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Who will win the UK election ?

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Comments

  • BobQ
    BobQ Posts: 11,181 Forumite
    Ninth Anniversary 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    Generali wrote: »
    Oh yes. Plus John Bercow. I think it's fair to say he'd support the Tories. Does the Speaker get to vote?

    Having been the victim of a conspiracy led by Hague a few weeks ago to unseat him, I wonder how well disposed he would be to Cameron?

    But as others have stated, he is bound by conventions of history
    Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    BobQ wrote: »
    Having been the victim of a conspiracy led by Hague a few weeks ago to unseat him, I wonder how well disposed he would be to Cameron?

    But as others have stated, he is bound by conventions of history

    Yup. I simply didn't know the constitutional position of The Speaker.

    It's a bit !!!!!! if you're represented by him. Effectively you have a non-MP as your MP.
  • BobQ
    BobQ Posts: 11,181 Forumite
    Ninth Anniversary 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    Generali wrote: »
    Yup. I simply didn't know the constitutional position of The Speaker.

    It's a bit !!!!!! if you're represented by him. Effectively you have a non-MP as your MP.

    Actually get the best of both worlds. If you have a non party political problem, the Speaker still works for you and contacts ministers and is guaranteed a good hearing. Controversial issues can be dealt with by a neighbouring MP if it needs raising in the House. You also get a campaigning MP on some issues.

    http://bercow4buckingham.org/in-parliament/

    Remember he is elected but by convention unopposed by main parties.
    Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    BobQ wrote: »
    Actually get the best of both worlds. If you have a non party political problem, the Speaker still works for you and contacts ministers and is guaranteed a good hearing. Controversial issues can be dealt with by a neighbouring MP if it needs raising in the House. You also get a campaigning MP on some issues.

    http://bercow4buckingham.org/in-parliament/

    Remember he is elected but by convention unopposed by main parties.

    Ah yes, it all comes flooding back.

    Sometimes I forget how long I've been away.
  • purch
    purch Posts: 9,865 Forumite
    Generali wrote: »

    It's a bit !!!!!! if you're represented by him. Effectively you have a non-MP as your MP.

    Sounds like Ian Liddell-Grainger Mp for West Somerset :eek:
    'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'
  • Rinoa
    Rinoa Posts: 2,701 Forumite
    If I don't reply to your post,
    you're probably on my ignore list.
  • antrobus
    antrobus Posts: 17,386 Forumite
    Rinoa wrote: »

    Sort of illustrates the kind of problem we have here. One minute we have a poll showing a 6 point Labour lead, and the next minute we have a poll showing a 6 point Conservative lead.

    They can't both be right.:)
  • BobQ
    BobQ Posts: 11,181 Forumite
    Ninth Anniversary 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    Rinoa wrote: »

    Discussing the result, Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, said: “There is inevitably random variation between different polls, which generally falls within a ‘margin of error’ of plus or minus three points. The movement we’ve recorded since the March survey is within that normal bound, albeit only just.”

    Boon said the sample chosen looks “demographically sound”, but acknowledges there are signs in the raw data that this sample “could be a just touch too Tory”. In particular, there are more 2010 Conservative voters than ICM would ordinarily expect, and also more voters from the professional occupational grade

    Sounds like the firm doing the polling are less than confident....
    Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.
  • cepheus
    cepheus Posts: 20,053 Forumite
    Rinoa wrote: »

    It's the underlying pollster (ICM) which matters not the sponsor.

    If you notice the high Tory vote corresponds to the lowest Kipper one (7%) I've seen for years, so it looks like they have defected back in that sample at least.
  • MARTYM8`
    MARTYM8` Posts: 1,212 Forumite
    Eighth Anniversary 1,000 Posts
    cepheus wrote: »
    It's the underlying pollster (ICM) which matters not the sponsor.

    If you notice the high Tory vote corresponds to the lowest Kipper one (7%) I've seen for years, so it looks like they have defected back in that sample at least.

    And in the Ashcroft poll today its still tied – with UKIP up 3 and the Tories down 3 since the last poll.

    So either the Tories are shifting to UKIP or the Kippers are going back to the Tories – take your pick!


    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/587630700054106112
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