Who will win the UK election ?

michaels

antrobus wrote: »

Yes, that's about it.

The prediction models are in the range;

CON 271-289
LAB 257-276
LDEM 24-28
UKIP 1-3
SNP 51-56
GRN 1
OTHR 21-23

And Anthony Wells predicts Conservatives around 277 seats, Labour around 267, the Lib Dems around 29 and the SNP around 52.

Isn't this based on UNS? In reality I beleive effective swing from Tories to Labour in England and Wales is about 4.5% which will give more than the 40 gains suggested especailly as the swing is not direct from Tories to Labour but effectively from LD (and Tories) to Labour and UKIP. Without the Scotland collapse I think Labour would be looking at a small overall majority.

tincans6

michaels wrote: »

IMHO this just goes to prove that if you tell them there will be a big party with lots of food and presents for everyone then turkeys will vote for Christmas. Looks like the labour education policy of reducing standards of numeracy has paid dividends. 5 years ago the consensus was that winning power was a poisoned chalice, seems this was correct.

Do you understand how ridiculous this sounds ?

michaels

tincans6 wrote: »

Do you understand how ridiculous this sounds ?

So there is no correlation between when people were at school and their voting intention?

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

Isn't this based on UNS?...

No.

With UNS a CON-LAB dead heat would leave Labour with something like 320+ seats, or almost a majority.

michaels wrote: »

... In reality I beleive effective swing from Tories to Labour in England and Wales is about 4.5% which will give more than the 40 gains suggested especailly as the swing is not direct from Tories to Labour but effectively from LD (and Tories) to Labour and UKIP. ....

It appears to be the case that the 'experts' believe that the Lib Dem collapse means that the "geographical bias in Labour’s favour largely disappears" i.e. it reduces the the effective swing in favour of Labour.

See for example
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/06/16/how-lib-dem-prospects-affect-arithmetic-ve-day/

michaels wrote: »

...Without the Scotland collapse I think Labour would be looking at a small overall majority.

Certainly, if Labour had those 40 extra Scottish seats, then they be at 310 not 270, they would be be the biggest party, and you would be looking at a Labour Lib Dem deal.

But if you want to make a forecast that Labour will win 290 seats, then please feel free to do so.:)

Generali

I suspect there will be a lot of Kippers that will end up voting Tory and Greens that will end up with Labour.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the polls have this one badly wrong.

One of the nice things about living in Aus is that the results of the UK election all come through at a civilised hour.

antrobus

Incidentally YouGov Peter Kellner's final prediction is;

CON 284
LAB 263
SNP 48
LDEM 31
UKIP 2
Plaid 3
GRN 1
NI 18

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/final-call-conservatives-and-labour-tied/

Now, that really would be a 'hung' parliament.:)

michaels

antrobus wrote: »

But if you want to make a forecast that Labour will win 290 seats, then please feel free to do so.:)

My forecast is on ukpr, no 97. I can't remember exactly what it was as I made it a couple of days ago and can't access google docs at work but I did have labour down for most seats - possibly 28x?

IveSeenTheLight

antrobus wrote: »

One anecdotal observation regarding my supposedly marginal constituency.

Last time around, all of the big 3 had canvassers outside the local polling station, writing down the numbers. This time round, only the Conservatives could apparently be bothered.

Writing down the numbers of what?

In the referendum, I passed party campaigners both on the way in and out without them trying to engage with me.

They certainly could not have ascertained which way I voted.

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

I suspect there will be a lot of Kippers that will end up voting Tory and Greens that will end up with Labour.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the polls have this one badly wrong.

One of the nice things about living in Aus is that the results of the UK election all come through at a civilised hour.

That's what I meant when, in another thread, I noted that the pollsters don't know what they don't know.

Past experience gives them so guide as to how people who say they are going to vote Labour (for example) do actually behave when they actually go and vote. But there is no real past experience of UKIP running at 11%-16% or Green at 3%-6% to tell them how real that is.

Last time around, they all got the Lib Dem number wrong by some significant margin, because they didn't know that all that Clegg TV bounce was just hot air. The similar might be the case this time round.

wotsthat

Generali wrote: »

One of the nice things about living in Aus is that the results of the UK election all come through at a civilised hour.

I'd quite like to stay up to see how things are going but need to be cycling to work by 6am tomorrow.

Don't really know why elections have to be on a Thursday.