Who will win the UK election ?

Moby

CLAPTON wrote: »

lovely idea, believing the solution to all issues is endless more handouts, supported by endless more borrowing, somewhat isn't pork barrel politics.

Just for once couldn't you address the points I made about the permutations and likely scenarios. I'm also finding it difficult to understand your point above because what you say above is exactly what the tories have been doing over the last few days ie making various unfunded promises!

CLAPTON

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I see you have not changed.

Incidentally, I think that further education should be free to all based on ability not wealth for access.

This is far different from linking to benefits

Of course you believe that the poor and the non graduates should subsidise rich parents and graduate bankers.

That's the SNP understanding of fairness and reducing inequality.

Well that and Sturgeons' family income.

And I haven't changed; I still believe in the morality of fairness for all the people of the UK and not just a small subsection and also that the rich shouldn't be subsidised by the poor.

But we will continue to disagree.

antrobus

Moby wrote: »

...Labour however may not have to deal with anyone. ...

That would be my view.

A Labour minority government appears to be the most likely outcome. The Lib Dems probably won't have enough seats to make up the difference, and the SNP have already given away their negotiating position so no deal is necessary.

One can only hope that any Labour minority government turns out better than the last one.:)

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

That would be my view.

A Labour minority government appears to be the most likely outcome. The Lib Dems probably won't have enough seats to make up the difference, and the SNP have already given away their negotiating position so no deal is necessary.

One can only hope that any Labour minority government turns out better than the last one.:)

A Labour minority government that won't do any deals on forming government. May find itself doing 'deals' with smaller parties and/or the Tories for the next 5 years on every vote ( vote by vote basis ). That's how minority, as opposed to majority governments have to work. They won't have the numbers on their own.

Interesting times ahead if the polls are right on minority govts. ( Labour or Tory ).

padington

It looks like Ed's going to have more votes than anyone. He came across as kind and bright, which was easy after the Tory attempted character assination.

Cameron fell into Labours old trap of not costing promises in a desperate panicked fashion.

School boy errors from the Tories.

If you're stacked with prime properties, it's time to hedge your bets and bet on labour winning most votes big time.

BobQ

antrobus wrote: »

That would be my view.

A Labour minority government appears to be the most likely outcome. The Lib Dems probably won't have enough seats to make up the difference, and the SNP have already given away their negotiating position so no deal is necessary.

One can only hope that any Labour minority government turns out better than the last one.:)

I agree. The problem the SNP has is that any attempt to undermine a Labour minority government would undermine their own position. If they brought them down on virtually any issue they would suffer if it lead to a Conservative minority Gov or an election that the Conservaties won.

BobQ

The criticism of the SNP is getting to the stage where the Tories are beginning to look like swivel eyed lunes. Rifkind today was obsessed with the SNP.

While personally I hope that Scots step back from electing 50 SNP MPs and swing back to Lab and Lib Dems, we should respect their decision. Voting SNP is one way of giving the Tories a bloody nose, but it is not the only way.

michaels

DCs ratings in Scotland are much higher than EMs of course and it is not impossible that they could end up with similar numbers of votes and seats north of the border...but of course Labour would be 'relevant' in Scotland and the Tories irrelevant.

I can't see labour having enough seats to form a minority govt on their own as I would see the scots and sein fein abstaining fairly often and I think Labour would want to be in a position where they had a majority in this instance if they wanted to form a stable govt although I guess the SNP with 50 seats would be loathe to actually bring down a Labour govt and provoke another election where they could pretty much only get fewer.

Perhaps those with Tory sympathies actually think letting the SNP get their hands on the leavers of power given that they think the level of borrowing is irrelevant is quite scarey, and wonder how with the example of Greece on the news every day that other people can't see the danger?

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

The criticism of the SNP is getting to the stage where the Tories are beginning to look like swivel eyed lunes.

There's a whole generation that have had no previous experience of loony left politics. (Yet).

Some of us remember the bad old times.

Shakethedisease

BobQ wrote: »

I agree. The problem the SNP has is that any attempt to undermine a Labour minority government would undermine their own position. If they brought them down on virtually any issue they would suffer if it lead to a Conservative minority Gov or an election that the Conservaties won.

No, it's almost impossible to bring a Govt down these days. So the smaller parties are free to vote for, against or abstain without fear of bringing any Govt down. IIRC there has to be a specific confidence vote called, or 2/3rds of the house voting for parliament to be dissolved. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act has made things much more muddy this time round. All the smaller parties in theory have to do, is vote for ( whoever calls it ) on a confidence vote, then vote against legislation they don't like. And repeat as necessary.

Labour or Tory minority governments, will have to negotiate/make allies to get things through. So no, the SNP don't have much to fear on that aspect re bringing a Labour administration down. Especially since they have made their own priorities crystal clear up front anyway.

But of course, this is all just speculation. A working government needs to be formed first. Deal or no deals. But definitely, I think Labour and the Tories would want to be looking at that FTPA very soon whoever gets in.

the general consensus among constitutional experts is that by abolishing the prime minister’s prerogative to dissolve parliament, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 has made it more or less impossible for either Cameron or Miliband to first form a minority government, and then call a second election in the hope of being returned with a majority – as Harold Wilson did twice, in the 60s and 70s. In other words, whatever government does emerge from the post-election negotiations, it is pretty much condemned to work.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/22/a-hung-parliament-dont-panic-democracy-will-take-its-course