Brexit

Generali

schneckster wrote: »

The ONS disagrees, I'm afraid...
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/economic-review/december-2012/sty-exports-overtake.html

I'm looking for more current data as the linked data stops at September 2012. But if you look at the trends in that data, more current data is likely to continue in the same way.

Schneckster

You're looking at the rate of change of trade. I'm interested in the gains from trade. They are different things.

antrobus

Bluebirdman_of_Alcathays wrote: »

So, you stand by your assertion that the Swiss, Turks and mighty Norwegians can negotiate a bespoke arrangement with the EU, and we would be unable.

Astounding. :T

What is truly astounding is your failure to understand anything.:)

All of I have done is outline what are the options available to the UK when seeking to negotiate this "bespoke arrangement with the EU". I have said nothing that even implies that I think that the UK would be unable to to do so.

antrobus

Masomnia wrote: »

If it's a vote to leave that's the most likely outcome imho, which is why I'm a 'Don't know' but erring towards 'No.'

....

That would be the Norway Option.

But one of the major drivers behind the desire to leave the EU is the wish to 'retain control of our own borders'. You can't do that and remain a member of the EEA (aka single market). And as previously noted, remaining within the EEA, leaves a country still having to comply with EU directives, but without much of a say in their content.

I don't really see the point in that option myself.

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

That would be the Norway Option.

But one of the major drivers behind the desire to leave the EU is the wish to 'retain control of our own borders'. You can't do that and remain a member of the EEA (aka single market). And as previously noted, remaining within the EEA, leaves a country still having to comply with EU directives, but without much of a say in their content.

I don't really see the point in that option myself.

Do people really think any country with C21st communications is actually in control of their own borders? I find it amusing that people seem to think that Australia somehow has 'control' over immigration.

Australia has 5.74 migrants per 1,000 Australian born people. Britain with a supposed immigration problem has a rate of 2.56, less than half.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_net_migration_rate

That means that per 1,000 people in Australia a net 5.74 arrive each year. The figure for the UK is 2.56.

There are most definitely people that do not support immigration rates as they are in Australia. This T-Shirt is a common sight in the park celebrations on Australia and ANZAC Days for example:



There are coarser variants, often seen as stickers on the back of knackered utes.

If you look down the list, taking out the ones at the top with tiny populations or in the middle of vicious and bloody wars, you see that people are, net, moving to rich countries. That is going to happen whether you like it or not. EU membership is certainly not going to make an iota of difference.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

Do people really think any country with C21st communications is actually in control of their own borders? I find it amusing that people seem to think that Australia somehow has 'control' over immigration.

Australia has 5.74 migrants per 1,000 Australian born people. Britain with a supposed immigration problem has a rate of 2.56, less than half.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_net_migration_rate

That means that per 1,000 people in Australia a net 5.74 arrive each year. The figure for the UK is 2.56.

There are most definitely people that do not support immigration rates as they are in Australia. This T-Shirt is a common sight in the park celebrations on Australia and ANZAC Days for example:



There are coarser variants, often seen as stickers on the back of knackered utes.

If you look down the list, taking out the ones at the top with tiny populations or in the middle of vicious and bloody wars, you see that people are, net, moving to rich countries. That is going to happen whether you like it or not. EU membership is certainly not going to make an iota of difference.

it is certainly likely to be true that people will generally move from the poorer countries to the richer.

to conclude that the EU doesn't make a iota of difference seems unlikely to be true nor is the implication that nation states have absolutely no control over the numbers that immigrate

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

Do people really think any country with C21st communications is actually in control of their own borders? I find it amusing that people seem to think that Australia somehow has 'control' over immigration. ....

There are obviously degrees of border control that can be exercised. Depending on how much money you are prepared to throw at the 'problem'.

Generali wrote: »

....If you look down the list, taking out the ones at the top with tiny populations or in the middle of vicious and bloody wars, you see that people are, net, moving to rich countries. That is going to happen whether you like it or not. EU membership is certainly not going to make an iota of difference.

That is undoubtedly the case. But I think that is not the same thing as being a member of the EEA, where individuals have the right of free movement within member states.

I'm not saying that it's a good thing, or a bad thing, but it is undoubtedly something that explains why the UK has experienced an influx of migrants from certain countries.

chewmylegoff

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The difference is not as big as it was a decade ago but it's still more expensive in Aus.

For example, a new base model Audi A6 Allroad 3.0TDI is £45K in the UK, and $112K in Aus.

It is not that easy to compare but the first two like for like I could find were Q3 1.4 petrol s-tronic is listed at £29k in the UK and $43k in Aus (net of VAT/GST that is £24k in UK and £20k in Aus) and A3 same engine is £21.3k in UK and $36k in Aus (net of VAT/GST that is about £18k in UK or £16.5k in Aus).

I only picked Audi as it was the first European brand which came to mind. Japanese brands seem to be much much cheaper in aus to me - something like a Honda CR-V appears to be about the same price in AUD as in £.

Of course, the Australian govt may slap large additional taxes on top of the list price but that is tax making the car more expensive and not adjustments to the parcel shelf.

I'm not convinced that being in the EU has made cars cheaper in the UK if that was supposed to be the point.

Masomnia

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No, I don't think we are.

So you think it's just about economics?? Seriously?

Federalising the Eurozone, yes, that makes perfect sense.

But federalising Europe cannot happen while we maintain the opt-outs we have today.

The question of opt-outs is interesting. They're only any use at one point in time. Say for example Cameron nods through TTIP and doesn't use any kind of opt-out, and then we get a new Prime Minister who is against it. He can't pull out because we opted in. And yet it has supposedly been a facet of our constitution for centuries that no parliament is bound by the decisions of its predecessors.

The EU fundamentally challenges our constitution, which you seem to want to ignore.

We will join the Eurozone eventually of course, us being a part of the EU but not having the Euro is untenable long term.

If and when it makes sense for the UK to join a federal Europe we can do so, but until then, under the current regime we cannot be forced into deeper integration.

Of course we can, what do you think 'ever closer union' means? That's what we're signed up to.

We can currently have our cake and eat it.

You just think you can if you think we can stay in but not integrate further, not adopt the Euro and so on; the reality is that option is not on the table.

RJP33

Generali wrote: »

Do people really think any country with C21st communications is actually in control of their own borders? I find it amusing that people seem to think that Australia somehow has 'control' over immigration.

They do, they just choose to have higher immigration per capita and have almost complete control over the quality of immigrants owing to every nationality being treated the same, except NZ. As is their law.

With the exception of NZ citizens and permanent residents they could stop immigration tomorrow if they wanted, we can't.

Canada, the US, pretty much every country outside the EU operates a skills based immigration system.

RJP33

As far as I'm concerned unless we negotiate the ability to make our own free trade deals outside the EU I'll probably vote out. There's a world of opportunity being missed for the UK.

I haven't been convinced by the pro-EU argument yet,