Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

Martyn1981

1961Nick wrote: »

There appears to be a golden opportunity for the UK to get in on the ground floor of the likely explosion of EV manufacture. We have the facilities, the workforce & the design/engineering expertise to be out in front of this business.

Bringing the date of the ICE ban forward to 2040 probably wont make any practical difference. Doing it by 2035 would give the migration to EVs some impetus now without being too onerous on a struggling car industry.

I'll take a view on 2030 when the outcome of Brexit is known.

The UK ban is already 2040. The Tories are considering 2035, Labour is suggesting 2030.

I doubt UK production of a BEV at a large enough scale to be profitable will be possible, and nobody is going to invest in the UK for an export market after Brexit due to the tax and legislation complications when they can instead build and sell throughout the EU.

I'm somewhat skeptical about a 2030 deadline, but, we are sneaking closer to the magic 5-8% of sales which is where disruption curves 'break out', so a few more years of rising sales, plus some cost reductions, and we might see a rapid rise to the upper (80%(ish)) part of the 'S' curve, perhaps 2023-2028. making 2030 possible, maybe?

It's not just a natural rising demand for BEV's that will swing things, but a falling demand for ICEV's and the worries about future demand / residual values when it comes time to sell.

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Nope, GA as usual flies in the face of logic and reality.

Already BEV's are coming out cheaper on a TCO (total cost of ownership) basis v's ICEV's, whereas PHEV's are more expensive.

And of course a PHEV locks us into FF's, the very thing we are trying to avoid, and prevents the potential of very long lives as the ICE components will wear.

So more expensive, the worst (as well as best) of both worlds, and continued FF consumption and localised air pollution.

And what does reality think, well worldwide BEV sales are going up, but PHEV sales are falling.

The extremists has extremists views who would have guessed?

There aren't any mid range plug in Hybrids certainly none in large numbers so how can you say what their cost would be? But I'd suggest Hybrid cars are in the world actually very reliable which is why so many taxi drivers have hybrid Prius models and it's been popular for years and years and years. As for BEV reliability I would say two things, it's a bit early to count your chickens and what's important isn't how frequently things break down but how cheap they are to repair. I had a petrol car where the exhaust fell off But cost just £30 to fix in fact of the 50,000 miles I did in that car except for new wheels I don't think I paid more than £30 for replacement parts and labor

A true 70 mile range hybrid would seldom use it's petrol generator
As I keep saying with such a car I would probably be close to 100% electric miles in fact definitely if I could charge at both ends which I can and this will be true for more and more people as chargers are deployed everywhere

Also such a hybrid with say 17KWh battery is better than a 75KWh pure BEV because it has Just 22% of the batteries so 80% of the forced children who have to dig out the cobalt or have their hands chopped off in the Congo could be set free :T

Coastalwatch

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Following the recent and successful off-shore wind auctions, here is the start of the next round, looking at the leases/sites.

Oil giants hover as UK starts offshore wind lease round

Well, if there's another 7GW of wind energy planned then surely we'll need at least another 7GW of battery capacity/storage to utilise the excesses that will frequently occur. Given the pressures already on the supply of Lithium then surely the opportunity for other technologies such Vanadium flow, Zinc oxide and Sodium Sulphur is there for them to fill any potential vacuum. The supposed advantages of these being their capacity for almost limitless cycling without measurable degradation!

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

The UK ban is already 2040. The Tories are considering 2035, Labour is suggesting 2030.

I doubt UK production of a BEV at a large enough scale to be profitable will be possible, and nobody is going to invest in the UK for an export market after Brexit due to the tax and legislation complications when they can instead build and sell throughout the EU.

I'm somewhat skeptical about a 2030 deadline, but, we are sneaking closer to the magic 5-8% of sales which is where disruption curves 'break out', so a few more years of rising sales, plus some cost reductions, and we might see a rapid rise to the upper (80%(ish)) part of the 'S' curve, perhaps 2023-2028. making 2030 possible, maybe?

It's not just a natural rising demand for BEV's that will swing things, but a falling demand for ICEV's and the worries about future demand / residual values when it comes time to sell.

Premium end perhaps
Middle to lower end unlikely

The problem with pure BEVs is that people are uncomfortable with their range
Even if the average person only does 22 miles a day on average they want 200+ miles range ideally 300+

Sure a long range model 3 exists but that costs over £50k while the best selling car in the UK costs closer to £15k and gets more range


The question is how much does a low end generator cost? I'd suggest it's about £1,000
In which case think of it this way. Imagine a pure BEV but you have the option to add a range extender generator option for £1,000...... Guess what most people would say yes please!!

Give me a 70 mile pure BEV with a 250 mile petrol range extender rather than a 200 mile BEV
Especially if it's £35k for the pure BEV with 200 miles Vs the 70 mile + generator for £25k

JKenH

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Nope, GA as usual flies in the face of logic and reality.

Already BEV's are coming out cheaper on a TCO (total cost of ownership) basis v's ICEV's, whereas PHEV's are more expensive.

And of course a PHEV locks us into FF's, the very thing we are trying to avoid, and prevents the potential of very long lives as the ICE components will wear.

So more expensive, the worst (as well as best) of both worlds, and continued FF consumption and localised air pollution.

And what does reality think, well worldwide BEV sales are going up, but PHEV sales are falling.

Let’s agree to disagree. It doesn’t work for you so you wouldn’t buy one (no problem -your choice) but it would be best of both worlds for me. I would use the ICE part infrequently so it would wear out slowly and outlast the battery. The emissions saved in manufacturing a much smaller battery would more than offset any very occasional ICE use so my conscience is clear.

GreatApe

JKenH wrote: »

Let’s agree to disagree. It doesn’t work for you so you wouldn’t buy one (no problem -your choice) but it would be best of both worlds for me. I would use the ICE part infrequently so it would wear out slowly and outlast the battery. The emissions saved in manufacturing a much smaller battery would more than offset any very occasional ICE use so my conscience is clear.

I don't think the technology quite existed until now
Batteries have been improved so full charge and discharge cause less problems
Batteries have been improved so they can be charged and discharged more rapidly
And battery packs and systems have gotten cheaper

The old plug in Hybrids were something like 7KWh but 5KWh useable with 15 miles range
The power draw ability was so crap so even modest acceleration the engine would have to kick in
That's not really compelling might as well just get a diesel

But something like a ford focus class
15KWh battery 65 mile range
Sub 9 seconds 0-60
With the petrol range extender kicking in when the range is 5 miles remaining and allowing 300 mile range on petrol. Around £20k price point

Much more compelling than a Tesla model 3 with 310 mile range and £50k price point with 75KWh battery pack.

Battery pack is 1/5th the size for the hybrid described above
Not worth building the battery or paying the £30k premium to go from 98% electric miles to 100%

Martyn1981

JKenH wrote: »

Let’s agree to disagree. It doesn’t work for you so you wouldn’t buy one (no problem -your choice) but it would be best of both worlds for me. I would use the ICE part infrequently so it would wear out slowly and outlast the battery. The emissions saved in manufacturing a much smaller battery would more than offset any very occasional ICE use so my conscience is clear.

But, of course, GA's 'argument' was not just for you and me, but global.

If you think it has legs, after the market has already decided otherwise, then perhaps I can interest you in some Kodak and Blockbuster shares?


On a more serious note, and thread related. The danger as always, with these fantasist ideas, is that they can distract, confuse, and ultimately delay the real action that is needed. In the case of hybrids, they did an enormous service by proving the EV technology, but now they are becoming competitively un-economical as they are being out EVolved. Hence why the suggested reversal of reality is ....... unlikely, shall we say.

GreatApe

JKenH wrote: »

Let’s agree to disagree. It doesn’t work for you so you wouldn’t buy one (no problem -your choice) but it would be best of both worlds for me. I would use the ICE part infrequently so it would wear out slowly and outlast the battery. The emissions saved in manufacturing a much smaller battery would more than offset any very occasional ICE use so my conscience is clear.

His idea is almost certainly that hybrids and pure BEVs for the same spec will cost the same so why allow hybrids and their 2% of mileage from petrol when the BEV is 0% from petrol....

I would agree if that was true

However any reasonable person would conclude a hybrid with a 20KWh battery and a £1k petrol range extender will most likely be significantly cheaper than a full range 80KWh BEV.

480kg for a model 3 long range battery pack
120kg for a hybrid model 3 pack with 80 mile range
Add a petrol generator would be perhaps...80kg... + 5 gallons fuel Tank and fuel another 30kg
This hybrid Would be a good deal cheaper plus about 250kg less heavy than its pure BEV twin

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

But, of course, GA's 'argument' was not just for you and me, but global.

If you think it has legs, after the market has already decided otherwise, then perhaps I can interest you in some Kodak and Blockbuster shares?

On a more serious note, and thread related. The danger as always, with these fantasist ideas, is that they can distract, confuse, and ultimately delay the real action that is needed. In the case of hybrids, they did an enormous service by proving the EV technology, but now they are becoming competitively un-economical as they are being out EVolved. Hence why the suggested reversal of reality is ....... unlikely, shall we say.

Pure speculation masquerading as fact by someone who owns Tesla shares :rotfl: crying that pure EVs are the one and only solution. No vested interest there....

I would like to see the same car company offer a pure BEV version Of the same model with 320 mIle range and it's twin with 80 mile battery + 300 mile petrol generator. If they cost exactly the same I would agree with you the BEV will outsell the Hybrid. If there was a £10k difference in price I'd suggest the hybrid would outsell the BEV. The hybrid would also be about 200kg lighter

Your argument sucks because you don't put a price differential on the two technologies. But what do you expect from the extremist. Purity at any cost. Except for his own pocket where he continues to drive an oil car because BEVs are too expensive. But for others let's not care about such a trivial concept like money or budgets :T

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

The UK isn't particularly strong in car manufacturing
The three big countries are China Japan Germany USA
The UK forcing BEV only doesn't give the UK industry a boost as we have free trade any country can sell into the UK

The 2020s will be the decade electrification actually starts

BEVs. 250-400 miles on electric. 100% miles electric
Oil cars. 0 miles electric 500 miles oil. 0% miles electric
Hybrids. 50 miles electric 400 miles oil. Overall 95% miles electric

Longer range Hybrids have the best of all worlds
70 mile hybrid model 3 for say £33k is more interesting than a 210 mile model 3 BEV for £40k

We manufacture nearly 2 million cars a year in this country!

If we're going electric we need to be manufacturing electric cars - otherwise we won't have a car industry if there's no local market for ICE vehicles. Importing 2M cars with no offset export would make our balance of trade even worse than it is now.