Who will win the UK election ?

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No, there won't be. That's the entire point of the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Lib Dems wanted it so the 2010 coalition would be stable.

You obviously don't understand how the Fixed Term Parliament Act works, so I'll explain.

If a motion of no confidence in the government is passed, then the Commons has 14 days to pass a motion of confidence in an alternative government, otherwise there will be an election.

Obviously, if the SNP votes down a Labour government, having already voted down a Conservative government, then there will be an election.

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

antrobus

Moby wrote: »

That's another 'quandary' thrown into the mix.....a minority govmt in crisis. Does it have to limp on because of the Act or can they try and do a Harold Wilson?

They can try and do a Harold Wilson.

It's not that difficult to lose a confidence vote. (Winning them in a hung parliament is usually the problem.:))

Gladstone once 'engineered' losing a vote of confidence, because he fancied fighting the next election as the opposition.

cepheus

This is an impressive analysis. The SNP/Labour bloc need to win everything in the upper right hand quadrant in which they are favoured, plus two more to get a majority.

http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-this-is-how-ed-miliband-gets-to-323-seats-and-becomes-prime-minister/

zagfles

antrobus wrote: »

You obviously don't understand how the Fixed Term Parliament Act works, so I'll explain.

If a motion of no confidence in the government is passed, then the Commons has 14 days to pass a motion of confidence in an alternative government, otherwise there will be an election.

Obviously, if the SNP votes down a Labour government, having already voted down a Conservative government, then there will be an election.

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

I really would like to think that the Tories won't automatically vote down a Labour minority govt and vv, the difference between the two isn't really that great, certainly no more than the difference between Labour and the SNP, and not really much more than the Lib Dems and the Tories. There's a lot of policy they share, or are close enough on to compromise.

I know, I know, it's asking too much to expect them to work together when the country hasn't given one or the other a majority, and it'll get all the tribal simpletons shouting "treachery", but I'm sure there are some in both parties who would like to make it work rather than having another election which might well have the same result...

antrobus

zagfles wrote: »

I really would like to think that the Tories won't automatically vote down a Labour minority govt and vv, the difference between the two isn't really that great, certainly no more than the difference between Labour and the SNP, and not really much more than the Lib Dems and the Tories. There's a lot of policy they share, or are close enough on to compromise.

I know, I know, it's asking too much to expect them to work together when the country hasn't given one or the other a majority, and it'll get all the tribal simpletons shouting "treachery", but I'm sure there are some in both parties who would like to make it work rather than having another election which might well have the same result...

I'm inclined to the same view. Sadly, as you mention, there are a lot of tribalists about who believe that the Tories are inherently evil or that Labour are hell bent on destroying civilisation, and so it's unlikely to happen.

But you never know. Stranger things have happened in politics.

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

You obviously don't understand how the Fixed Term Parliament Act works, so I'll explain.

If a motion of no confidence in the government is passed, then the Commons has 14 days to pass a motion of confidence in an alternative government, otherwise there will be an election.

Obviously, if the SNP votes down a Labour government, having already voted down a Conservative government, then there will be an election.

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

Yes I do know how it works. SNP won't vote a Labour government down, only a Tory one. They've been saying 'we'll lock the Tories out' for ages now. Why on earth gave you the impression they'd vote a Labour govt down ? *scratches head*

zagfles

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Yes I do know how it works. SNP won't vote a Labour government down, only a Tory one. They've been saying 'we'll lock the Tories out' for ages now. Why on earth gave you the impression they'd vote a Labour govt down ? *scratches head*

What if Labour refuse to scrap Trident? Apparently it's a "red line" for the SNP. The Tories will support Labour in renewing it, so there's an easy commons majority.

So what other way do the SNP have of enforcing their "red line", other than throwing their toys out of the pram and threatening to bring the govt down if they don't get their way?

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Yes I do know how it works. SNP won't vote a Labour government down, only a Tory one. They've been saying 'we'll lock the Tories out' for ages now. Why on earth gave you the impression they'd vote a Labour govt down ? *scratches head*

Should a minor party continually vote down Labour legislation such that the country become ungovernable, then it's likely that Labour and Tories will agree on a new election.

The minor party will be clearly be scene as having caused the new election.

Of course, if the minor party therefore always supports Labour legislation, then they will have lost their power to hold the country to ransom.

zagfles

CLAPTON wrote: »

Should a minor party continually vote down Labour legislation such that the country become ungovernable, then it's likely that Labour and Tories will agree on a new election.

The minor party will be clearly be scene as having caused the new election.

Of course, if the minor party therefore always supports Labour legislation, then they will have lost their power to hold the country to ransom.

And thinking about it, would the SNP really risk voting down a Labour govt, cause an election, which the Tories might then win?

If so the "Vote SNP, get Tory" soundbite will have been proved correct.

Basically, the SNP's position has stripped them of any real power in the next govt :beer:

CLAPTON

zagfles wrote: »

And thinking about it, would the SNP really risk voting down a Labour govt, cause an election, which the Tories might then win?

If so the "Vote SNP, get Tory" soundbite will have been proved correct.

Basically, the SNP's position has stripped them of any real power in the next govt :beer:

Nothing seems certain as it will depend both upon the actual numbers of MPs but also on how the party leaders behave; tweaking the tiger's tail too often may not be a wise move.

Interesting times.

In many ways it is the SNP that will have the major dilemma.
They will probably have wiped the slate so have nowhere to go but down: so the temptation must be to press asap for a new referendum vote.

A sensible UK government will agree in principle: delay the vote for 2-3 years, ensure greater clarity about things like sharing the national debt, assets split and Scotland's currency and clear alternatives if they stay.