Who will win the UK election ?

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No, it's almost impossible to bring a Govt down these days......

If that were true, it would render the SNP powerless in the face of a minority government.

Generali

There's a very good piece in the FT about the election and possible scenarios in the aftermath:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/89471a34-e8d0-11e4-87fe-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YCgzsoXu

(needs free registration)

This is the most pertinent part I think:

Over the next days and possibly weeks, politicians will have discussions in Westminster to try to form the next government. If the Tories, the Lib Dems and possibly the Ulster Unionists can pool enough seats for a majority, this should keep Mr Cameron in power.
But if, as polls currently suggest, the three parties do not have enough MPs, Mr Cameron will need to decide whether Labour, with the tacit support of the SNP, provides a viable alternative for him to step down.
If he decides this is not the case, he is entitled to remain in position and go to the Commons to see if he can get enough votes to pass his first piece of legislation. Labour may try to sign an informal agreement with the Scottish nationalists to force Mr Cameron’s hand.

Anyway, read the whole thing if you can.

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

...Anyway, read the whole thing if you can.

It is a reasonably sensible article.

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

It is a reasonably sensible article.

Faint praise indeed!

michaels

Labour are suggesting that a minority Labour administration would not be dictated to by the SNP because the SNP with 50 seats would not want to precipitate and early election.

Doesn't the same logic hold true for a minority Tory administration?

padington

michaels wrote: »

Labour are suggesting that a minority Labour administration would not be dictated to by the SNP because the SNP with 50 seats would not want to precipitate and early election.

Doesn't the same logic hold true for a minority Tory administration?

I would imagine the liberals will be happy to take the ministerial cars for another five years whilst gaining kudos for minimising benefits cuts to the disabled and securing the jobs of more policemen.

SNP will dictate though, to the point an informal Tory alliance will be considered again and again and again.

Moby

michaels wrote: »

Labour are suggesting that a minority Labour administration would not be dictated to by the SNP because the SNP with 50 seats would not want to precipitate and early election.

Doesn't the same logic hold true for a minority Tory administration?

Technically yes but the likelihood is that the obvious party he'll negotiate with (Lib Dems) are going to be heavily damaged and it depends which wing of the party survives the fallout from the election as to whether they will go into another coalition? Farron v Clegg? The DUP will provide potentially 8-9 seats of course. I think though that Cameron has had enough....I don't think he'll be up for minority Government. It will be a hard grind compared to the last five years and apart from UKIP which of the other Parties are supporting any part of the Tory economic plan? So how much of his programme will he be able to get through? He'll have to compromise with the Lib Dems who ironically despite being weakened are his only realistic option?

Milibands position is simpler because despite (the press and tory SNP bogeymen line) in actuality how can the SNP control him? He produces a budget/programme, they either vote for it, abstain or vote against it? What would they gain by voting against it. They can complain at him and call him tory lite etc but he'll then pose as the the sensible moderate statesman with a balanced programme who is thinking about the whole UK?

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

Faint praise indeed!

Articles are either (a) reasonably sensible or (b) idiotic.

michaels wrote: »

Labour are suggesting that a minority Labour administration would not be dictated to by the SNP because the SNP with 50 seats would not want to precipitate and early election.

Doesn't the same logic hold true for a minority Tory administration?

The way it would work is this;

- minority Conservative government faces a confidence vote
- SNP join with Labour to vote down the government
- minority Labour goverment takes office

following which, if at any time the SNP vote down Labour, there will be an election

purch

Generali wrote: »

Anyway, read the whole thing if you can.

I'm going short GBP :eek:

kabayiri

antrobus wrote: »

....

The way it would work is this;

- minority Conservative government faces a confidence vote
- SNP join with Labour to vote down the government
- minority Labour goverment takes office

following which, if at any time the SNP vote down Labour, there will be an election

I'm so glad the politicians understand they are there to work for us, the electorate.

Oh...wait a minute...what am I saying? They are a bunch of self serving short termist grabbers.

Who the heck thinks a manifesto policy of starting a £50 billion+ high speed railway from one of our least densely populated regions (Scotland) is good long term economic and business sense?

It is the politics of envy and destruction - pure and simple.