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Brexit
Comments
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I'd bet 'in' at anything better than evens. They've gotta be the hot favourites.
Agreed.
'Out' have a huge mountain to climb and it looks very unlikely.UKIP got 1/8th of the vote so assume all of them want out. Add to that perhaps a quarter of Tories and Lab and you get a maximum vote for Quit! of about a quarter of the electorate.
.
I think it'll be somewhat closer than that, and here's the reasoning....
About a third of Brits self-identify as racist, with the numbers being highest among the older and ill-educated. The UKIP core support, in other words.Nearly a third of people in Britain admit being racially prejudiced, research has suggested.
The British Social Attitudes survey found the proportion had increased since the start of the century, returning to the level of 30 years ago.
Levels of racial prejudice increased with age, at 25% for 17 to 34-year-olds compared with 36% for over-55s.
Education had an impact with 19% of those with a degree and 38% of those with no qualifications reporting racial prejudice.
I think it's safe to say that the vast majority of racists will vote to leave as they think it will significantly reduce immigration. (It wouldn't, at least not if we chose to keep a trade deal like Norway who have to accept free movement as a price to pay for that, but thats another discussion)
On top of that 30% of racists there's probably another 5% to 10% who will vote 'out' from genuine but misguided concern about migration (the lump of labour fallacy believers) and another few percent who still live in the 1950's and just have a fundamental mistrust of all things European, metric, or banana oriented, (and a la Godfrey Bloom, wish women would clean behind fridges more often).... no matter what is argued they will never understand the EU is highly democratic, that modern progress is good, and they simply don't care that we are better off in than out, these will be the 'Sovereignty' arguers.
So Racists, Lumpers, and Bloomers. With a slight bias to older folks who are more likely to turn out on the day. All in I reckon that's good for somewhere between 38% and 45% voting for out.
And that's where I suspect we'll end up.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
This referendum is not in the bag at all. Its going to be close and the right result is by no means guaranteed.
the right result is absolutely guaranteed given that it will be whatever the majority of the people who turn up to vote want. If it turns out that the majority of people want to exit the EU then that is the right result even if you don't personally agree with it. Unless you think the majority should have to go with whatever your enlightened viewpoint is of course which is a position commonly adopted by socialists who only seem to like democracy when it agrees with them.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Agreed.
'Out' have a huge mountain to climb and it looks very unlikely.
Only 14% of Brits according to that poll you yourself link to want closer economic and political union with Europe. 'Ever closer union' is is what the whole project is about, so it may not be as big a mountain to climb as you think - if the yes camp are honest anyway.
I think we'll vote to stay in based on the economic argument, and then we'll have another 40 years of people complaining when we get closer political and fiscal union. Plus ca change and all that.“I could see that, if not actually disgruntled, he was far from being gruntled.” - P.G. Wodehouse0 -
ruggedtoast wrote: »This is my worry. I don't think people will vote how David Cameron tells them unless he says vote Out.
Cameron thinks he can renegotiate a deal, or spin that he has done, and the people who voted for him will then vote how he tells them to.
But many Tory voters voted Tory precisely so they could get an EU referendum. And then we have 4 million UKIPs on top.
For many people the only political agenda they care about is that they don't like foreigners emigrating here. They hate the European Court, which they all think has something to do with the EU although it doesn't, and they'll look to the front page of the Sun and the Daily Mail to tell them how to vote. Which will be Out.
This referendum isn't in the bag. Britain has always been horribly divided by class but the one undercurrent of unity at the moment is that people are getting more and more right wing and xenophobic.
This referendum is not in the bag at all. Its going to be close and the right result is by no means guaranteed.
About 33% of people will vote Tory if you put Jack Nicholson's character from The Shining in charge and made all prospective MPs dress like extras from the Rocky Horror Picture Show.
I don't think people are getting more xenophobic, quite the reverse in fact.
Yes they are moving to the right politically, a movement which started with Thatcher's win in 1979 and has continued ever since in England. Even the softest of the Labour left, Kinnock, was given a right kicking by the British electorate. He couldn't win a General Election in the middle of a recession!!!! Brown was too left, Miliband was too left. Harperson knows she's too left to win.
However, as people go to school and work with people from more diverse backgrounds, white majority people who might have been racist in the 1960s or 70s now have people from other countries or different skin colours as friends colleagues and relatives. !!!!!!, not even UKIP could stand on a platform of "Send 'em home".
People don't vote how The Sun tells them. The Sun backs the winning side. Correlation <> Causation.0 -
About 33% of people will vote Tory if you put Jack Nicholson's character from The Shining in charge and made all prospective MPs dress like extras from the Rocky Horror Picture Show.
I don't think people are getting more xenophobic, quite the reverse in fact.
Yes they are moving to the right politically, a movement which started with Thatcher's win in 1979 and has continued ever since in England. Even the softest of the Labour left, Kinnock, was given a right kicking by the British electorate. He couldn't win a General Election in the middle of a recession!!!! Brown was too left, Miliband was too left. Harperson knows she's too left to win.
However, as people go to school and work with people from more diverse backgrounds, white majority people who might have been racist in the 1960s or 70s now have people from other countries or different skin colours as friends colleagues and relatives. !!!!!!, not even UKIP could stand on a platform of "Send 'em home".
People don't vote how The Sun tells them. The Sun backs the winning side. Correlation <> Causation.
I hope you are right.0 -
ruggedtoast wrote: »I am afraid life is too short to be arguing with Claptons. Good day!
yes indeed your life is too short to actually find out any facts about the EU and ECJ and the ECtHR.
why would you need to know?
your prejudice and dislike for white English working class is sufficient for you to form an opinion on any subject.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Agreed.
'Out' have a huge mountain to climb and it looks very unlikely.
I think it'll be somewhat closer than that, and here's the reasoning....
About a third of Brits self-identify as racist, with the numbers being highest among the older and ill-educated. The UKIP core support, in other words.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27599401
I think it's safe to say that the vast majority of racists will vote to leave as they think it will significantly reduce immigration. (It wouldn't, at least not if we chose to keep a trade deal like Norway who have to accept free movement as a price to pay for that, but thats another discussion)
On top of that 30% of racists there's probably another 5% to 10% who will vote 'out' from genuine but misguided concern about migration (the lump of labour fallacy believers) and another few percent who still live in the 1950's and just have a fundamental mistrust of all things European, metric, or banana oriented, (and a la Godfrey Bloom, wish women would clean behind fridges more often).... no matter what is argued they will never understand the EU is highly democratic, that modern progress is good, and they simply don't care that we are better off in than out, these will be the 'Sovereignty' arguers.
So Racists, Lumpers, and Bloomers. With a slight bias to older folks who are more likely to turn out on the day. All in I reckon that's good for somewhere between 38% and 45% voting for out.
And that's where I suspect we'll end up.
so broadly speaking anyone wanting out is stupid and a racist,
anyone wanting in is an enlightened, reasonable, well educated person.
You do have a fine opinion of your fellow citizens.
No possibility of a genuine difference of opinion with both pros and cons on both sides.
However one is constantly surprised that a believer, like yourself, in the productivity lump of labour theory, is so hostile to the other lump of labour theories : but no matter I guess than comes with being on the enlightened well educated side of the debate.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Agreed.
'Out' have a huge mountain to climb and it looks very unlikely.
I think it'll be somewhat closer than that, and here's the reasoning....
About a third of Brits self-identify as racist, with the numbers being highest among the older and ill-educated. The UKIP core support, in other words.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27599401
I think it's safe to say that the vast majority of racists will vote to leave as they think it will significantly reduce immigration. (It wouldn't, at least not if we chose to keep a trade deal like Norway who have to accept free movement as a price to pay for that, but thats another discussion)
On top of that 30% of racists there's probably another 5% to 10% who will vote 'out' from genuine but misguided concern about migration (the lump of labour fallacy believers) and another few percent who still live in the 1950's and just have a fundamental mistrust of all things European, metric, or banana oriented, (and a la Godfrey Bloom, wish women would clean behind fridges more often).... no matter what is argued they will never understand the EU is highly democratic, that modern progress is good, and they simply don't care that we are better off in than out, these will be the 'Sovereignty' arguers.
So Racists, Lumpers, and Bloomers. With a slight bias to older folks who are more likely to turn out on the day. All in I reckon that's good for somewhere between 38% and 45% voting for out.
And that's where I suspect we'll end up.
I suspect you are spot on, but it'll be more like 45% and thats far too close for comfort.0 -
so broadly speaking anyone wanting out is stupid and a racist,
I can only go by the data.
Around 30% of Brits admit to being racist and the figures are higher for the old and ill-educated than they are for the young and better educated.
Don't shoot the messenger....;)“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
ruggedtoast wrote: »I suspect you are spot on, but it'll be more like 45% and thats far too close for comfort.
Scottish Indyref was the same...
Expect a full-on assault from vested interests lying about the benefits of leaving, and a large enough percentage of the population to fall for it as to be troubling.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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