Brexit

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So Racists, Lumpers, and Bloomers. With a slight bias to older folks who are more likely to turn out on the day. All in I reckon that's good for somewhere between 38% and 45% voting for out.

And that's where I suspect we'll end up.

I'd be amazed if Quit! get 45% except on an extremely low turnout.

UKIP got high 20s% in the Euros(???). I don't see out getting much more than that. Maybe a third of votes.

Chances of Stay! winning as is must be something like 10-1 on. The party that has scored the largest proportion of votes that I can think of since 1979 on a quit the EEC platform was Labour in 1983 who got 27.6% of the vote.

There are a few people who want to leave the EU and they are really passionate about it. Most people are 'soft ins'. They aren't that fussed but will go with the status quo because it just works.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Generali wrote: »

I'd be amazed if Quit! get 45% except on an extremely low turnout.

There are a few people who want to leave the EU and they are really passionate about it. Most people are 'soft ins'. They aren't that fussed but will go with the status quo because it just works.

You've just described the problem.

Turnout will be everything.

The 'out' brigade are indeed the vocal minority, but they're passionate about the cause and will show up in numbers to vote.

The 'silent majority' support staying in, but they're not anywhere near as engaged or passionate, and may well be far less interested in voting on the day.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

I'd be amazed if Quit! get 45% except on an extremely low turnout.

UKIP got high 20s% in the Euros(???). I don't see out getting much more than that. Maybe a third of votes.

Chances of Stay! winning as is must be something like 10-1 on. The party that has scored the largest proportion of votes that I can think of since 1979 on a quit the EEC platform was Labour in 1983 who got 27.6% of the vote.

There are a few people who want to leave the EU and they are really passionate about it. Most people are 'soft ins'. They aren't that fussed but will go with the status quo because it just works.

You keep talking about political parties but I can only say what my own observation is. Many people who would not bother voting for any party in a European or General Election, will come out if they think that they can vote against foreigners in a referendum.

Like Hamish said, 30% of people already identify themselves as racists. Meanwhile the UKIP are doing a great job at fashioning themselves as the racist party for people who like to think they arent racists, but are.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I can only go by the data.

Around 30% of Brits admit to being racist and the figures are higher for the old and ill-educated than they are for the young and better educated.

Don't shoot the messenger....;)

do they include people who believe in the productivity lump of labour theory ?

describing oneself as being partly 'racist' may well show a level of self awareness that is lacking in a true prejudiced racist: in reality about 95% of the UK have racist views.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ruggedtoast wrote: »

UKIP are doing a great job at fashioning themselves as the racist party for people who like to think they arent racists, but are.

Indeed.

BNP support went from a million votes in an election a few years ago to just 1600 votes at the last election.

No prizes for guessing who they all voted for this time....:cool:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

CLAPTON wrote: »

in reality about 95% of the UK have racist views.

I guess we'll find out when the referendum result is in.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I guess we'll find out when the referendum result is in.

No, racism will play little part in the in/out EU referendum.
Economic self interest will be the primary concern for most people.

the reason you don't understand that, is because you misunderstand the nature of racism and you misunderstand what people might consider to be racist

Sapphire

I don't understand all the accusations about people being 'racist'. Mainland Europeans are generally of the same race as those who will be voting in the referendum, so there is no actual 'racism' involved.

The term might apply to many people who come here from outside the EU, but not to fellow ethnic Europeans.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Sapphire wrote: »

I don't understand all the accusations about people being 'racist'. Mainland Europeans are generally of the same race as those who will be voting in the referendum, so there is no actual 'racism' involved. .

Ohhhh..... you still think racism is defined by skin colour?

How quaint.:)

ChiefGrasscutter

Jon_B wrote: »

Yep. I'm voting to stay in, but a smart move to announce this referendum as it has given Cameron a great opportunity to renogotiate some of the poorer aspects of the EU.

The UK will clearly vote to stay in, so we will have our cake and eat it.

...and for contrast---I'll be voting to leave
Why?
'cos when I worked exporting from the UK, our products were accepted and welcomed across the world - except in the core countries of the EU where ever more spurious reasons were invented to prevent out products being considered. All of course to protect their own manufacturers. We used to play the game by quoting prices basically at cost with zero profit safe in the knowledge that someone would find a reason to reject the tender while we could send them apoplectic with rage at our excellent prices - with no risk of them actually placing the order.
...and so it went on year after year - single market my assssss.

The EU is just one huge scam into which we put a huge amount of money and out of which we get the odd titbit along with umpteen regulations of which none of the rest bother about enforcing.

France is the worst and I refuse under any circumstance to go to the country and I am not alone.
Frankly I'd never have stopped bombing them
I simply hate the EU.