Who will win the UK election ?

antrobus

cepheus wrote: »

He seems to have made the same mistake as most of the other pollsters in giving the Lib Dems too much, particularly in terms of seats......

He made the same mistake because his prediction was based on the opinion polls. He has no other source of information.

The fact that Silver bogged it up so badly in 2010 seems to have taught him the lesson not to even try this time round. Instead he is simply reproducing another election forecast produced by some UK academics.

cepheus

A high degree of awareness about tactical voting in the UK', forecasting difficult says natesilver

http://j.mp/1OwRDYp

padington

Everyone is asking what everyone else is going to vote for it seems in London. Never seen anything like it. No one seems convinced of anyone.

I genuinely think if there was a 'none of the above' party that stood everywhere in view of replacing MP's with random members of the public on a rotation basis by the same principle of choosing a jury, they might have become the forth biggest party over night.

No wonder they banned any party standing under that name ...

http://notavote.co.uk

Generali

It's looking increasingly like UKIP will fail to take even a single seat:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/are-ukip-falling-back-in-their-target-seats/

Interestingly, Ashcroft has the Tories ahead by 6% in his latest national polling. Surely that would be enough to give them a majority despite the Gerrymandering. Of course as that poll is an outlier it's probably wrong but we'll see soon enough. At the very least we should see a small swing to Cons at the last minute as people tend to vote for the status quo. Not for Status Quo though as I don't think the Midlands 70s rock band is standing this time around.

padington

My gut says it's a Milliband / sturgeon victory, people vote for personalities and they've won that game so far but I think it seems no one likes any of the policies In England if the truth was known given the situation.

it all reminds me of being a child when we used to play with the puppet theatre at infant school and the child that simply asked the audience 'who would like a mars bar ?' every time rather than try and make up a story which would result in the audience of tiny hands and feat becoming animated by this strategy and shout 'me me me' and lunge at the puppet offering free invisible gifts and the teacher would become annoyed and the class would think its funny but everyone knew inside it was a cheating and not a good story.

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

It's looking increasingly like UKIP will fail to take even a single seat:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/are-ukip-falling-back-in-their-target-seats/

Interestingly, Ashcroft has the Tories ahead by 6% in his latest national polling. Surely that would be enough to give them a majority despite the Gerrymandering. Of course as that poll is an outlier it's probably wrong but we'll see soon enough. At the very least we should see a small swing to Cons at the last minute as people tend to vote for the status quo. Not for Status Quo though as I don't think the Midlands 70s rock band is standing this time around.

I've always seen Status Quo as the Liberal Party rock group.

Slade would be Labour.

In Mr Cameron's head the Conservatives are Guns n Roses (but we may not agree).

And what of the SNP? Easy - Bay City Rollers. Loads of Tartan. Bit of a fad popular amongst easily influenced youngsters. Stuck in the 70s.

IveSeenTheLight

zagfles wrote: »

Or maybe the SNP could actually talk to the Tories as they seem to be closer to them on the issue that really matters to them. Instead of sulkily refusing to deal with them.

The SNP will not commit political suicide like the Lib-Dems did 5 years ago.

chucknorris

Generali wrote: »

It's looking increasingly like UKIP will fail to take even a single seat:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/are-ukip-falling-back-in-their-target-seats/

Interestingly, Ashcroft has the Tories ahead by 6% in his latest national polling. Surely that would be enough to give them a majority despite the Gerrymandering. Of course as that poll is an outlier it's probably wrong but we'll see soon enough. At the very least we should see a small swing to Cons at the last minute as people tend to vote for the status quo. Not for Status Quo though as I don't think the Midlands 70s rock band is standing this time around.

On betfair they are still odds on to get at least 3 seats:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.116758783#id=1.115721191


and about 20/1 to get none (but very little liquidity in this and the other market):
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.116758783#id=1.112351227


Sorry the links do not work! They go to another market.

chucknorris

kabayiri wrote: »

I've always seen Status Quo as the Liberal Party rock group.

Slade would be Labour.

In Mr Cameron's head the Conservatives are Guns n Roses (but we may not agree).

And what of the SNP? Easy - Bay City Rollers. Loads of Tartan. Bit of a fad popular amongst easily influenced youngsters. Stuck in the 70s.

I was trying to think who Al Murray would be? Buster Bloodvessel perhaps?

TheBlueHorse

the thought of millipede and sturgeon governing us, with Balls as chancellor makes most normal people want to kill themselves.

For the love of common sense, vote Tory. They are trash, but much better than the other lot.

That should be their election slogan.

"Tories, we're useless garbage, but still MUCH better than the other jokers"

And I hope the Lib Dems are wiped off the face of the earth. A nothing party that now has the cheek to say the others can't govern without them. Like saying Messi can't play football unless he has a useless yellow blindfold on him.