Who will win the UK election ?

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

In Scotland there was a minority government between 2007 - 2011 and they had to work hard to get concensus amongst the parties.

The following election, they achieved an overall majority in a system which we designed for no party to get a majority.

There nothing to say a Conservative or Labour minority government could not work and in the long term be good for British politics and the electorate

There have been minority Governments previously in the UK most recently at the end of the Major Government as a result of the expulsion of 'The B@st@rds' and the loss of a couple of bye-elections.

Before that, Callaghan (Jim not Harry) lead a minority Government after the Lib-Lab pact collapsed.

My guess is that the resolution to the election, assuming it turns out as predicted, will be that the smaller of the two main parties will agree in a back room to abstain in confidence and budget votes for a period. If we hit a point where one of them think they can win a fresh vote then an election can be engineered still by Lab and Cons I'm sure.

The smaller party could draw a 'line in the sand'. The Governing party can simply resign the Government. AFAIK we don't have slavery in the UK and that applies to the PM as much as a farm worker. If there simply isn't a functioning Government then the Queen would call a fresh election. It is what she's there for after all.

She did it in Australia, basically.

Generali

More polls out today.

The Torygraph gives a 5% Tory lead.


Com Res have this:

CON 35%, LAB 32%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 14%, GRN 3%

Finally:

The voting intention figures for ComRes and YouGov are now both out. ComRes’s telephone poll for the Mail & ITV has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 6%. YouGov for the Sun have topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11573045/David-Cameron-takes-5-point-lead-in-election-race.html

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9386

It's starting to look like the momentum is with the Tories. Add to that the couple of points status quo vote and they might even scrape a majority. We'll see.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

Add to that the couple of points status quo vote and they might even scrape a majority. We'll see.

Where are you seeing from the polls the slimmest of chances for a Conservative majority government.

From what I see, Cons, Labour and Lib Dems are all losing seats

michaels

Some polls are suggesting that in Scotland the Tories could take more seats than LIS or LDs - that would make me :rotfl:

Re Cons overall majority or even LD coalition - It still looks more likely that the Conservatives will be the larget party but even with the LDs (should enough of them be willing) and the DUP they will still be short of being able to form a govt. However I think EM will have to have a formal alliance with the LDs to form a govt based on the SNP abstaining rather than voting Labour out (likely behaviour as the SNP with 50 seats will not want to trigger another election)

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Some polls are suggesting that in Scotland the Tories could take more seats than LIS or LDs - that would make me :rotfl:

Re Cons overall majority or even LD coalition - It still looks more likely that the Conservatives will be the larget party but even with the LDs (should enough of them be willing) and the DUP they will still be short of being able to form a govt. However I think EM will have to have a formal alliance with the LDs to form a govt based on the SNP abstaining rather than voting Labour out (likely behaviour as the SNP with 50 seats will not want to trigger another election)

Just as there has long been a tradition amongst some ideologues to vote X in order to keep the Tories out, perhaps the hard line Unionists will vote X to keep the SNP out.

For all this talk of the Tories being dead in Scotland, at the last General Election the Tories got ~420,000 votes and the SNP ~480,000.

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

Just as there has long been a tradition amongst some ideologues to vote X in order to keep the Tories out, perhaps the hard line Unionists will vote X to keep the SNP out.
...

This election seems much more "anti the others" than recent elections.

We know fear of the unknown is a strong voter instinct which politicians can play on.

I suspect that a fair number of "No" voters in the independence referendum were voters swayed by a fear of the unknown.

It's a classic conservative nature.

antrobus

After due consideration, having pondered on the question 'Who will win the UK election?' I have now decided to play my 'Nobody Knows' card.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

For all this talk of the Tories being dead in Scotland, at the last General Election the Tories got ~420,000 votes and the SNP ~480,000.

Yes, GE's have posted far different results than Scottish Elections.

It will be interesting to see what the results are for this GE on May 8th.

We can come back to this a week tomorrow

ruggedtoast

The establishment are all in a tizz this election time, because for the first time in a long time, it looks like the electorate aren't going to do what they're supposed to.

Millipede and Cameron are going to have to work with the SNP and the Greens are bigger than the Lib Dems.

The only unpleasant stench which makes me sad to be British is the rise of UKIP. The party for every bigoted old man sounding off in a pub, or each racist taxi driver spouting his unwanted opinions over his shoulder at the back seat. Well, at least they are out in the open I suppose. And sucking away Tory votes.

CLAPTON

ruggedtoast wrote: »

The establishment are all in a tizz this election time, because for the first time in a long time, it looks like the electorate aren't going to do what they're supposed to.

Millipede and Cameron are going to have to work with the SNP and the Greens are bigger than the Lib Dems.

The only unpleasant stench which makes me sad to be British is the rise of UKIP. The party for every bigoted old man sounding off in a pub, or each racist taxi driver spouting his unwanted opinions over his shoulder at the back seat. Well, at least they are out in the open I suppose. And sucking away Tory votes.

did the electorate do what they were supposed to in 2010?

why do you celebrate having to work with a nationalist party like the SNP?