Who will win the UK election ?

wotsthat

Jason74 wrote: »

If that lack of stable Government produces a second election, a party with a proven track record of doing what it takes to produce a stable Government (while also having a valuable and underestimated moderating influence on its senior party) might be a major beneficiary . . . . . .or perhaps I'm giving the electorate too much credit ?

I tend to think politicians won't really want to take the risk of finding out.

Human nature dictates a workable compromise is likely to be found. After a long campaign the first priority of 650 newly elected MP's will be to ensure they don't immediately vacate their seats.

antrobus

As far as I can establish, there are the final poll numbers;

LAB 2 point lead

Panelbase - CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%

LAB 1 point lead

ICM - CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 4%

Neck and neck

BMG - CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
YouGov - CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
Survation - CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
Ashcroft - CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%, GRN 6%


CON 1 point lead

TNS - CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
Opinium - CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
ComRes - CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
IPSOS Mori - CON 36%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 11%, GRN 5%


The consensus view appears to be that this means the result will be something along the lines of;

For Labour, the CON-LAB swing should give them 40 seats, but the LAB-SNP swing should lose them 40 seats, cancelling out that gain. However Labour will pick up around 10 Lib Dems seats, leaving them ahead.

The Conservatives will lose 40 seats to Labour, but pick up 10 from the Lib Dems, leaving them about 30 down

The SNP will have 50 plus seats.

The Lib Dems will lose seats to everybody.

It's pot luck whether UKIP will get anything, although most of the prediction models seem to have them getting at least one, probably on the basis that they will hold on to Clacton.

Lucas will probably win in Brighton Pavilion, no one has any idea of what will happen to Galloway. Nothing much will happen in NI except that the DUP might take a seat off the Alliance.

All of which would point to a Labour minority government as the most likely end result. But no one really knows, because 10 seats one way or the other could make a big difference.

We shall know more just after 10pm tonight when the exit poll comes out. That will tell us what the result is going to be, and we can all go to bed.:)

Herzlos

N1AK wrote: »

Based on current polls the only way Labour could form a government is with SNP or Liberal assistance. They will need to form a coalition and they will not form it with the SNP.

I'd be willing to bet that'll change tomorrow morning. If Milliband can get into power by dealing with the SNP, he'll do so.

antrobus

One anecdotal observation regarding my supposedly marginal constituency.

Last time around, all of the big 3 had canvassers outside the local polling station, writing down the numbers. This time round, only the Conservatives could apparently be bothered.

michaels

All the poll changes in the last few days have been towards labour, so much for swingback. I am not changing my prediction that they will be the largest party, it even looks like they might hang on to 10 seats in Scotland.

IMHO this just goes to prove that if you tell them there will be a big party with lots of food and presents for everyone then turkeys will vote for Christmas. Looks like the labour education policy of reducing standards of numeracy has paid dividends. 5 years ago the consensus was that winning power was a poisoned chalice, seems this was correct.

Thrugelmir

Jason74 wrote: »

Indeed. There is also perhaps one other possible outcome if we get a second election due to parliament being not just hung, but hung drawn and quartered!. And that's people starting to see the Lib Dem decision of 2010 in a different light. People criticised them heavily for some of the compromises they made in coalition with the Tories in 2010, but if they see first hand the consequences of the alternative (IE no viable government), then opinions about that decision could be revised.

If that lack of stable Government produces a second election, a party with a proven track record of doing what it takes to produce a stable Government (while also having a valuable and underestimated moderating influence on its senior party) might be a major beneficiary . . . . . .or perhaps I'm giving the electorate too much credit ?

Perhaps we should adjust to the realities of proportional representation. The old fashioned first past the post no longer reflects the broad range of views. In Scotland the majority no longer have a representation that looks after their interests.

Prudent

michaels wrote: »

All the poll changes in the last few days have been towards labour, so much for swingback. I am not changing my prediction that they will be the largest party, it even looks like they might hang on to 10 seats in Scotland.

IMHO this just goes to prove that if you tell them there will be a big party with lots of food and presents for everyone then turkeys will vote for Christmas. Looks like the labour education policy of reducing standards of numeracy has paid dividends. 5 years ago the consensus was that winning power was a poisoned chalice, seems this was correct.

Whilst I agree with much of what you say, the decision in Scotland is not that straight forward. For the first time in my live (and I am no spring chicken) I have had a huge dilemma about how to vote. I have never voted for Labour, I don't want a Labour government but if I don't vote Labour I am by default making it more likely the SNP will win in this area. I want this SNP even less

Castle

antrobus wrote: »

The consensus view appears to be that this means the result will be something along the lines of;

For Labour, the CON-LAB swing should give them 40 seats, but the LAB-SNP swing should lose them 40 seats, cancelling out that gain. However Labour will pick up around 10 Lib Dems seats, leaving them ahead.

The Conservatives will lose 40 seats to Labour, but pick up 10 from the Lib Dems, leaving them about 30 down

The SNP will have 50 plus seats.

The Lib Dems will lose seats to everybody.

Actually based on these predictions, Conservatives will have 277 and Labour 268; Lib Dems at most 33 if SNP have 50. I suspect the Lib Dems will end up with 25 at most.

michaels

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Perhaps we should adjust to the realities of proportional representation. The old fashioned first past the post no longer reflects the broad range of views. In Scotland the majority no longer have a representation that looks after their interests.

I think people are dismissing FPTP as being able to give clear majority govt too early. I think there is a good chance that Labour and the Tories will poll 70% plus of the vote. Labour would only need 5% more in Scotland and 2% more in England with the Tories getting 2% less to get an outright majority. In other words 70% for the 2 big parties would give a labour majority if it were split 37/33 to Labour. Obviously it needs to be more like 40/30 for the Tories to get a majority but it is not the case that FPTP can't give majority govt any more.

antrobus

Castle wrote: »

Actually based on these predictions, Conservatives will have 277 and Labour 268; Lib Dems at most 33 if SNP have 50. I suspect the Lib Dems will end up with 25 at most.

Yes, that's about it.

The prediction models are in the range;

CON 271-289
LAB 257-276
LDEM 24-28
UKIP 1-3
SNP 51-56
GRN 1
OTHR 21-23

And Anthony Wells predicts Conservatives around 277 seats, Labour around 267, the Lib Dems around 29 and the SNP around 52.