Who will win the UK election ?

wotsthat

Why would the SNP vote anyone down? Is it really conceivable they'll push for new elections just after, it looks like, they've won the most seats in their history?

The upside is going from the high forties to low fifties of seats. The downside is a Tory majority especially if the SNP are seen as being disruptive to political stability.

Shakethedisease

zagfles wrote: »

What if Labour refuse to scrap Trident? Apparently it's a "red line" for the SNP. The Tories will support Labour in renewing it, so there's an easy commons majority.

So what other way do the SNP have of enforcing their "red line", other than throwing their toys out of the pram and threatening to bring the govt down if they don't get their way?

They can't 'force' it. They've just been upfront about not voting for renewal. Is taken more or less as read both Labour and Tories will vote for Trident renewal. The 'red lines' are in terms of any upfront 'deals' with Labour ( confidence and supply etc ).

But it will look very good for them in Scotland and bad for Labour. There's another general election ( to Holyrood ) in Scotland in 2016.

zagfles

CLAPTON wrote: »

Nothing seems certain as it will depend both upon the actual numbers of MPs but also on how the party leaders behave; tweaking the tiger's tail too often may not be a wise move.

Interesting times.

In many ways it is the SNP that will have the major dilemma.
They will probably have wiped the slate so have nowhere to go but down: so the temptation must be to press asap for a new referendum vote.

A sensible UK government will agree in principle: delay the vote for 2-3 years, ensure greater clarity about things like sharing the national debt, assets split and Scotland's currency and clear alternatives if they stay.

They've already said they won't be demanding another referendum in the next parliament. Asking the same question again after a few years just because they didn't like the answer first time isn't really sensible anyway.

The next govt will either be Tory led or Labour led. Of that there's no doubt. The SNP have already said they won't deal with the Tories, so that makes their negotiating position almost non existant. They can't get a better result than a minority Labour govt. If they bring that down, they risk a Labour majority, and so zero influence in govt, or a Tory govt which they'd obviously get the blame for.

And if another election simply results in another Labour minority, their best result, they're back to where they started and the whole country has been put through another election for no reason.

So they're basically toothless. They might get a few token policy concessions, but EM will have them where he wants them. And the Scots will realise this. I predict the same will happen to them as happened to the LibDems. Collapse in support next time round.

Shakethedisease

zagfles wrote: »

And thinking about it, would the SNP really risk voting down a Labour govt, cause an election, which the Tories might then win?

If so the "Vote SNP, get Tory" soundbite will have been proved correct.

Basically, the SNP's position has stripped them of any real power in the next govt :beer:

Well, if that's what you think. Who am I to disabuse you of the notion. They'll support Labour on a lot of things.. but they're not going down to Westminster to be simple lobby fodder for Labour. They've made that abundantly clear. If there are no deals, they can vote how they like, or not. It will be the same for all the smaller parties who haven't done up front deals in order to form govt. Lib Dems will be important too.

It's also questionable if Labour/Tories will ever agree to hold another election at the same point in time. Labour will be skint after this one for a while.. though I understand the Tories have planned for the eventuality.

zagfles

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Well, if that's what you think. Who am I to disabuse you of the notion. They'll support Labour on a lot of things.. but they're not going down to Westminster to be simple lobby fodder for Labour. They've made that abundantly clear. If there are no deals, they can vote how they like, or not. It will be the same for all the smaller parties who haven't done up front deals in order to form govt. Lib Dems will be important too.

It's also questionable if Labour/Tories will ever agree to hold another election at the same point in time.

Why do they have to agree? If there's a Labour minority and the Tory opposition tables a no confidence motion, are the SNP going to vote with the Tories? It would be the SNP and Tories who'd be agreeing to another election if the SNP vote with the Tories.

Labour will be skint after this one for a while.. though I understand the Tories have planned for the eventuality.

So the Tories are in a better position should there be another election? Would really be political suicide for the SNP to vote a labour govt down then. Which makes them pretty toothless.

Labour could use them to get their more left wing policies through, and could use the Tories to get their more right wing policies through. They could simply ignore any SNP demands. Or what are they going to do, side with the Tories :rotfl:

Shakethedisease

zagfles wrote: »

Why do they have to agree? If there's a Labour minority and the Tory opposition tables a no confidence motion, are the SNP going to vote with the Tories? It would be the SNP and Tories who'd be agreeing to another election if the SNP vote with the Tories. So the Tories are in a better position should there be another election? Would really be political suicide for the SNP to vote a labour govt down then. Which makes them pretty toothless.

Labour could use them to get their more left wing policies through, and could use the Tories to get their more right wing policies through. They could simply ignore any SNP demands. Or what are they going to do, side with the Tories :rotfl:

They won't vote Labour down in any specific confidence vote. But that isn't where laws of the land and budgets are passed or amended.

Only a if a specific confidence vote, or 2/3rds of the House agree to parliament being dissolved, can there be another election once government is formed. Are you finding this hard to grasp ?

SNP can keep voting FOR Labour in confidence votes, but in day to day business, don't have to vote with Labour on everything. They can abstain, or vote against ( ie Trident ).. the government won't brought down as a consequence of the above. Even after a no confidence vote there is 14 days to cobble something else together before another election is called.

The SNP will have no need to ever vote a Labour minority govt ( if that's what happens of course ) out on a specific confidence vote. But they don't need to vote with them for everything for fear of bringing it down either. None of the smaller parties do this time round.

Ignoring the SNP is an option, but is very unlikely to play well with most of the Scottish electorate who will feel ignored and disenfranchised if that does happen ( ie SNP as second class MP's, who are unable to represent their constituents on reserved matters properly ). Especially since that means Labour courting votes from the Tories perhaps too.

But all depends on the arithmetic of course. But isn't quite as black and white as you'd like to paint it.

Fixed-term parliaments were 'a mistake', says Ken Clarke

The Fixed Term Parliaments Act was introduced by the coalition in 2011 as part of the agreement for government drawn up by the Tories and Lib Dems in the wake of the 2010 general election, which produced no overall winner.


Under its terms, parliamentary elections must be held every five years. An election could only be triggered before that if a motion of no confidence was passed in the government and no alternative administration could be formed, or if at least two-thirds of MPs approved calls for an early election.


Mr Clarke, whose cabinet career spanned more than 20 years, said the Act was drafted "in a ridiculous hurry" and made it very difficult to bring an end to a parliament or a government if necessary.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31917502

System

So there's these surveys going round where you can see which party you should vote for. Wouldn't it be good if that was how you voted? You don't pick a party, you go through the questionnaire and at the end, the closest match is your vote.

Edit: And I have had a lot of rum

zagfles

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They won't vote Labour down in any specific confidence vote. But that isn't where laws of the land and budgets are passed or amended.

Only a if a specific confidence vote, or 2/3rds of the House agree to parliament being dissolved, can there be another election once government is formed. Are you finding this hard to grasp ?

I understand that perfectly well.

SNP can keep voting FOR Labour in confidence votes, but in day to day business, don't have to vote with Labour on everything. They can abstain, or vote against ( ie Trident )..

Clearly. But given that the Tories will support them on Trident, they won't care. The SNP's "red line" objection will be irrelevant.

the government won't brought down as a consequence of the above. Even after a no confidence vote there is 14 days to cobble something else together before another election is called.

The SNP will have no need to ever vote a Labour minority govt ( if that's what happens of course ) out on a specific confidence vote.

And so become pretty toothless. You don't put yourself in a good negotiating position if there are only two possible PM's and you completely rule out co-operation with one of them It's a bit like having the choice of two retailers to buy a sofa from but letting it be known that you'd never use one of them under any circumstances, and then trying to negotiate a good deal with the other!

But they don't need to vote with them for everything for fear of bringing it down either. None of the smaller parties do this time round.

So a minority Labour govt could pick and choose their allies for each different issue.
Trident - the Tories.
No rise in basic or higher rate tax, or NI - the Tories.
Pensions changes for higher earners - the Tories (who now seem to have nicked Labour's policy!).
Cutting the deficit every year - verified by the OBR, the highlight and first point in the Labour manifesto - the SNP (sorry only joking, the Tories!).
Cut business rates and freeze corporation tax rates - the Tories.
Reversing the "bedroom tax" - OK the SNP can help with that!

Ignoring the SNP is an option, but is very unlikely to play well with most of the Scottish electorate who will feel ignored and disenfranchised if that does happen ( ie SNP as second class MP's, who are unable to represent their constituents on reserved matters properly ).

Well the south of England would certainly feel "ignored and disenfranchised" by a combination of a Labour govt which they didn't vote for influenced by the SNP on devolved issues such as health and education! It's not only the Scots who are allowed to feel "disenfranchised".

Especially since that means Labour courting votes from the Tories perhaps too.

They would likely have to, and as above there's lots of common ground. Of course the Tories could act like spoilt children who didn't get everything their own way and vote against stuff they believe in just to embarrass the govt, a bit like Labour did on the EU budget vote when they voted with the right wing element of the Tory party. But I think the Tories (in general) are a bit more grown up than that. I might be overly optimistic I admit!

But all depends on the arithmetic of course. But isn't quite as black and white as you'd like to paint it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31917502

What policy would the SNP be able to persuade Labour to pursue which isn't already a Labour policy? I'm strugging to think of any...

BobQ

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No, it's almost impossible to bring a Govt down these days. So the smaller parties are free to vote for, against or abstain without fear of bringing any Govt down. IIRC there has to be a specific confidence vote called, or 2/3rds of the house voting for parliament to be dissolved. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act has made things much more muddy this time round. All the smaller parties in theory have to do, is vote for ( whoever calls it ) on a confidence vote, then vote against legislation they don't like. And repeat as necessary.

Labour or Tory minority governments, will have to negotiate/make allies to get things through. So no, the SNP don't have much to fear on that aspect re bringing a Labour administration down. Especially since they have made their own priorities crystal clear up front anyway.

But of course, this is all just speculation. A working government needs to be formed first. Deal or no deals. But definitely, I think Labour and the Tories would want to be looking at that FTPA very soon whoever gets in.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/22/a-hung-parliament-dont-panic-democracy-will-take-its-course

The FTPA sets a high threshold requiring a 2/3 majority to cause a dissolution of the Parliament as you say.

My point is that if there were a Labour minority gov and the SNP kept behaving as Conservatives keep suggesting, they might end up with what they do not want. For example, a confidence motion could result in Miliband recommending that the Queen invite Cameron to form a Government without an election. A confidence motion would only need a simple majority. Equally if no leader could form a Government both sides might prefer a dissolution and have a 2/3 majority.

This is all new territory, but I suspect SNP will behave better than the Tories pretend.

BobQ

antrobus wrote: »

If the Conserervatives were 15% ahead in the polls, almost any issue would do.:)

.

This is the flaw in Fixed Parliaments. If one party is well ahead in the polls there is no way they would vote for dissolution even if they had just lost a confidence motion or voted for one.