Who will win the UK election ?

kabayiri

zagfles wrote: »

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What policy would the SNP be able to persuade Labour to pursue which isn't already a Labour policy? I'm strugging to think of any...

The one which says let's build a high speed megabucks Choo Choo line *not* from one of Europe's biggest cities, but instead from a wee Scottish town.

They could try that one. :rotfl:

michaels

BBC News at 10
headline 1: Milliband criticises Tories over Libya
headline 2: BBC special report into the chaos in Libya

Call me a cynic but Libya has been in chaos for months, seems strange that BBC decide to run such a report on the same day Milliband has decided to campaign on this very issue?

BobQ

CLAPTON wrote: »

Should a minor party continually vote down Labour legislation such that the country become ungovernable, then it's likely that Labour and Tories will agree on a new election.

The minor party will be clearly be scene as having caused the new election.

Of course, if the minor party therefore always supports Labour legislation, then they will have lost their power to hold the country to ransom.

Or to put it another way, the SNP would support virtually everything that Labour does but they will make a lot of noise about what they do not like.

BobQ

michaels wrote: »

BBC News at 10
headline 1: Milliband criticises Tories over Libya
headline 2: BBC special report into the chaos in Libya

Call me a cynic but Libya has been in chaos for months, seems strange that BBC decide to run such a report on the same day Milliband has decided to campaign on this very issue?

Even more daft that Miliband is castigated for something he decided not to say.

zagubov

kabayiri wrote: »

The one which says let's build a high speed megabucks Choo Choo line *not* from one of Europe's biggest cities, but instead from a wee Scottish town.

They could try that one. :rotfl:

Where did they build Britain's first motorway? Not London, but your neck of the woods (nearly).

Shakethedisease

zagfles wrote: »

I understand that perfectly well. Clearly. But given that the Tories will support them on Trident, they won't care. The SNP's "red line" objection will be irrelevant. And so become pretty toothless. You don't put yourself in a good negotiating position if there are only two possible PM's and you completely rule out co-operation with one of them It's a bit like having the choice of two retailers to buy a sofa from but letting it be known that you'd never use one of them under any circumstances, and then trying to negotiate a good deal with the other!So a minority Labour govt could pick and choose their allies for each different issue.
Trident - the Tories.
No rise in basic or higher rate tax, or NI - the Tories.
Pensions changes for higher earners - the Tories (who now seem to have nicked Labour's policy!).
Cutting the deficit every year - verified by the OBR, the highlight and first point in the Labour manifesto - the SNP (sorry only joking, the Tories!).
Cut business rates and freeze corporation tax rates - the Tories.
Reversing the "bedroom tax" - OK the SNP can help with that!
Well the south of England would certainly feel "ignored and disenfranchised" by a combination of a Labour govt which they didn't vote for influenced by the SNP on devolved issues such as health and education! It's not only the Scots who are allowed to feel "disenfranchised". They would likely have to, and as above there's lots of common ground. Of course the Tories could act like spoilt children who didn't get everything their own way and vote against stuff they believe in just to embarrass the govt, a bit like Labour did on the EU budget vote when they voted with the right wing element of the Tory party. But I think the Tories (in general) are a bit more grown up than that. I might be overly optimistic I admit!What policy would the SNP be able to persuade Labour to pursue which isn't already a Labour policy? I'm strugging to think of any...

What policy would the SNP be able to persuade Labour to persue that isn't already a Labour policy ?

Well most of us in Scotland aren't struggling to think of any..... Smith Commission recommendations in full ( Labour have already signed up to), and devolution to whichever further responsiblities and powers to the Scottish parliament they can get. Labour offered the very least of the parties after the referendum. Mabye time they got in line with the Tories, Lib Dems in terms of what they can come up with... for starters.

Westminster isn't the be all and end all for the SNP. You're mistaken if you think that. They have a Scottish devolved parliament to run also, and they will want some limitations lifted in terms of what they control. Time will tell if they get anything meaningful. But I wouldn't be worrying over EU budget votes. Or, spitefully bringing a Labour govt down for fun either. But they will want some concessions re more responsibilities for Holyrood. ( don't worry, that will only have the Barnett formula shrink ).

So yes, they'll support Labour on a lot. But they will be looking to get further devolved powers for the Scottish parliament out of it too. You seem to have forgotten what the SNP stand for. They aren't Lib Dems either...

ps the SNP reversed the Bedroom tax in Scotland some time ago. They pay back Westminster the takings they would have got, and mitigate it from Holyrood out of the block grant.. but they had to seek permission from Westminster to do that. <---- limitations.

Generali

cepheus wrote: »

This is an impressive analysis. The SNP/Labour bloc need to win everything in the upper right hand quadrant in which they are favoured, plus two more to get a majority.

http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-this-is-how-ed-miliband-gets-to-323-seats-and-becomes-prime-minister/

It's an interesting piece but once again goes with the assumption that the SNP can be dealt with. Labour are, after all, a unionist party and may simply not want to deal with the SNP.

Crumpeteer

The politicians are the winners. They always have been & always will be!

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

What policy would the SNP be able to persuade Labour to persue that isn't already a Labour policy ?

Well most of us in Scotland aren't struggling to think of any.

The SNP want more than Smith in their manifesto but aren't specific on what.

Labour could give Scotland FFA: that would also double up as a deficit reducing measure.

zagfles

Shakethedisease wrote: »

What policy would the SNP be able to persuade Labour to persue that isn't already a Labour policy ?

Well most of us in Scotland aren't struggling to think of any..... Smith Commission recommendations in full ( Labour have already signed up to), and devolution to whichever further responsiblities and powers to the Scottish parliament they can get. Labour offered the very least of the parties after the referendum. Mabye time they got in line with the Tories, Lib Dems in terms of what they can come up with... for starters.

Or maybe the SNP could actually talk to the Tories as they seem to be closer to them on the issue that really matters to them. Instead of sulkily refusing to deal with them. (mind you that probably works both ways)

Westminster isn't the be all and end all for the SNP. You're mistaken if you think that.

Well obviously, but this discussion is about the UK general election and the Westminster parliament.

They have a Scottish devolved parliament to run also, and they will want some limitations lifted in terms of what they control. Time will tell if they get anything meaningful. But I wouldn't be worrying over EU budget votes. Or, spitefully bringing a Labour govt down for fun either. But they will want some concessions re more responsibilities for Holyrood. ( don't worry, that will only have the Barnett formula shrink ).

I think a lot of English would support that too - provided Scots MP's don't get the vote on devolved issues in England. The SNP aren't doing themselves any favours by threating to vote on devolved issues at Westminster. They ought to be consistent, instead of hypocritcally demanding more devolution one minute and then voting on English only issues at Westminster the next!

So yes, they'll support Labour on a lot. But they will be looking to get further devolved powers for the Scottish parliament out of it too. You seem to have forgotten what the SNP stand for. They aren't Lib Dems either...

I think they've fogotten what it stand for

ps the SNP reversed the Bedroom tax in Scotland some time ago. They pay back Westminster the takings they would have got, and mitigate it from Holyrood out of the block grant.. but they had to seek permission from Westminster to do that. <---- limitations.

Did they reverse Labour's version of the bedroom tax, ie LHA for private tenants which is paid based on how many bedrooms you "need"?