Brexit

BobQ

Generali wrote: »

TBH I don't see this as being particularly divisive either. I reckon it's a beltway issue for most people.

I suspect support for an exit will mostly be amongst older people who associate Europe with war rather than sunny holidays. Most people just don't care enough: if you don't care you vote for the status quo or just stay home.

If this were only true. In many people's minds poor pay, lack of good jobs, poor schools, lack of NHS funding are all due to immigration and leaving the EU is the solution. They are barking of course but it is not "older people".

All migrants are to be banned from voting. Not saying this is wrong, but it will probably help the out vote.

Kendall80

Why not exit I guess. It would certainly conform to the ridiculous devolutionary pattern.


The UK devolves powers to its constituent countries, London and soon english regions. Scotland look likely to leave the union in the near future.


You'll soon have northern powerhouse issues with Liverpool, York or Leeds saying they dont want to be run from Manchester so further devolution. Where does it all stop? Adjacent streets 'devolving' from each other.


As the world becomes more interconnected, the UK it seems is becoming more disconnected.

BobQ

Generali wrote: »

It's hard to see what that is meaningful can be renegotiated. The big treaties (freedom of movement, single market, European Commission etc) aren't going anywhere.

What can Cameron really get? Keeping the pound and the foot? More importantly, does anyone give a damn?

I agree, and if I thought that the only people who will vote are those who understand the issues I would be more relaxed.

But there is a lot of ignorance on these issues. As we found in Scotland's recent referendum, this soundbite and twitter driven world we live in, leads to people not understanding the issues on which they are invited to vote.

While I expect the "in" vote to prevail, I would not bet on it today.

Generali

BobQ wrote: »

While I expect the "in" vote to prevail, I would not bet on it today.

I'd bet 'in' at anything better than evens. They've gotta be the hot favourites. All the party leaders are on side (including the SNP) bar UKIP.

UKIP got 1/8th of the vote so assume all of them want out. Add to that perhaps a quarter of Tories and Lab and you get a maximum vote for Quit! of about a quarter of the electorate.

Quit! needs double that to get over the line and treble what they are currently polling (18%). I just don't see where those extra votes are going to come from.

Negative stories about Europe aren't exactly a new thing. We've been bombarded for decades about bent cucumbers and metric martyrs and yet there really isn't mass support for leaving.

MY guess is that loads of misleading and contradictory 'facts' will be spewed out and then the UK will vote to remain in on a small turnout.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

If this were only true. In many people's minds poor pay, lack of good jobs, poor schools, lack of NHS funding are all due to immigration and leaving the EU is the solution. They are barking of course but it is not "older people".

All migrants are to be banned from voting. Not saying this is wrong, but it will probably help the out vote.

the BoE disagrees with you about low pay and immigration: presumably that's because Carney is 'barking'

Overcrowding in schools and long waiting list for NHS obviously has nothing to do with demand: everyone knows that.

High London / SE houses prices has nothing to do with demand either : rules of economics have been suspended due to prejudice and dogma.

kabayiri

The Scottish independence referendum spooked the Westminster establishment enough to offer significant concessions before the referendum took place.

Who's to say the same could not occur with an European independence referendum?

padington

Generali wrote: »

I'd bet 'in' at anything better than evens. They've gotta be the hot favourites. All the party leaders are on side (including the SNP) bar UKIP.

UKIP got 1/8th of the vote so assume all of them want out. Add to that perhaps a quarter of Tories and Lab and you get a maximum vote for Quit! of about a quarter of the electorate.

Quit! needs double that to get over the line and treble what they are currently polling (18%). I just don't see where those extra votes are going to come from.

Negative stories about Europe aren't exactly a new thing. We've been bombarded for decades about bent cucumbers and metric martyrs and yet there really isn't mass support for leaving.

MY guess is that loads of misleading and contradictory 'facts' will be spewed out and then the UK will vote to remain in on a small turnout.

The timing of the wheels coming off the Greek economic wagon might be a game changer politically.

It's possible however Cameron might employ the referendum only when he thinks a 'don't quit' vote is likely, I could even foresee the referendum being held back should Europe be truly faling apart ( on the basis that exceptional events require exceptional caution or that we must offer stability in order to support our closest trading partners and allies in their hour of need.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

I'd bet 'in' at anything better than evens. They've gotta be the hot favourites. All the party leaders are on side (including the SNP) bar UKIP.

UKIP got 1/8th of the vote so assume all of them want out. Add to that perhaps a quarter of Tories and Lab and you get a maximum vote for Quit! of about a quarter of the electorate.

Quit! needs double that to get over the line and treble what they are currently polling (18%). I just don't see where those extra votes are going to come from.

Negative stories about Europe aren't exactly a new thing. We've been bombarded for decades about bent cucumbers and metric martyrs and yet there really isn't mass support for leaving.

MY guess is that loads of misleading and contradictory 'facts' will be spewed out and then the UK will vote to remain in on a small turnout.

This is my worry. I don't think people will vote how David Cameron tells them unless he says vote Out.

Cameron thinks he can renegotiate a deal, or spin that he has done, and the people who voted for him will then vote how he tells them to.

But many Tory voters voted Tory precisely so they could get an EU referendum. And then we have 4 million UKIPs on top.

For many people the only political agenda they care about is that they don't like foreigners emigrating here. They hate the European Court, which they all think has something to do with the EU although it doesn't, and they'll look to the front page of the Sun and the Daily Mail to tell them how to vote. Which will be Out.

This referendum isn't in the bag. Britain has always been horribly divided by class but the one undercurrent of unity at the moment is that people are getting more and more right wing and xenophobic.

This referendum is not in the bag at all. Its going to be close and the right result is by no means guaranteed.

CLAPTON

ruggedtoast wrote: »

They hate the European Court, which they all think has something to do with the EU although it doesn't, and they'll look to the front page of the Sun and the Daily Mail to tell them how to vote. Which will be Out.

Do you actually know anything at all about the European Court?
Do you even know the difference between the EUJ and ECtHR ?

Why not try to find out a little although hating the Tories seems to be form the basis of most of your prejudices.

ruggedtoast

CLAPTON wrote: »

Do you actually know anything at all about the European Court?
Do you even know the difference between the EUJ and ECtHR ?

Why not try to find out a little although hating the Tories seems to be form the basis of most of your prejudices.

I am afraid life is too short to be arguing with Claptons. Good day!