and localised air pollution.

And what does reality think, well worldwide BEV sales are going up, but PHEV sales are falling.


Edit - Timely news article from today:

Green Cab Ditches Hybrids In Favor Of Teslas For Its Taxi Fleet

Hybrids make sense during the transition peroid because it's feasible to add the battery & motor to an existing chassis. ZF make an automatic transmission that incorporates an electric motor that can replace their existing 8HP transmission. Most vehicles still have a wheel well that will accommodate between 15 & 25 kWh of batteries. Cooling isn't really an issue on these small battery packs & the control gear can go wherever the stop/start battery previously was. I think we'll see quite a few of this type of vehicle over the next few years.

As new models hit the market I expect an increasing number to be electric only as incorporating both propulsion systems adds to complexity & cost, but worst of all, it massively compromises the design - The iPace wouldn't be possible as an ICE vehicle!

mmmmikey

1961Nick wrote: »

We manufacture nearly 2 million cars a year in this country!

Not for much longer, I suspect. Much of that manufacturing comes from Japanese companies (specifically Nissan and Toyota) who chose to locate plants in the UK to give access to European markets. Who knows what will happen post Brexit? And Vauxhall aren't exactly going great guns at the moment either......

Hexane

GreatApe wrote: »

the forced children who have to dig out the cobalt or have their hands chopped off in the Congo

Steady now. I think there's a separate thread for wild flights of fantasy revolving around late-1800's Belgian colonialism.

Hexane

JKenH wrote: »

I would use the ICE part infrequently so it would wear out slowly and outlast the battery.

You can't say that for sure until you've driven this theoretical car for a while. I've spent a lot of time in Prius vehicles driven by taxi drivers in the UK and abroad, and the petrol engine kicks in a lot. Maybe GA's theoretical car would remove this tendency, but since it's only theoretical...

(Unless we are talking about a range extender, i.e. generator, which I don't think we were?)

1961Nick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

The UK ban is already 2040. The Tories are considering 2035, Labour is suggesting 2030.

I doubt UK production of a BEV at a large enough scale to be profitable will be possible, and nobody is going to invest in the UK for an export market after Brexit due to the tax and legislation complications when they can instead build and sell throughout the EU.

I'm somewhat skeptical about a 2030 deadline, but, we are sneaking closer to the magic 5-8% of sales which is where disruption curves 'break out', so a few more years of rising sales, plus some cost reductions, and we might see a rapid rise to the upper (80%(ish)) part of the 'S' curve, perhaps 2023-2028. making 2030 possible, maybe?

It's not just a natural rising demand for BEV's that will swing things, but a falling demand for ICEV's and the worries about future demand / residual values when it comes time to sell.

The USA is a big export market & it's not inconceivable that we could end up with better trade terms than the EU receive. European car manufacturers could decide it's cost effective to manufacture EVs in the UK for export to America ... and of course for the UK market which isn't exactly insignificant @ 2M units.

2035 is a sensible deadline because it gives manufacturers time to convert to EVs & also recover investment on new models already in the pipeline - without any shockwaves. The reality is that ICE vehicles will probably be niche by 2030 ... or possibly earlier is supply can keep pace.

mmmmikey

As far as I am aware all these dates are so far are very worthy but uncosted and unplanned aspirations. I can easily see how BEVs will become the only sensible choice for drivers with off road parking and who can return home to charge each night. For these drivers, 2030 seems realistic, if not before. But we don't, as far as I am aware, even have a plan yet for charging facilities for those who park their cars on the road. And once we have a plan, we need to find the money from somewhere and actually implement it fully before these aspirations are realised. This is a massive undertaking that will need to be lead from somewhere - and where did it feature in this week's Queen's speech?

1961Nick

mmmmikey wrote: »

Not for much longer, I suspect. Much of that manufacturing comes from Japanese companies (specifically Nissan and Toyota) who chose to locate plants in the UK to give access to European markets. Who knows what will happen post Brexit? And Vauxhall aren't exactly going great guns at the moment either......

This is exactly the reason why we need to be at the forefront of the EV revolution - knowledge, skills & manufacturing capability.

I wouldn't be against the state acquiring JLR as the nucleus for EV manufacture in the UK. Tata seem to be interested in selling it so now would be the time.

mmmmikey

1961Nick wrote: »

This is exactly the reason why we need to be at the forefront of the EV revolution - knowledge, skills & manufacturing capability.

I wouldn't be against the state acquiring JLR as the nucleus for EV manufacture in the UK. Tata seem to be interested in selling it so now would be the time.

I'd certainly agree with that, be good to get the same foothold with EVs that we have with wind generation.

1961Nick

mmmmikey wrote: »

As far as I am aware all these dates are so far are very worthy but uncosted and unplanned aspirations. I can easily see how BEVs will become the only sensible choice for drivers with off road parking and who can return home to charge each night. For these drivers, 2030 seems realistic, if not before. But we don't, as far as I am aware, even have a plan yet for charging facilities for those who park their cars on the road. And once we have a plan, we need to find the money from somewhere and actually implement it fully before these aspirations are realised. This is a massive undertaking that will need to be lead from somewhere - and where did it feature in this week's Queen's speech?

The only way to overcome the slow roll out of on street charging is to provide destination charging. That means every car park has to provide an increasing percentage of charging bays every year for the next 10 years. This should initially be heavily subsidised with the amount falling as the years go by - something like FIT.

ABrass

None of this is news. If only there were a thread about BEVs...